Frontier withdrawing from TTN?
 

I have seen the conversation touched upon in other threads - but it seems a shame that with the relationship Frontier has developed in Trenton now there is significant downsizing going on. And it is a bit ironic as their competition is at PHL or EWR and there's a rather large population swath in between that has to travel farther. IMHO the biggest headwind they face is the skimpy nature of offerings... the once a day nature of many routes - combined with the lack of any public infrastructure to connect to the rails. I understand that is a lot to hope for and financially unfeasible in so many cases.

Now that there's talk of Spirit buying out Frontier, could it be that Frontier is reducing routes that would be candidates for elimination with Spirit.

I see TTN-RDU becomes "seasonal" i.e. not running at the start of January, most others too...I can't recall TTN-RDU going black since the runway work sabbatical.

To me it's apparent F9 is pulling out of TTN. Am I missing something?

I don't see Frontier selling for a while, they have added a lot of value already and it will only get better if they can achieve a positive image.

Trenton (TTN)
Becomes "Seasonal" starting 12/17/15
Tampa

Becomes "Seasonal" Starting 1/4/16
Atlanta, Chicago, Charlotte, Detroit, Raliegh/Durham, St Augustine

Leaving the following routes at TTN which operate daily starting 1/5/16:
Orlando (2X DAILY), Ft. Lauderdale, Ft. Myers, West Palm Beach

Philadelphia (PHL)
Becomes "Seasonal" starting 1/4/16
Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Houston

Leaving the following routes at PHL Which operate daily Starting 1/5/16
Cancun, Ft. Myers, Miami, Orlando, Tampa
(Denver starts 3/17/16)

So it looks like they are cutting back all over the place. Maybe this allows a 2nd airline at TTN rather than being the one horse town it is now.

Maybe TNN is a failed experiment. Frontier is not shy about pulling out of routes that don't met expectations.

Kind of humorous Tampa going dark aka "Seasonal" at the start of the... er.... tourist season. They are obviously looking at the books and pulling out the cleaver but they are also diminishing their east coast gains by turning Trenton solely into limited winter getaways.

Just seems given the population density and the hassles that come with the larger airports 50 miles north and 40 miles south that there is a sizable niche that could be served successfully. It wouldn't surprise me if F9's transition to an ULCC has had a negative impact on those expectations...

No doubt the ULCC move has hurt them. Larger cities are going to have more passengers to get a combo of the one and done (never fly again) and the savings is more important crowd. However while TTN has a good size catchment it might not be big enough in that segment. Also TTN doesn't have the transit connections to make it a viable route for someone wanting to go to Downtown Philly or NYC

It seems to me that in setting up Florida only routes, F9 is setting up TTN for a merger. They now use TTN in a manner similar to the way that G4(?) uses ACY - leisure flights to Florida.

Push comes to shove, if they leave completely (which I doubt), I venture that Allegiant would come in. This would not clash with their ABE operation.

As for legacy carriers, the only one without a nearby hub is DL. I think a couple of E-170/175 of CRJ 700 flights daily to DTW (similar to what they do at SWF, which has a less populated catchment area, and also has B6) would be a logical next move.

Exactly who else would move in? United is at EWR. American is at PHL and JFK. Although Delta is hubbed at both at JFK and LGA, they probably have enough coverage at both EWR and PHL. Spirit is at ACY, so I can't see them doing anything out of TTN (though I couldn't guess what might happen IF Spirit buys Frontier).

So who is left? Southwest? Allegiant? One of the small Regional or Commuter carriers like Silver or PennAir? If they think Frontier couldn't make TTN work in the long-term, why would they move in?

It seems a lot of what has happened in the Northeast (ILG and IAD; plus, it seems, TTN) hasn't met the current owners' expectations.

TNN is now Spike TV.:cool:

Really, I don't think TTN is a failed experiment, but I think F9 is slowly leaning favor to PHL, as seen with TPA service. But F9 at PHL might just be a spoke and nothing significant either.

The biggest failed experiment within the last 2 years is IAD.

Frontier's owners are looking to IPO, over merger. Several of the decisions lately are to make the airline operate more profitably.

I believe we will see more MCO routes and likely summer seasonal increases at ORD. It seems to be still a big player in DEN, and LAS. It still has a hub in DEN, which might be attractive for another carrier in case F9 decides to merge with another carrier that is not an ULCC. Perhaps post IPO, it merges with JetBlue. Or it stays as an ULCC.

TTN's heyday likely passed. It will be interesting how F9 services it next year.

Delta and American serves SWF which has a similar catchment Delta to Detroit and AA to PHL.

From what I've read on boards like A.net frontier is returning some of its A319s to their leasing company and the A320 neos are delayed. Also the A321s are not coming in at a fast enough pace.

This is supported by the fact that F9 is doing the same cuts in Philly. unless of course you claim they are pulling out of there too.

According to PlaneSpotters.net Frontier has received 5 new 320s this year and has not retired any 319s since about 2006. That may not be completely up to date.

I heard earlier that Frontier was going to retire the 319s and replace them with newer bigger planes, but given the recent drop in fuel prices that may be put off. I'd expect the management to want to get as many planes in the air as possible while the legacies are all limiting capacity.

I'm disappointed seeing TTN-RDU become seasonal. Philadelphia is a long drive or train ride and RDU-PHL is almost never a cheap trip. However, F9 is very reliable on RDU-TTN and I'm going to miss having that option.

Well it could be them not being satisfied with TTN or them retiring some 319s. Guess we'll have to see which one in May.

Yeah that's going to suck for you, the only carriers on that route are American and Delta Connection not even Southwest does RDU-PHL. As I said this is likely due to the retirement of some of the a319CEOs. RDU was one of the first TTN cities to go daily, so I believe it was doing well. Hopefully it will be back in April and then for next winter

Well as I expected the cuts are due to the retirement of older aircraft (A319CEO)

http://staugustine.com/news/local-ne...ustine-service
(Westgate refers to Bob Westgate, senior director of schedules for Frontier Airlines)

At the end of the day, TTN is in a tough geography for everyone to get to.

If you live in Philadelphia, PHL is more convenient. If you live in Southern NJ, PHL is probably more convenient. If you live in Northern NJ, EWR is more convenient, and there's not a good highway to TTN. If you don't have a car, you're out of luck, since there's no essentially no transit to TTN.

If you live in Bucks County PA or Central NJ, then TTN is great. Otherwise...

Yep, thats a fair statement. TTN could remedy that atleast partially very easy by running the shuttle the 1 mile or so to the SEPTA station in Ewing. That would help Philadelphia area travelers. Plus there are plans to move the West Trenton SEPTA station next to a new terminal area and Town Square which is on the same tracks and on the other side of Airport property. Eventual plans might even include a NJ transit line to New York.

Also King of Prussia, Norristown, Willow Grove, Horsham and Plymouth meeting. I don't know if you ever had the pleasure of getting thru downtown Philly but even on the Blue Route (I-476) it can be a hassle. That notwithstanding there is about 2 to 2.5 million people in TTN's catchment where its easier than EWR or PHL. The routes will be back in April/Early May, its partially due to a shortage of aircraft due to a opportunity to return older aircraft to the lessor and delays on the A320NEO delivery.

For South Jersey, it depends. If one lives around Exit 31 of I-295 and up north, it's a straight shot up I-295 to Exit 60, and taking 29. If one down by Gloucester County than they have to go through that construction zone of I-295.

Going through PHL from South Jersey requires driving over bridges (Walt Whitman, Girard Point Bridge), and commuter traffic dependent of time of day. Parking and convenience is also cheaper/easier at TTN than PHL.

Also some people might be able to use Trenton Transit Center and a cab. I see that Uber also services NJ and fares maybe cheaper using Uber, between the train station and TTN.

Even for those for whom TTN might be convenient, it only takes IRROPS and having to either sit somewhere until an aircraft can be located or buying a ticket on another carrier and winding up back at PHL/EWR and taking a cab to TTN to recover the car you left there, to wipe out a whole lot of savings.

The lure here is to people who see what appear to be ultra-low fares on a website and don't consider the other costs. Unfortunately, many of them are budget travelers who really get hit hard when they have to house & feed their family & miss work when they learn that interline is a foreign word.

I have noticed that AA and UA are selling very cheap CLT-EWR nonstop fares. One can verify by checking kayak and the other sites.

I wonder if AA is fare matching CLT-TTN via EWR, hoping to depress Frontier sales so that Frontier ceases CLT-TTN and doesn't resume it ever.

It's just strange given that US/AA used price high on that route. I presume AA is setting low fares forcing UA to fare match. I saw low DFW-EWR nonstop fares on both carriers which maybe from AA wanting to keep all DFW-NYC fares competitive against VX and WN, forcing UA also to not be able to charge hub captive fares out of EWR. The low fares on CLT-EWR nonstop is more surprising though and less explainable unless it's against F9 at TTN.

A few things about that. Yes F9 doesn't have an interline agreement so if your flight is canceled then you won't likely be put on another airline and that could have a negative impact on your travel. However a few things to realize, In September 2015. Frontier operated 7873 flights and canceled only 21 of them or 0.3% which was a less percentage than American (Mainline), Jetblue, United Express (Expressjet), Envoy (American regional carrier), Skywest (AA/UA/DL), Spirit and Southwest. So most people do not get their flights canceled out of TTN. Also Frontier has increased many flights to daily (increasing your chances of getting rebooked sooner) and offers alot of the TTN routes out of PHL. Also just because airlines interline doesn't mean your going to get home the same day or next day if your flights cancel. Flights are flying with a smaller number of empty seats everyday.

Spirit is adding PHL-FLL service. So, it will be:

AA - PHL-MIA/FLL hub-to hub, hub-spoke
B6 - PHL-FLL spoke-hub
NK - PHL/ACY-FLL spoke-hub
WN - PHL-FLL/PBI (seasonally only - only 4 months during peak season)
F9 - PHL-MIA and TTN-FLL/PBI (seasonally?)

I think F9's PHL-MIA is the most marginal route of the competing services, as AA has been fare matching them. Maybe that helps F9 at TTN if they figure strategically that some routes are better served from TTN.

Frontier's TTN crowd draws from Northern and Central NJ also. so it has that benefit that even PHL is a bloodbath for Florida that TTN can still pull from where EWR is not a bloodbath. I flew TTN-MCO a week or so ago, and noticed from conversation from where people where coming from and baseball caps of NY sports teams worn by passengers.

If this winter is mild, I think it might depress Florida sales as well, especially out of PHL.

On the note of PHL, I flew Frontier out of PHL recently this week. Boarding is very fast as many don't bring on a carry on bag.

Based on two recent flights: do not to go by the Doors Closed print in the Boarding pass, as F9 will close the doors 10 minutes before that time. Boarding happens very quickly. The problem with PHL is then sometimes F9 is #10 waiting to take off, even after they are ready. At TTN, generally F9 can take off. Likely not a dealbreaker issue, but just something to know.