Load factors?
 

I had about a 10% load factor on a Monday MSY flight. I think this may be the emptiest flight I've ever taken in my life. Sure, it's after Easter, but 10% on a Monday for a flight that doesn't even operate tomorrow? Given the spike in jet fuel prices, this won't be sustainable. What is everyone else seeing?

The Frontier air fares are very high currently. Low load factors would not be a surprise.
I booked a RT in May during the 90% off sale. Hope the flights are not cancelled!

100% loads at not the lowest airfare last two trips with them. One was from PHL and other was from ATL. Both were $180-200 OW which is high for F9 but about half what the dominant majors in those airports wanted for the route. With Elite didn't pay for seat or carry on so it's really half the price.

As crazy as the switch to more competitive business routes seemed at first they might be onto something.

i just had a LAX - SJC with a Go Wild pass $16 last minute. That would suggest empty seats and rows but it went out 100% full. Upgrade to Upfront was $18 and row 3 was $12. In the first three rows, only one person had a carry on. I think they are pricing a more modest discount relative to legacy without doing the $19 to $29 price point for anything before noon Mondays. Discount den was $174 last minute. The new guy realizes almost none of his customers pay for bags or drinks so the ULCC model $1 fare is not working because everybody is cheap with just a small backpack. Go Wild is a $0.01 fare too, but we gave $300 to $400 for the psss upfront.

I've never seen a lot of drinks/snacks sold on Frontier, but it did seem like "the bundle" fares had increased carry-ons. I haven't flown enough Frontier flights lately to know if that's still the case. In any event , I can't believe there's a plausible business plan that offers sub $50 fares.

Yeah I think you got something there. Groups 2 and 3 if combined is the first of the larger boarding groups. Groups 2 and 3 will include all of the bundle buyers.

Nevertheless, after group 3 the gate area is still very crowded and nobody left has a carryon. Group 4 is the credit card holders paying revenue to Barclays with a cut to Frontier.

Even on full flights, most seats are still unassigned until T-24. The Frontier customer is now conditioned to flying with a backpack, no drinks, no seat assignment, and no wifi.
I'm shocked Frontier somehow collects $110 per passenger when loads are 70%. Once the taxes, employees, rent, and aircraft maintenance are paid, there is nothing left at $110 all-in.

The 20% load factor flights could be repositioning flights as part of daily expenses since Frontier parks 90% of the planes at the hubs from late evening to early morning except the 10% for quick turns. Frontier would otherwise never keep 20% load factor flights. That's when the $19 and $29 fares to/from hubs show up I think.

Carrier Interface Charge
 

Most people do not look at the breakdown when they are buying their trips. Loaded in a one way with a connection is the up to $46 (2@$23) Carrier Interface Charge. You can buy your ticket at the airport to avoid this charge. Only catch is you do not get the Discount Den fare. My guess this is where the extra money Frontier is collecting. This could add up to $92 in tax free revenue for Frontier on a round trip.

The other catch is that it's a huge hassle to go to the airport ticket counter during the rare times when it's open. Have to go to the airport and back, pay for parking, etc. Usually when I fly, I don't have time to go to the ticket counter. t's the same reason why I bend the knee to Ticketmaster because going to the box office is inconvenient with very limited hours and some box offices still charge some or all of the fees anyway.

All fair points but you'd really rather collect a $300 fare you pay tax on than a $150 fare with a lot of it tax free. Also CIC is variable and often gets quite low on a lot of flights now. It is worth checking and taking advantage of for families or those planning a lot of trips.

I'd also push back on the idea Frontier travelers are just using a backpack and paying little. Group 1 used to be relatively small years ago. Now for flights at DEN its usually the biggest group. People are paying for some stuff, probably just not seats or onboard purchases. And even that is a function of where its going. On flights to LAS its like a bar, tons of sales. On the flight back to DEN its understandably muted.

My recent LAX-SFO flights have been nearly full.

So after my 32110% load factor flight a couple on Mondays ago, I just had a completely full Wednesday 320 flight out of PBI. It was so booked that, for the first time ever for me, I couldn't get an extra legroom seat at the 24 hour mark as a Gold. I paid next to nothing when I booked (I recall less than $25), but I could tell from the clientele that the fares got high (at PBI, even afluent people sometimes fly Frontier). Tough aircraft for Frontier to board when people have carryons and the flight is full. They did send me an email a week or two ago offering to swap my carry-on for a checked bag. Obviously not an attractive offer to most. The extended boarding made us late and, for some reason, there was no APU. I thought somebody might pass out in the Florida heat.