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Wuhan coronavirus outbreak — worries as it spread to HK & beyond

Wuhan coronavirus outbreak — worries as it spread to HK & beyond

Old Mar 24, 20, 12:02 pm
  #481  
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Originally Posted by BuildingMyBento View Post
New York - among other states - considers alcohol "essential." Ridic.

To enter yourself as an involuntary teetotaler, go to the OMNI fora.
Would that be inside or outside the body?
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Old Mar 24, 20, 1:09 pm
  #482  
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"I do wonder whether Chinese lunches in Tamar are served a la carte . . . "

If nothing else, I think we can be certain they don't get intimate after lunch.
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Old Mar 24, 20, 4:55 pm
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Restaurants are still open in HK?
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Old Mar 24, 20, 5:05 pm
  #484  
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Yes, the Government is banning bars from serving alcohol. They can stay open and serve other types of drinks.

Restaurants are free to stay open and serve drinks with meals.

Of course some restaurants are closing for lack of custom or other reasons. McDonalds will be closing for dining-in after 6pm, though take-away and deliveries will still be available. (This is more serious than might first appear, since McDonalds serves as something of defacto homeless shelter in the wee hours.)

ADD: There's a pattern developing in which a clamour for new restrictions begins, then the restrictions are announced a few days later. The "clamour" of course is actually fabricated as a warning and a way of testing public reaction in advance.

That's all by way of noting that clamour is starting for restrictions on public activity. My best guess is that there will be something in place by the weekend, unless new virus cases drop precipitously.
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Last edited by 889; Mar 24, 20 at 11:44 pm
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Old Mar 25, 20, 7:25 pm
  #485  
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There's been very little attention paid to how incredibly dangerous flying into Hong Kong has suddenly become.

Just look at how infections have developed among air passengers a week after arrival. Among the passengers who arrived 18 March, a week later 32 are in hospital!

https://www.chp.gov.hk/files/pdf/flights_trains_en.pdf

This of course only includes the passengers themselves, not family members or others they may have infected before heading to hospital.

Is there any justification for not closing the airport, and closing it uptight?
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Old Mar 25, 20, 7:41 pm
  #486  
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32/12,952 (https://www.immd.gov.hk/eng/stat_20200318.html) = 0.25%

What's the latest r0? Three? I'll be conservative so 1% counting others.

Higher than most other populations yes.

But that's why they're all being home quarantined.

Besides numbers are going to come down https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/32230156-post29.html "fewer arrivals mean CHP staff are now capable of doing this",
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Old Mar 25, 20, 7:58 pm
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But it takes a week or two for the effect of all those airport arrivals and their contacts to sift through. And to repeat, home quarantine with the family and the helper free to come and go is practically no quarantine at all.

You'd have thought that with all the folks heading back on the 18th to escape quarantine, there'd be extra precautions at the airport. But no, there were not.

They were not taking individual temperature readings with a gun; they used that camera to scan everyone. And the health staff asked not a word about travel history or anything else in the past 14 days: they just collected the forms, which also did not ask for travel history. And of course among the health staff was the doctor who herself became infected a few days later.

Point is, I cannot think of a better way to expose yourself to the virus these days than to sit on plane bound for Hong Kong.

That's a warning worth shouting out to everyone here.
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Old Mar 25, 20, 8:21 pm
  #488  
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Originally Posted by 889 View Post
But it takes a week or two for the effect of all those airport arrivals and their contacts to sift through.
That’s why I applied the full r0 against the infected. Double it if you wish to extrapolate for full fourteen days.

Originally Posted by 889 View Post
That's a warning worth shouting out to everyone here.
I think you missed the point - the motivation for the people who came back is what is the fatality rate overseas after they get sick. It’s the thought of being a non-resident confirmed case overseas that worries people - the current fatality estimate is 0.7%? That’s not the fatality rate for non-residents without access to full care wherever they are (I know many HKers legally resident overseas are staying).

Originally Posted by 889 View Post
Is there any justification for not closing the airport, and closing it uptight?
OK, leave the HK residents overseas to their deaths (ie “Let Them Rot” - I admit this thought has crossed my mind iro the Wuhan evacuees)? But I rather not - a resident is a resident, and to assess whether someone is a Hong Kong Hong Konger is dangerous territory for me (my reluctance to type Chinese is enough to do me over). Unconditional stay stays what it is for those who have it - those who’re already here practice social distancing.

Last edited by percysmith; Mar 25, 20 at 8:40 pm
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Old Mar 25, 20, 8:54 pm
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And it turns out, to my great surprise, that all those returning residents from Hubei are going to be quarantining at home with their families.

In any event, I'm not suggesting bringing down the gates till the crisis is over. But arrivals, at least from hard-hit areas like EUR/UK/US should go into hard quarantine at a Government centre to protect the community as a whole. At the moment, there aren't enough places in Government centres for all those arrivals, but once there are -- using tents and other temporary types of shelter as necessary -- the airport can be re-opened. So it's a temporary closure till proper arrangements are in place that I suggest. No different really than closing the airport till a typhoon blows over.

Finally, a policy that encourages people feeling a little unwell to head on a plane to Hong Kong for better treatment is a horrible horrible policy from the standpoint of everyone else on that plane, and the Government has a responsibility to those people as well. Maybe set up special flights for those feeling a little unwell, I don't know. But they should not be maskerading as in perfect health on a commercial flight.

Last edited by 889; Mar 25, 20 at 8:59 pm
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Old Mar 26, 20, 3:46 am
  #490  
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Originally Posted by 889 View Post
In any event, I'm not suggesting bringing down the gates till the crisis is over. But arrivals, at least from hard-hit areas like EUR/UK/US should go into hard quarantine at a Government centre to protect the community as a whole.
You did remember that initially whenever a quarantine facility was mooted in the first few weeks it got shot down (or even burned?).

Or perhaps we just let these people roam about town like Wuhanese in Beijing, hiding in underground walkways?

Originally Posted by 889 View Post
Finally, a policy that encourages people feeling a little unwell to head on a plane to Hong Kong for better treatment is a horrible horrible policy from the standpoint of everyone else on that plane, and the Government has a responsibility to those people as well. Maybe set up special flights for those feeling a little unwell, I don't know. But they should not be maskerading as in perfect health on a commercial flight.
We've already been there https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/32178698-post431.html .

Do you want to block a planeload of HK residents (be they new immigrants, overseas boarders or whatever group you want to hate) because one may be the selfish Taiwanese woman who masked her symptoms until getting to home soil?

Originally Posted by 889 View Post
And it turns out, to my great surprise, that all those returning residents from Hubei are going to be quarantining at home with their families.
Yes. Lots of people unhappy with this decision, mainly on the pro-Democrat/protest side of politics. Social distancing again.

Unfortunately this is one the decisions that if we can't change, we will have to cope.
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Old Mar 26, 20, 6:28 am
  #491  
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"You did remember that initially whenever a quarantine facility was mooted in the first few weeks it got shot down (or even burned?)."

And you do remember that initially the Government for whatever reasons of its own was refusing to consider reasonable alternatives like Disneyland, both the hotel and the adjoining land for temporary housing. Why? The mice weren't going to object: no evidence they're susceptible to the virus.

" . . . or whatever group you want to hate."

Hatred? What kind of dirt are you trying to sling at me? It's the opposite of hatred: trying to protect a beloved community -- over seven million people in Hong Kong -- from a group small in number who nonetheless have the capability of wrecking great destruction among those seven million. The community as a whole needs to protect itself from a few members of the community who can seriously harm it. It's what societies always do.

There are ways to deal with the shortage of quarantine facilities: perhaps statistics will show that something like five days in hard quarantine followed by the rest in home quarantine provides reasonable protection, I don't know. And as I said, limit hard quarantine to arrivals from hard-hit areas.

But a look at the numbers, including today's big increase in new cases, shows we should not -- we cannot -- just let people walk off the plane into the community unsupervised. Something needs to change.

As well, some sort of pre-boarding medical screening is necessary to reduce if not eliminate travellers who aren't in perfect health.

Bear in mind that if you are onboard with someone who turns out to be infected, you will never hear from the Government, you will never hear from the airline. You'll just have to check that list linked above from time to time. Then start worrying. (The exception may be if your seat was in reach of the infected person.)

That's another warning for anyone flying into Hong Kong,

As to the Hubei returnees, I understand they're not even being tested for infection.

Finally, you're expressing all this concern about letting those Hong Kong people in EUR/UK/US fly unfettered right back to Hong Kong. Yet where was that same concern when it came to those Hong Kong people in Hubei, who languished there for weeks and weeks, in much riskier conditions generally than those in the West.
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Old Mar 26, 20, 6:57 am
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//Hatred? What kind of dirt are you trying to sling at me?

Any HK resident who’s not presently here and trying to return. Since we already disallowed all the visitors and transits too.

//As well, some sort of pre-boarding medical screening is necessary to reduce if not eliminate travellers who aren't in perfect health.

Which departure airport isn’t doing that?

//Bear in mind that if you are onboard with someone who turns out to be infected, you will never hear from the Government, you will never hear from the airline. You'll just have to check that list linked above from time to time. Then start worrying. (The exception may be if your seat was in reach of the infected person.)

I think the presumption is air passengers are exposed - either in the air or on the ground wherever they’re from.

The arrival numbers are coming down, from 12k/day 18/3 to 4k/day yesterday and today https://www.immd.gov.hk/eng/message_from_us/stat3.html

The trade off in staying abroad is whether your insurance will run out Stuck in Australia or NZ - What are the options? etc (combined thread)

//Finally, you're expressing all this concern about letting those Hong Kong people in EUR/UK/US fly unfettered right back to Hong Kong. Yet where was that same concern when it came to those Hong Kong people in Hubei, who languished there for weeks and weeks, in much riskier conditions generally than those in the West.

Thats why I eventually concluded we have to let them back too. Once Govt in its usual efficiency has figured out how.

HKers in the rest of PRC has unfettered right of return provided they can present themselves at the border, subject to 14 day home quarantine.

I would make a distinction - cities and provinces in the PRC with outbreaks have the right and duty to impose exit controls until such time they can control and departures of non-residents and conduct them in a safe manner. Remember that means setting up exit controls too since Hubeiers were able to drive out up to the date of the lockdown. I’m not sure Peru/Bolivia/Argentina/Morocco/Serbia are there yet, but since all foreigners are subject to exit control I see little point in limiting them from going.

Last edited by percysmith; Mar 26, 20 at 7:32 am
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Old Mar 26, 20, 7:29 am
  #493  
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Originally Posted by percysmith View Post
//Hatred? What kind of dirt are you trying to sling at me?

Any HK resident who’s not presently here and trying to return. Since we already disallowed all the visitors and transits too.
I think you and I have some fundamental disagreements.

In arguing that the airport should be shut, your assessment of where we’re at in HK today is akin to countries that saw it necessary to ground flights to even their own citizens. You are arguing we are turning ourselves to be a reverse Diamond Princess - we create an island of sterility while the rest of the world is contaminated and trying to get in, including our own who are stranded outside.

This isn’t quarantine, this is reverse blockade.

You may be proven right, but I don’t think we are that far. We’ve controlled the infection for the first month without resorting to blockade, and I am still sufficiently hopeful we can do it again. We won’t agree on this.

I also don’t think we can build enough mandatory facilities to house all arrivals (Director of HKU infectious disease centre has circulated an estimate of 180,000 returnees for March https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/compone...4-20200324.htm), whether you get Disneyland or not, again we have to agree to disagree.

Last edited by percysmith; Mar 26, 20 at 7:46 am
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Old Mar 26, 20, 7:56 am
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I'll just say that by that extraordinary definition of "hatred" you ought well to be identifying the HK Government as the prime "hater," since it did its very best to avoid bringing the Hubei refugees back by throwing up excuses after excuses until it had no excuses left. Everyone knew the Government was, in your phrase, just leaving them to rot.

And being out in the community where there may be an infected person or two just isn't comparable to being locked in an airplane with one. That should be obvious to all.

As to the practicality of closing the airport temporarily till facilities are ready, we need to see the numbers. Store them there for five days, and only those from high-risk countries. As you said, arrivals are now down drastically. And with mandatory real quarantine, they'd probably go down further. So what's the number going to be and what's the construction time? No sense speculating here without that information.

By the way, when the airport closes for a typhoon, have you ever heard anyone screaming, "I have Right of Abode. Let me in!"

There are many ways to skin a cat, and I don't mean to suggest that a temporary closing of the airport is the only possibility. Perhaps we can put the whole family under home quarantine, instead of just the traveller. There may well be other effective approaches.

But the bottom line is, new cases are marching upward and returnees are the driving force behind that march. Something has to be done.
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Old Mar 26, 20, 8:19 am
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Originally Posted by 889 View Post
By the way, when the airport closes for a typhoon, have you ever heard anyone screaming, "I have Right of Abode. Let me in!"
Typhoon is only a limited period of time.

If we had an Iceland volcano erupt off Nanao, I think we'd be looking at chartered ships.

Originally Posted by 889 View Post
As to the practicality of closing the airport temporarily till facilities are ready, we need to see the numbers. Store them there for five days, and only those from high-risk countries. As you said, arrivals are now down drastically. And with mandatory real quarantine, they'd probably go down further. So what's the number going to be and what's the construction time? No sense speculating here without that information.
Can think of two choices:

a) don't let anyone in until we have a vaccine to immunise the whole HK population who stayed.

b) Restrict HK resident arrivals by the number of quarantine facilities we can build. So it'll be like one-way permit after Chan Kam Nga ​- you have to get clearance by lottery or something to come back and stay in the quarantine facility.

((b) - since you mentioned the Govt, that is against the BL to be applied against HK Permanent Residents so it'll be JRed, and whether the HKSARG will refer it to the NPC...)
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