manuc

sadly i doubt that will happen - plenty of excuses and finger pointing but expect no real change; it all comes down to political will to take tough decisions and dont see that happening

CXBA

i am wondering instead what will happen now to LH and its precious slots in the region. Since they always were the force behind AI accession to the alliance, this is also a big setback for them. GoI shall be less than pleased by the outcome and as it did in the past in similar occassions will find easier to blame the "foreigners" rather than cleaning their own acts. I can also guess that the chances for 9W to be inducted rather than AI are nil at this moment, since GoI will likely veto any further move for the foreseeable time.

LAX

I wonder how this will change the landscape for *A carriers in India. With the Indian government essentially telling *A that either take AI or nothing (at least that's what I read here), will *A be left without an Indian carrier as member?

LAX

UA Fan

My speculation is that AI will go to ST and then the GoI will not care if 9W joins Star or not.

CXBA

small correction: it is not GoI telling *, but rather LH and their GoG (Government of Germany) owners and backers. They started the minuet, now they have to find a way to positively conclude it.

dls25

Out of curiosity, what exactly does the GoI have to approve in terms of Alliance membership? I can see them refusing new routes/codeshares and not allocating slots, but wouldn't the actual alliance membership be a private business transaction?

UA Fan

From what I have heard, the govt of almost every airline gets involved. I think its is due to the closeness of the relationship that could hamper competition that concerns the govt.

yulred

I suspect the GoI has a lot riding on AI getting into *A. Some division of the bureaucracy was given responsibility of getting AI into shape, and they probably decided that *A membership would help AI financially and otherwise. That lot are not going to be happy about this, and you can bet your last dollar they will be lobbying their ministers/politicians to do something about it.

I really doubt that the Government of Germany is involved in any way. This looks like a LH gamble that didn't pay off. LH probably felt, back in 2007, that they could coax AI into shape, but that hasn't happened. They've been rewarded for that initial initiative by the GoI, but I think they're going to face a lot of problems getting approval for the A380s.

In all likelihood, AI, GoI and *A will put on a brave face and say that its business as usual, with AI needing just a little more time to get in to shape. But behind the scenes, I expect quite a lot of anger between them, and I won't be surprised if GoI starts making life difficult for LH from now on. Its a shame really, because the fault lies almost exclusively with GoI and AI for failing to get into shape, but LH has to take responsibility for gambling. And losing.

And no, I seriously doubt that 9W will enter *A (though nothing would make me happier).

LAX

So, it sounds like the only viable option is to wait for AI to come around, whenever that may be??

LAX

kiwiandrew

The next general election in India is in 2014 and the one after that is due for 2019, so it might be quicker to wait for a change of government than to wait to AI to get themselves ready.

yulred

Unless LH rescind the invitation - which would including incurring the wrath of the Indian government - its not going to go any other way. I strongly suspect that LH's expansion in India was based on some kind of agreement about support for AI entering *A (no free lunch and all that). In their haste to tap into the 'growing' Indian market, LH took a chance on AI, and it hasn't exactly worked out as planned. Sure they want 9W now, but its sort of irrelevant because when they had the choice initially, they made one that was more expedient to their individual expansion plans. *A now gets to face the consequences.

I dont think anyone expects 9W to enter *A unless the agreement with AI is terminated formally and completely. Suspension (as opposed to termination) suggests that AI can still enter it in the future (when they finally sort themselves out). That, in turn, means that 9W cannot join, since the possibility of AI entering *A at a future date would violate whatever competition guidelines the GoI has set up (no 2 Indian airlines in the same alliance). In other words, expect more of the same. Lots of speculation, and nothing concrete. With the exception of IT, which will probably enter OW soon enough.

SKRan

AI declined by *A sounds good to me. *A is not like ST and takes rubbish airlines - e.g. CZ MU CI Garuda etc and let's keep it that way.

We want 9W tho.^

TPJ

Sorry for being sarcastic, but yes - they would fit in ST If ST accepted AR as a member, they will for sure accept AI

djjaguar64

We can all breathe a sigh of relief now ^ ^ ^. Ok now Star has to move quickly to get Jet into the Alliance. AI can do what they want now, most probably deteriorate further into oblivion. Yaatra please don't sob, everything will turn out for the better, you will begin to like JET.

holtju2

Perfect fit for SkyTrash IMHO.