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I was talking to this guy recently. He said something like money is a small price to pay for creating memories, or he’ll pay anything to create good memories.
It’s possible there’s endless supply of people like that. Just look at all the folks who dish out $2k a day for private ski lesson at Vail. Hyatt has done the research and they will get what they can. Me, I collect my points and elite QN mostly through credit card and lower-tier properties, then cash out at resorts and GH Tokyo. That strategy may no longer work 2 years from now or even 6 months from now. WOH may eventually evolve into a program where I collect my points at lower-tiers, cash out at lower-tiers. But then what’s the point of 4pm checkout or free breakfast at Hyatt House right? |
Originally Posted by COLINDAD
(Post 37620263)
I believe EE was referring to full-service Marriott brands where complimentary breakfast is gratis for Platinum members and above.
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Originally Posted by Kacee
(Post 37621445)
The switch to WOH (with all new status levels and qualification standards) was extremely controversial. The change there was focused on status rather than redemption levels but in its way it was equally dramatic.
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Originally Posted by evergrn
(Post 37621532)
I was talking to this guy recently. He said something like money is a small price to pay for creating memories, or he’ll pay anything to create good memories.
It’s possible there’s endless supply of people like that. Just look at all the folks who dish out $2k a day for private ski lesson at Vail. Hyatt has done the research and they will get what they can. Me, I collect my points and elite QN mostly through credit card and lower-tier properties, then cash out at resorts and GH Tokyo. That strategy may no longer work 2 years from now or even 6 months from now. WOH may eventually evolve into a program where I collect my points at lower-tiers, cash out at lower-tiers. But then what’s the point of 4pm checkout or free breakfast at Hyatt House right? |
Standard-room point rates are going up ~22% on average vs the current award chart, which dates back to 2021. I got that number by calculating the percentage differences across Hyatt’s tables and then taking a simple (unweighted) average. For each category, I matched the three old price points (low/mid/high) to the new chart’s 1st/3rd/5th price point as proxies, so this is directional and not weighted by booking volume.
I’m aware you could calculate this differently (e.g., weighting by typical booking patterns), but I think this approach is still a legitimate way to quantify the overall shift in the published tables. Not great, but context matters: U.S. CPI-U is up roughly ~20% since 2021, and U.S. hotel ADR is up roughly ~30% over the same period. This isn’t dynamic pricing. Dynamic pricing would tie points to the cash rate for a given night. Hyatt still publishes award pricing in advance (by category and season), so there will still be nights where points shine and nights where cash is better. Devaluation mainly hurts long-term point hoarders. I’m not one - I burn points whenever I’m north of ~2¢/pt. That’s often achievable, and award nights still count toward elite status and receive the same on-property benefits as paid stays. Hoarding points for years is inherently risky. Whether WoH still works depends on your profile, but I doubt this change will make WoH “not worth it” for many. For me, it remains the most compelling program by far. |
Originally Posted by thbe
(Post 37622448)
Not great, but context matters: U.S. CPI-U is up roughly ~20% since 2021, and U.S. hotel ADR is up roughly ~30% over the same period.
Not an apologist, just trying to keep things in perspective. Frankly, we just need the travel boom to run its course (or a recession) to reset demand and prices. |
Originally Posted by The Narwhal
(Post 37622508)
This why I personally look at devaluations in the airline industry vs. hotel industry differently. Airline prices have largely stayed steady during the same period while hotel prices have risen dramatically. Devaluations for hotel points probably haven't changed the per cent value that much if you compared today to 2021 (for Hyatt at least), while devaluations in the airline industry have likely had an outsized negative impact on per cent valuations.
Not an apologist, just trying to keep things in perspective. Frankly, we just need the travel boom to run its course (or a recession) to reset demand and prices. |
Outside of hotel charges why would anyone use the Hyatt card for everyday spend, except to rack up EQNs? You could earn 2x more points on a transferable points card or even 1.5x with CFU, which could then transfer from Chase to Hyatt
Originally Posted by evergrn
(Post 37621518)
Wonder if the Colorado ski resort properties will be non-stop “top” basically from Christmas through the end of Feb. Assuming no category shift, GH Vail would go up 57%.
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Originally Posted by Boraxo
(Post 37622610)
Outside of hotel charges why would anyone use the Hyatt card for everyday spend, except to rack up EQNs? You could earn 2x more points on a transferable points card or even 1.5x with CFU, which could then transfer from Chase to Hyatt
I hate the deval but it’s probably not sustainable for the St Regis Aspen (I know - not a Hyatt property) to keep giving me 5N stays for free when those rooms normally go for $1500/nt. And the same is true for all the high end Hyatts in Japan, US ski resorts etc. The days of paying 20k night for Jr suites at the Thomsen NYC fka Parker Meridien will be gone too (if not already) |
Originally Posted by sfgiants13
(Post 37622634)
Right now the only spend going on Hyatt is my gym membership. I switched spend to the Sapphire Reserve since the points earning is the same anyway. The only use for the card now is the 5 EQN and FNC.
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Originally Posted by thbe
(Post 37622448)
Standard-room point rates are going up ~22% on average vs the current award chart, which dates back to 2021. I got that number by calculating the percentage differences across Hyatt’s tables and then taking a simple (unweighted) average. For each category, I matched the three old price points (low/mid/high) to the new chart’s 1st/3rd/5th price point as proxies, so this is directional and not weighted by booking volume.
Not great, but context matters: U.S. CPI-U is up roughly ~20% since 2021, and U.S. hotel ADR is up roughly ~30% over the same period. This isn’t dynamic pricing. Dynamic pricing would tie points to the cash rate for a given night. Hyatt still publishes award pricing in advance (by category and season), so there will still be nights where points shine and nights where cash. While we can debate whether points rates are up 22% or 37% or higher, I think we can all agree this is a significant bump all at once. And yes compared to CPI the 22% rate is similar to the 20% CPI, one thing missing is the impact of income growth to offset some of that CPI increase (granted it hasn’t been much in the US the past few years depending on income level, but it does narrow the gap a bit.). Unfortunately, earnings rate for WOH members or credit card holders hasn’t really changed at all in years, so there hasn’t been any income increase to offset the redemption inflation we’ve seen the past few years, Maybe Hyatt has this as part of the plan they’ll roll out later in order toincrease or maintain program engagement. Things like higher earn rate for globalists, higher earn rates on premium credit cards, etc. who knows….trust certainly has taken a hit so I’m skeptical if and how much will change on the earn side. In terms of whether we call this a devaluation, I think there’s some semantics around it. A number of programs use real time or close to real time redemption costs based on current rate. Hyatt has said they won’t do that. Rather they will set redemption rates at a set time (annually or quarterly or??) but those will coincide with anticipated demand and I’m guessing historical pricing. So not real time, but still dynamic in the sense that rates will correlate to anticipated or real rates set. |
Originally Posted by thbe
(Post 37622448)
Not great, but context matters: U.S. CPI-U is up roughly ~20% since 2021, and U.S. hotel ADR is up roughly ~30% over the same period.
Originally Posted by Jed33d
(Post 37622647)
While we can debate whether points rates are up 22% or 37% or higher, I think we can all agree this is a significant bump all at once. And yes compared to CPI the 22% rate is similar to the 20% CPI, one thing missing is the impact of income growth to offset some of that CPI increase (granted it hasn’t been much in the US the past few years depending on income level, but it does narrow the gap a bit.).
Unfortunately, earnings rate for WOH members or credit card holders hasn’t really changed at all in years, so there hasn’t been any income increase to offset the redemption inflation we’ve seen the past few years, Here is how I look at this. As you pointed out there is a spending side - which is converting points to room nights, and then an income side - which is earning points. 1. Spending side - I think we all agreed that there is an increase in CPI and ADR to the tune of 20% to 30%, which is kind of coincide with what thbe estimated as the devaluation or increase in points required for redemption. 2. Earning side - you said there is no change in earning rate for WOH all these years, which is true. But if you look at number of points earned, it is actually earning rate x the $ you spend on credit card and ADR$ you spend on the rooms. Then there is definitely increase in number of points you accumulate each year.
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Originally Posted by Jed33d
(Post 37622647)
thanks for sharing this! A couple points:
While we can debate whether points rates are up 22% or 37% or higher, I think we can all agree this is a significant bump all at once. And yes compared to CPI the 22% rate is similar to the 20% CPI, one thing missing is the impact of income growth to offset some of that CPI increase (granted it hasn’t been much in the US the past few years depending on income level, but it does narrow the gap a bit.). Unfortunately, earnings rate for WOH members or credit card holders hasn’t really changed at all in years, so there hasn’t been any income increase to offset the redemption inflation we’ve seen the past few years, Maybe Hyatt has this as part of the plan they’ll roll out later in order toincrease or maintain program engagement. Things like higher earn rate for globalists, higher earn rates on premium credit cards, etc. who knows….trust certainly has taken a hit so I’m skeptical if and how much will change on the earn side. In terms of whether we call this a devaluation, I think there’s some semantics around it. A number of programs use real time or close to real time redemption costs based on current rate. Hyatt has said they won’t do that. Rather they will set redemption rates at a set time (annually or quarterly or??) but those will coincide with anticipated demand and I’m guessing historical pricing. So not real time, but still dynamic in the sense that rates will correlate to anticipated or real rates set. In my experience, many Hyatt properties’ award pricing doesn’t consistently track the cash rate on a given night, which is why it can still feel easier to “win against the bank” with WoH than with some other programs. That said, with the new chart it’ll be harder - no doubt about that. And honestly, I value WoH at least as much for the benefits as for the points math. The on-property perks (and how consistently they’re honored) matter more to me than squeezing out the absolute best cents-per-point on every stay. |
Originally Posted by Mileometer
(Post 37621689)
Unfortunately, that's not true. EDITION, Design Hotels, and Ritz-Carlton are all Marriott full-service brands which don't offer elites complimentary breakfast. And at two of those brands breakfast usually costs a small fortune. I can't think of a full-service Hyatt brand that does the same.
Read again what I wrote - I did not say that all Marriott full service properties provide breakfast. I wrote that he was referring to Full service Marriott properties where breakfast is gratis - and those who read his prolific and informative reports knows that breakfast, especially pancakes, are a key factor in his enjoyment of those stays. Indeed, I have never stayed at a Design hotel property nor an Edition property, because of the lack of elite perks, especially the lack of breakfast. Finally, an earlier post by me in this thread specifically pointed out that AC and Courtyard hotels are not required to provide this perk and that the better play would be to stay at a Residence Inn or Springhill Suite, if this is an important factor to you. |
Originally Posted by thbe
(Post 37622448)
Standard-room point rates are going up ~22% on average vs the current award chart, which dates back to 2021. I got that number by calculating the percentage differences across Hyatt’s tables and then taking a simple (unweighted) average. For each category, I matched the three old price points (low/mid/high) to the new chart’s 1st/3rd/5th price point as proxies, so this is directional and not weighted by booking volume.
I’m aware you could calculate this differently (e.g., weighting by typical booking patterns), but I think this approach is still a legitimate way to quantify the overall shift in the published tables. Not great, but context matters: U.S. CPI-U is up roughly ~20% since 2021, and U.S. hotel ADR is up roughly ~30% over the same period. |
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