Whats next for CLE?
 

CLE lost 40 routes with United. Lets do some simple math. We lost BDL, but Delta picked it up. 39 to go. PHL (US Airways still there) 2 down, 38 still gone. RDU, picked up by Delta and Frontier. 37. BNA. (Southwest still there) 36. CLT, MSP, survived by US Express and Delta. 34. ATL, IND, PHX, YYZ, Delta, delta saved, American and Frontier saved, and AC still there. Got that down to 30. So this is how it looked until Frontier threw a curve ball. (a pleasant one at that) 9 weeks ago, they announce ATL, FLL, RSW, PHX (seasonal), RDU, and TPA. All were retaining service already, just new competition, with the exception of RDU which wouldve been gone. Then SEA comes along, saved by Frontier, then PHX is made year round, then DFW and LAS come in. In all, 14 destinations are made possible by F9, with 2 from Apple vacations. Big expansion. What happens next? Lets make some guesses.

Of the 30 routes being cut, a crap ton were feeder flights for a handful of mainline, all of which expect boston and phx survived. However, some important cities are left out completely of the NE OH market. Lets look:

Austin TX, growing city, growing market.
Kansas City MO
New Orleans, who doesnt love a mardi gras?

Frontier could make them work with their model, IMO.

Of a very small request, It'd be nice if it kept the Sunday CLE-TTN service which I consider a gateway into the Philly & NJ regions and a replacement to the loss of UA on CLE-PHL, but instead with mainline aircraft and low fares.

Adding Saturday evening but deleting Sunday just doesn't help the route or make sense to me. It seems like F9 just wanted to squeeze out too much over at TTN, yet this flight did well.

Without a Sunday flight, this is likely not going to be much better than a United Special on CLE-EWR, fly out Fri/Sat, return Monday/Tuesday for $161 r/t.

Maybe it will base another aircraft at CLE and then offer CLE-TTN, rather the service from only the TTN based aircraft.

And maybe it'd compete on CLE-IAD.

Southwest is starting DCA-CAK but I read that it might be used for DCA-CAK-DEN meaning a lot of thrus on that flight on the last sector, and Southwest not discounting DCA-CAK to fill the flight just on O&D.

So, if that's the case, maybe F9 can undercut both Southwest and United's comparable BWI/IAD/DCA-CLE/CAK, on F9 CLE-IAD, with $49 fares. Southwest will probably sell at around $94 for advance WGAs but that includes bags and change fee.

AUS and MSY seem possible. Maybe with another aircraft dedicated, those other cities also get connected as destination cities. Would MCI work though? Not a big destination but F9 is at that airport.

I'd also suspect some service from CLE to California by next year.

I was hoping CLE-UST/LAX/SFO/MSY/IAH/LAS or MSP. Will they consider it? What about international flights? Can they start CLE-NAS/PUJ/MBJ/FPO/KIN/GCM/AUA and etc.

Frontier already flies CLE-CUN and CLE-PUJ. Although "in conjunction" with Apple Vacations, they are Frontier scheduled flights as well and are bookable on the Frontier website.

I think MSY would be a gold-mine for F9. Also think PHF and STL may be worth taking a chance on.

I think its interesting the email I got last week called IAD the newest hub. CLE has not had such a note. I am not sure we'll see a great deal more in growth. I thought they would but all the new service is an assault on UA. Instead of DFW taking in UA and AA why not PDX, MCI, SAN or MSY as stated above?

Could be that UA is vulnerable right now and it is best to start these cities and grow a following while UA is less likely to respond. For CLE UA has washed its hands of it and isn't interested in CLE other than for a few select markets.

I think that's a big part of it. When United dropped all those routes at CLE it must have known that some airline(s) would jump on some of them.

But even on the remaining common routes - CLE-MCO, eg - I'm not sure Frontier sees United as vulnerable, nor do I think it is an assault on United.

For the last several years, United and Frontier at DEN have coexisted in relative harmony on a number of routes where it is just the two of them - DEN-MOT, FAR, BIS, ANC, BFL, MSN - there are several others.

United seems to have understood that Frontier's market is not one that it wants, and - oddly - that Frontier's lower fares may stimulate the market to United's advantage, just as a rising tide lifts all boats.

From United's perspective, Southwest may be the spoiler, certainly at DEN - and maybe CLE. I'll be interested to see if Southwest now brings back its seasonal CLE-MCO, or expands it, which may be much more of a threat to United.

As someone else suggested, Frontier at IAD may also help United, by stimulating traffic at IAD. As equally, maybe IAD is a push too far by Frontier and United has a nuclear response. We should know within a week or two. Or even tomorrow. :-)

I agree on all of those. Norfolk is one of the coolest places I've been, and Virginia beach is down the road from PHF!

MCI would work. Especially at frontiers initial scheduling. UA had dash8-400's flying it 4X daily, I think a A319 can handle it 4X, daily at frontiers pricing. With the expansion of IAD, I think we will get in the next round of route additions.

PHF
 

Southwest has been cutting back at ORF, deleted AirTran's presence at PHF entirely, and hasn't expanded RIC in any significant way.

ORF-MDW is cut to just 1x daily in the last schedule extension, with ORF only having MDW (1x daily), BWI (3x daily) and MCO (1x daily). Gone are BNA and JAX and BOS (from Delta).

I was wondering if Frontier might seize the opportunity for a PHF focus and perhaps Frontier would advertise up in the RIC market and ORF/PHF markets a little more.

Routes I was thinking were
MDW 4x weekly
DEN already serviced 4x weekly
CLE 2x weekly
DTW 2x weekly
MKE 2x weekly
MCO 2-3x weekly, maybe more depending on season
UST 2x weekly (JAX alternative)
BNA 2-3x weekly
ATL ? STL? PIT?, BOS ?, LGA? (using a DEN slot pair twice a week?)

AirTran used to have an operation there with ATL service and connections in ATL, MCO and LGA and BOS, but it catered a little more to business pax.

However, I'd think PHF-BOS might be something Frontier might consider but Frontier doesn't have a BOS presence. Maybe PVD would be a substitute as well if it decides for a BOS area airport.

Most likely IAD and TTN/ILG are too close as in driveable.

I suppose the main question is could PHF itself be a destination market for most of the year, and if there is enough population density and demand from RIC to ORF to use PHF? Atleast it seems so with just the PHF-DEN service where Frontier has atleast 4x weekly.

The cut that surprises me most is ORF-JAX given the huge naval associations - development/construction/shipyards - at both Newport News and Jacksonville. Faremeasure has the ppd at 229.

Northrop Grumman has a huge operation in the Jacksonville area and has just built a $100 million facility at St. Augustine airport.

I wonder if this would help PHF-UST?

Yes, WN did flown JAX-ORF in October 2001 through late-2010. Did they tried it before? When it did happen?

Sorry, I don't know the full history of it.

I only became interested in that neck of the woods when Frontier started flying DEN-PHF.

There's another airline, People's Express, that is supposed to be based in PHF.

http://flypex.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=pubDsp.dspSplash

Maybe it'll end up doing Frontier style focused flying.