747FC

What did he say? Can you provide a link? SA doesn't quote him addressing 14-day...

COSPILOT

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/0...increase-ever/

mag_nate

I'm trying to research what a PCR vs a NAAT would be and from what I can see, a PCR is a specific subset of NAAT (so all PCRs are NAATs but not all NAATs are PCRs). This is from wikipedia, so take it with a grain of salt I guess. Maybe they've actually made the test-type requirement more broad?

denver19

That would be a business catastrophe; so I suppose it will happen. Here is quarantining as it now works:

2,000 people arrive from the mainland in a day (rounded number),
600 are military and family and they don't quarantine.
500 are returning locals, they quarantine, but their housemates do not, so...
200 are essential workers who do not quarantine,
700 are visitors that have a mandated 14 day quarantine.
That, is a bucket with some obvious holes in it. So, while the quarantine has absolutely strangled the economy, something like 2/3rds of arrivals aren't even asked to quarantine.

Tourism isn't rushing back in August. It may trickle back. By testing, and encouraging visitors with tests, we may avoid financial devastation. Governor Ige was in the news projecting shortfalls that would impact public employee jobs. That, combined with PPP, the end of the $600 unemployment bump, and the 40% unemployed in Maui who no longer have health insurance (there is a real trifecta; lose your job, your health insurance, and suffer a pandemic), this really needs to be thought through.

nnn

Thanks. There is no mention on that site of what happens if you do not get back your test results in time. Currently, it suggests that you will be subject to a 14-day quarantine as you would not be able to present evidence of the negative test on arrival. Given the increasing delays for test results, that seems like a very likely scenario for many folks. What are you supposed to do if your flight boarding time is approaching and you still haven't received your test result?

Hopefully they can work out some system for a shorter quarantine until your test results come back, with verification by the hotel or something. Otherwise, either the entire plan will be pointless, or they will have a lot of angry travelers. I wouldn't mind holing up at the FS for a day or so, if it meant enjoying the rest of my trip.

cmculp

(Physician here....) - in non-clinical terms, this broadens the permissive testing to include all common methods for detecting virus (as opposed to testing for antibodies against it). It’s a good change.

eventually, antibody testing is likely to have its place too..... as in once positive, nothing else required.

HaleiwaFlyer

I think this is the whole point, in that Hawaii only wants travelers who can show they have a negative test result, otherwise it is a 14 day quarantine until negative results arrive. My worry is, what tourists do if you have a positive result and start becoming sick while already in Hawaii.

Based on previous discussions, the State of Hawaii doesn't want to be responsible to test people. The rate of incoming tourists will be limited by the feasibility of obtaining a test, and getting results. As for how many tourists want to jump through the hoop to do so, we shall see come August 1st. As for how many tourists want to come and disregard the quarantine rules, we shall see too.

DELee

Hate to ask, but don't you need to administer both an antibody test (positive or negative) and a PCR test (negative) to confirm that a) an individual doesn't currently have CV-19 and b) even if they test positive for an antibody response?

David

COSPILOT

Lt. Governor Josh Green discussed this in a live interview on KGMB just now. Sounds like they will probably be open to “leniency” for test results that are delayed. That said, he mentioned that it is possible a delay of Aug. 1 is being discussed, with random dates thrown out such as Aug. 15 or Sept. 1. They have a major meeting this afternoon with the Mayors, but I don’t know if we will know anything by this evening or later in the week.

denver19

I remember Josh Green saying before, if you don't have a negative test, you can "call" when you receive it, and get sprung from jail.

Random dates; oy. A plan please. I heard today that Merriman's is never going to re-open. Maui (and Hawaii) is on precarious ground. Unemployment, uninsured, can't pay the rent, businesses closing and so the formerly employed will have to move back to the mainland. You cannot just keep raising GET rates and TAT rates: 15% of nothing is nothing.

We should be increasing our ability to deal with patients, inviting tested tourists, 2/3rds of the arrivals should not just bypass quarantine or testing because it is politically expedient. This isn't just rich white guys, with shut down businesses anymore that are feeling the pain. In 3 weeks the unemployment bump ends. Ige is talking about the need to furlough or lay off state and local employees. Maui High School grads with no (zero) local opportunity going to the mainland. Forget college grads on the mainland returning. Families with multiple bread winners to cover costs losing ALL there jobs. Teachers, fireman, police, all looking at cuts. Maybe you can close the road to Hana for years...

I know its super that "Shark Pit" and "Pools" aren't crowded. But this is getting real. Random dates and shifting "re-openings" are a death blow.

747FC

We all empathize with the plight of those economically impacted by this pandemic, however opening up without pandemic control has not been shown to have either an economic or health benefit. See:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/b...e=articleShare

The study compares Sweden and its neighbors, Sweden opting to make few or no changes in population behavior, while its neighbors instituted tight controls. Here is one quote in the article:

"This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better."

“They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.”

So, what should Hawaii do, open up and try to create more jobs? In theory, sure. In practice, a higher rate of COVID-19 will lead to more deaths and the same terrible economic picture.

denver19

Well, I mentioned in my post: Hawaii should have been enhancing its ability to deal with patients, through expansion of hospital facilities and re-purposing state and local facilities; the MAC comes to mind, over the last 3 months. We should be running a quarantine that quarantines all travelers; not just those that don't vote here in the islands. We should be testing and tracing, and inviting tested visitors. There are 100 ways to prepare, none of which include random dates and on again, off again quarantines.

italdesign

Basically, the reality is that the adage that applies to everything else right now applies here: nothing is stable, things can change any time, don't count on any announcements made more than 1-2 days out.

I'll be sticking to flexible driving trips for now. Hope things stabilize a bit in the coming months.

nnn

But if it is literally impossible to guarantee test results on the mainland within 72 hours, then the "point" of the plan is ultimately pointless as virtually nobody will be able to make plans to visit Hawaii. Why bother opening at all? Luckily, it sounds like the government is preparing to allow "jailbreak" once delayed test results come back, which makes sense.

But the rest of the country is facing the same issue, and having to deal with it -- is Hawaii special? So that folks living in HI don't have to worry about social distancing and taking other precautions like the rest of us are forced to do? Here in SF we are doing just fine abiding by the rules, if you look at our Covid numbers (they are low).

747FC

In case my point was not clear: Strict social distancing, mask wearing, testing, quarantines, etc are the best way to keep the balance between Population health And wealth. Sweden is the model for how not to do it. Hawaii’s economy will not improve without strict pandemic controls.