Kagehitokiri

market caps >
marriott was 19B when they acquired starwood for 10B in stock
will marriott or hilton do another all-stock buy like starwood deal ?

50B = 45B + 5B marriott
37B = 29B + 5B + 3B hilton
11B IHG
10B accor
8B hyatt (pritzkers won't sell)
5B wyndham
5B choice (only franchise)

hotel counts >
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/trave...l#post22529911

CPRich

Lots of talk about a lot of things resulting from the merger, all based on zero facts.

Kagehitokiri

hotel CEOs quoted talking consolidation for past 6-18 months

lots of talk everywhere including FT re 'lots' of consolidation coming...

but looking at numbers, starwood offered value in a number of ways

sdsearch

This merger happened because Starwood announced it wanted to be sold.

It's not clear how a merger in this industry of anyone that "big" would happen if both companies didn't want it.

And it's not clear how many of the remaining players on your list would be a good fit for each other.

More likely, there are lots of smaller chains around the world, and the bigger chains will keep swallowing them up one at a time (like IHG with Kimpton, Marriott with Protea and Delta, etc) much more often than existing many-brand hotel families merge.

The current talk of another hotel family that wants to be sold is the one that has Swissotel and a couple other brands. I don't even see it on your list.

There are at least two different Choice companies out there: the Choice you know from the US and parts of Europe, etc, and Nordic Choice. And I'm not sure about Japan, since there you can only redeem and not earn (just like at Nordic Choice). If the different parts of Choice worldwide haven't even consolidated into one company yet, it seems early for any of them to consolidate with anyone else.

And is Choice the only one that is separate companies in different parts of the world? I seem to remember it was only fairly recently that Hilton decided to acquire Hilton International, or something like that.

Marriott and Starwood were both simple in that both are a single worldwide company.

Kagehitokiri

sdsearch, indeed i had many of the same thoughts, i agree
marriott admits it took months to see value of starwood (pretty unique offering)

carlson i could only find numbers for 'half' the company

examples of 'smaller' companies, where i again agree >
swissotel is "fairmont raffles" in my post, only 120 hotels
seems nordic choice has 170 hotels, big choice franchisee
one of the pritzkers owns / invests in boutique hotel brands

(and CEOs arent limiting discussion to small companies)

blackstone also owns Motel 6 and majority of Extended Stay America along with Paulson and Centerbridge

Jin Jiang will keep buying what they can, they may have bid on starwood

Kagehitokiri

accor acquired fairmont raffles swissotel (115 hotels)
paid $840mm and issued stock to qatar and alwaleed
accor is the biggest owner of hotels, this adds 7 more
theyve also bought at least 72 accor hotels this Q

MrAOK

antitrust regulators are likely to look at city by city impacts in segments, which means that they are likely to take a dimmer view of the two companies holding 70% of 4 star rooms in say Raleigh or Jacksonville than they are of whatever number of rooms the two companies would get nationally.

But it could get a bit complicated. it's possible and in fact likely that regulators would look at effects of concentration at downtown hotels and airport hotels in each city as separate markets.

LondonElite

I'm sorry, but I don't understand what topic of this thread is?

It seems like unfocussed speculation on possible M&A activities in the hospitality industry, based on very little fact.

Or, as the judge said, 'is there a question in our future?'

Kagehitokiri

i am not seeing where big consolidation is likely, vs starwood

but CEOs of the biggest chains keep saying its going to happen

Kagehitokiri

almost certainly there are long term changes starting, will be interesting to see

airbnb ipo (and any others that follow) could also end up becoming a factor

current market caps >

34B = 30B + 4B marriott (marriott was 19B when they acquired starwood for 10B in stock)
27B = 23B + 2B + 2B hilton
9B IHG (london stock exchange with US ADR)
7B accor (paris stock exchange)
5B wyndham (almost 100% institutional shareholders)
5B choice (only franchise) (substantial insider shareholders)
5B hyatt (pritzkers won't sell)

LondonElite

The rumours of anAccor IHG merger won't go away...

Kagehitokiri

not sure re ownership of IHG, but seems like accor could make a move >
group.accor.com/en/investors/accor-share/shareholding-structure
13.0% jin jiang - owned by shanghai government
11.3% qatar
6.3% alwaleed
2.9% huazhu - US market cap 13B (invesco owns 12.5%) has chinese hotel brands
(with some of those owners putting in more money or hotels)
after they merged, they could pick up wyndham and choice
might raise some cash by selling some chains to marriott, hilton, hyatt

group.accor.com/en/investors/individual-shareholders/shareholders-club
interesting, but presumably no tiers based on number of shares

ft.com/content/0f2decbb-de27-4aa6-a4b2-54f2631771d1
may just depend on how badly some companies are hit, including debt
interesting article only mentioned governments, not huazhu
maybe IHG and accor were always what CEOs were referring to

maybe london vs paris stock exchanges make it less easy for stock deal?

Antonio8069

Am curious why you restarted this garbage thread (which you started in 2015!)

Mwenenzi

I am curious why some one would bounce a (garbage) thread that has been dead for ~7 weeks
Have requested moderators send this thread to Marriott sub forum. https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/marr...tt-bonvoy-766/