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Will Southwest's entry into the inter-island market lower fares?

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Will Southwest's entry into the inter-island market lower fares?

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Old Mar 2, 2019, 7:38 pm
  #31  
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Originally Posted by FlyinHawaiian
I wish WN well in trying to serve the inter-island market but will be curious to see if they encounter the same engine problems with the CFM-56 that Aloha had (which is why they ended up going back to the older 737-200 aircraft and rarely used the 737-700 on the short hops.
FWIW, United flies a 737 on one of its LAX-SAN flights (which is something like ~20min in the air). However, it doesn't immediately do another short hop but rather stays on the ground in SAN overnight.

In the case of WN and Hawaii, limiting the number of short hops per aircraft/day may help if they don't otherwise have a way around it.
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Old Mar 2, 2019, 11:29 pm
  #32  
 
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Originally Posted by WrightHI
Coverage yesterday of comments from Southwest that they intend to go after HA interisland: https://www.staradvertiser.com/2019/...xecutive-says/

I’m surprised to see that, although what they seem to be describing still is a long way short of HA’s schedule. Can’t be good for HA’s stock price, and will be interesting to see if HA becomes a takeover target. They have a good business but hard to figure how another carrier could absorb them without abandoning a lot of brand equity.
All this talk of Southwest coming into compete for the interisland market reminds me of a conversation I had several decades ago with someone knowledgeable about organized crime in Hawaii. Seems like Mainland mobsters came to Hawaii to do business and compete against local mobsters. One of the poor mobsters who showed up on our shores was later sent back to the Mainland (or at least a part of his body was) with a note that said "Yum, yum. Send more."

Not trying to compare Southwest or HA to mobsters
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Old Mar 3, 2019, 11:32 am
  #33  
 
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Yeah, I think HA can defend itself just fine in the air travel market. The interesting question is what competition from Southwest will mean in the financial markets. HA is already a bit of an outlier and I’m curious how long they can get by with their “destination carrier” schtick, especially if the economy slows just as competition ramps up.
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Old Mar 3, 2019, 11:34 am
  #34  
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Originally Posted by WrightHI
Coverage yesterday of comments from Southwest that they intend to go after HA interisland: https://www.staradvertiser.com/2019/...xecutive-says/

I’m surprised to see that, although what they seem to be describing still is a long way short of HA’s schedule. Can’t be good for HA’s stock price, and will be interesting to see if HA becomes a takeover target. They have a good business but hard to figure how another carrier could absorb them without abandoning a lot of brand equity.
Interesting. Hawaiian has a lot of structural advantages in the interisland market. I would think a TRUE low cost airline -- say Sprit -- could make life uncomfortable for HA in the interisland market. Like by selling $29 and $39 tickets. There's no way WN could afford to do that overtime. And they're not going to drive out HA in the meantime. Looks like we might see an interisland fare war. I'm still skeptical, though. The folks running WN are not fools (aka, we're not talking Norwegian management). My guess is that if WN actually begins interisland service, average fares will drop about $20. That will be good for customers, but maybe not so great for either WN or HA.
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Old Mar 3, 2019, 11:43 am
  #35  
 
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Originally Posted by iahphx
My guess is that if WN actually begins interisland service, average fares will drop about $20. That will be good for customers, but maybe not so great for either WN or HA.
Empty hangers are "littered" with the shells of airlines that have tried a sustained fare war. While I expect an "introductory" price to attract attention, no way any carrier exists in the market with much lower fares than HA currently charges.
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Old Mar 4, 2019, 2:20 pm
  #36  
 
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Originally Posted by 747FC
no way any carrier exists in the market with much lower fares than HA currently charges.
What's the difference between WN and Aloha, Discovery, FlyHawaii, go!, Island Air, Mahalo Air, and Pacific Wings? (Not to mention Allegiant, ATA, etc. who tried on the mainland.) They are already highly successful operators of short distance flights and have a huge balance sheet. WN management compares the Hawaiian aviation market to Texas or California where they've had incredible success. LUV has a $30b market cap, and HA has a $1.2b market cap.
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Old Mar 4, 2019, 2:53 pm
  #37  
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And it begins.

https://www.dansdeals.com/airfare-deals/hawaii-flights/southwest-now-selling-hawaii-interisland-flights-28-1379-points-way/

The baggage thing will be interesting. It's currently expensive for Hawaiians to move stuff between islands. I can see massive amounts of luggage being hauled by WN on their new service (you get 2 free bags with a total of 100 lbs of luggage). Will "courier" businesses start to sell this luggage access? I'm sure WN would frown on this. In any event, you're going to be seeing LOTS of luggage at WN's ticket counters in Hawaii.

And, it would seem, an interisland fare war of some kind.
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Old Mar 4, 2019, 3:18 pm
  #38  
 
 
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4 flights a day in each direction between HNL and OGG in September. $49 Wanna Get Away fares. Has Hawaiian responded?

Trying to figure out how they are routing their aircraft? Anybody figured that out yet?

Random dates, Sept 9, SJC-OGG shows 2 flights, one n/s with $159 WGA fares and a one-stop via HNL, with a 2:30 layover for $233.

AS is selling basic economy on that day on their n/s for $139, main (regular fare) for $159. Neither includes checked bags unless you have status or cc.

-David

Last edited by LIH Prem; Mar 4, 2019 at 3:31 pm
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Old Mar 4, 2019, 3:59 pm
  #39  
 
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Originally Posted by worldwidedreamer
What's the difference between WN and Aloha, Discovery, FlyHawaii, go!, Island Air, Mahalo Air, and Pacific Wings?
Nothing. No carrier is going to continue operations with significantly reduced costs and fares.
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Old Mar 4, 2019, 4:14 pm
  #40  
 
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While HA may have some good aspects, I really dislike them. Horrible customer service via phone. Pretty good customer service at the airport. Hit and miss in the air. And a REALLY LONG wait to get your baggage once you arrive HNL. Really ticked me off when I flew in paid First that I couldn't get a cup of coffee and a PDB. Pretty Bad Coffee anyway once in the air.) But, let's face it, they've enjoyed a MONOPOLY on Interisland travel for far too long.
And they've been able to make a KILLING on it, subsidizing their unprofitable long haul routes.

$29 introductory 1-way interisland fares to Maui and Kona.
I've already booked, and it will be my first flights ever on Southwest.
Welcome to the party!!!
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Old Mar 4, 2019, 4:20 pm
  #41  
 
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Interisland looks like one aircraft doing four round trips over the course of a day, starting from the neighbor island. Might be workable for same-day business from the neighbor islands to Oahu, but not so much for Oahu to neighbor islands. Will be interesting to watch it play out for a while. HA might end up wishing they'd made a little more effort to take care of their local customers, and it's possible that Southwest has a higher pain tolerance than they do, but I'm skeptical that Southwest can develop a cost advantage interisland any time soon.
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Old Mar 4, 2019, 6:06 pm
  #42  
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I'm not sure what's going to happen between HA and WN, but there's one thing I am certain of: it's going to get busy at Hawaii's airports! I'd think $29 fares will easily double demand, especially in the short term.
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Old Mar 5, 2019, 11:13 am
  #43  
 
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Originally Posted by iahphx
I'm not sure what's going to happen between HA and WN, but there's one thing I am certain of: it's going to get busy at Hawaii's airports! I'd think $29 fares will easily double demand, especially in the short term.
I personally find it hard to believe $29 fares vs. the usual $80 one way or so on Hawaiian will "easily double demand" - I just don't see $100 rt making that much of a difference - unless it is a day trip, you still have to get a hotel, car, etc - and anyone who has been to Maui the past few years knows the price of hotels on Maui aren't exactly inexpensive. If demand really goes up - plan to see hotel rates go up from already high amounts.
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Old Mar 5, 2019, 8:23 pm
  #44  
 
 
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Interesting analysis ...

https://crankyflier.com/2019/03/05/r...ets-to-hawaii/

-David
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Old Mar 6, 2019, 12:03 am
  #45  
 
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Originally Posted by HNLbasedFlyer
I personally find it hard to believe $29 fares vs. the usual $80 one way or so on Hawaiian will "easily double demand" - I just don't see $100 rt making that much of a difference - unless it is a day trip, you still have to get a hotel, car, etc - and anyone who has been to Maui the past few years knows the price of hotels on Maui aren't exactly inexpensive. If demand really goes up - plan to see hotel rates go up from already high amounts.
Do you really think that $29 fares will be anything but temporary and attention-getting? In the history of interisland fare competition, no carrier has maintained low fares using a substantially similar product.
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