soy

Sadly this seems to be the end game for HK. It seems PRC plans to seize the opportunity while the rest of the world is pre-occupied with Covid

travelinmanS

All the doom and gloom about HK fails to realize that it is a necessary outlet for PRC leaders and their families to get money out of China. For this reason the current business system and laws will remain in place for the foreseeable future. Just because they stop the protests doesn’t mean they will remove the HKD and western business laws. It will be fine. Hotels will recover and hopefully for those of us Hhonors members Hilton will add a few to the portfolio.

lsquare

I agree. HK still have its value to the Chinese elites. However, if prominent people are disappearing from HK, I'm not sure how people will still have confidence in the system.

ChinaShrek

Not because of Hong Kong only, of course. But when you combine the Hong Kong issue with the Covid virus, Huawei, and Xinjiang, I really do see a perfect storm developing against the PRC. Many Americans blame China for the virus (either directly or indirectly). More and more Americans do not want their products made in China. What would a new Cold War look like? It will take two forms. First, there will be a concerted effort to avoid buying any products made in China. The US, Canada, and Europe could easily create a new free-trade zone and completely exclude China. Second, the US will push for full diplomatic recognition of Taiwan and establish a US base there (similar to Okinawa).

lsquare

I also hold a view that China is becoming a major long term threat to the US. Like with the Soviet Union, the US must look at China and deal with it from a long term point of view. China's threat to US security and economic interests in Asia cannot be understated. Having said that, no matter what have been said thus far, the US is not going to hold China to account over human rights abuse. At the same time, I can also say, what is one's definition of holding China to account? We've been critizticing China's abysmal human rights record for years with no success.

It's been discussed for years and there's no need to repeat what's been said. Moving supply chains and manufacturing out of China is difficult and expensive. It's hard to replicate what the Chinese have done. Any attempt to shift product assembly to countries like Vietnam and India will take years if not decades and billions of dollars. China has a massive advantage not just in terms of manpower, but also in infrastructure.

Unfortunately, if you want economic growth, it'll be difficult to exclude China. That's just how big China's economy is and it continues to grow even with COVID-19. I don't know how we can grow the global economy without the world's second biggest economy and will soon be the world's biggest. The US simply can't do that when China have 1.4 billion people.

Establishing a base in Taiwan is needless provocation. AFAIK, the US military removed weapons and other assets from Taiwan by around 1979 and have no plans to go back there. We may be about to enter a new Cold War if we haven't already. However, it is not in anyone's interest to do anything that would escalate things to military conflict. I can assure you that even if China and the US is destined to fight a war in the future, we will all lose. Think of all of the prosperity that was built since the end of World War II. It'll all be wiped out. A lot of Americans don't understand that Taiwan is an emotional issue for the Chinese. They will not let Taiwan go without a fight. The Chinese will pay any price to prevent losing Taiwan. Think of how long the US was in Vietnam. Despite US military superiority and the numbers of North Vietnamese that were killed, the US still couldn't prevent the reunification of Vietnam under Communist leadership. No one should assume that any conflict with China will be brief.