More ILG?
 

I've been hearing rumours of this for about a week:

https://www.facebook.com/FlyWilmILG

"Frontier Airlines is expected to announce plans for the airline’s further growth at Wilmington Airport, expanding on it successful launch of nonstop service to Chicago, Denver, Orlando and Tampa that began earlier this year."

Dickie birds say the annoucement may be tomorrow or Thursday.

Probably gonna be FLL, hope they add BOS, CMH, LAS, MYR? Maybe renewed IAH seasonal service?

BOS might not be likely because JetBlue already competes with US Airways out of PHL which not too far up on I-95 from ILG, and the fares are reasonable.

FLL seems most plausible. While Southwest competes with US out of PHL, I think it's a market that can be stimulated even more because of vacation traffic. Plus, ILG is superior with the parking and close gate access. NK flies 3x daily on ACY-FLL so cumulatively I don't know why F9 is deficient from TTN and ILG to FLL. Maybe So. Florida residents are going to Revel casino, or people are connecting to Latin America from ACY, but I suspect the far majority are NJ/PA pax flying to So. Florida O&D.


IAH is more a business market with VFR but not really a leisure market. I've never heard anybody vacationing in Houston, although it's more mild this time of year.

ATL might be a possibility. I haven't tracked Southwest/AirTran's PHL-ATL fares lately. Sometimes it's high, other times it looks reasonable for the distance. ATL is a large market and not as far or "thin" as flight service to IAH or say DFW.

I'm surprised ILG-MDW lasts. It would be more sense to just beef up TTN-MDW rather than splitting MDW services but maybe Baltimoreaons are driving up to ILG to get a low fare (I doubt it). The old Rapid Rewards 1.0 on Southwest made it very easy to get a flight from BWI to MDW. Now, it's this RR2.0 where if one books within 2 weeks, one could be looking at 30,000 reward points for a one-way, or 60,000 reward points for a round-trip.

Southwest has increased fares/points on certain routes like this that maybe ILG-MDW if the timing works out (doubtful for most situations), it can be an alternative out there for pax from Baltimore.

Frontier's website does list ILG as an alternative to Baltimore. However, the highway tolls are steep so I really can't think as ILG for Baltimore, just because Frontier's website associates the two. If anything, I'm surprised it's not associating DCA for Baltimore, which is a lot closer than ILG to Baltimore.

The Florida flights rom ILG have done very well and I'm surprised they haven't started ILG-FLL before.

I'd like to see them do something"exotic" such as ILG-SJU (Puerto Rico) or STT (St. Thomas) but I doubt they'd do that without Apple Vacations and I doubt that Apple could be persuaded away from PHL.

I've wondered about ILG-LAS, but that would be stiff competition with three airlines at PHL. Be fun to see, though. :-)

Yeah the competition is too much especially with NK flying PHL-LAS.
I'd like to see something along those lines though, something that they can't operate out of TTN.

If you are going to consider SJU, then maybe consider Nassau in the Bahamas (NAS?), which would likely be more popular,is a shorter flight, and has US Customs pre-clearance at the airport.

And ILG could then call itself Wilmington International Airport.

I guess I've always thought of NAS as a TTN route - it is the only Caribbean destination within range of the A319 from TTN because of the short runway.

But - who knows? One of the things I haven't worked out is the balance that they eventually see between ILG and TTN and hopefully we'll get some clues on that tomorrow.

People have mentioned Las Vegas. Can a full A320 make LAS from ILG's 7200' runway?

Also, what about the possibility that they will announce not new destinations, but expanded service to existing ones?

Detroit is one - fares starting at $35

Service between Wilmington/Philadelphia area, DE (ILG) and Detroit, MI (DTW) begins April 29, 2014.

Also Atlanta, same start date.

Each one is 3x weekly, Tu/Th/Su:

http://www.4-traders.com/REPUBLIC-AI...lade-17436120/

While this likely means TTN-ATL/DTW have been doing well, I'm surprised they aren't attempting routes that are too far to fly out of TTN.

In a nutshell - LOL.

I'm guessing these two shorter routes have to do with aircraft scheduling and I'm sure it's good for the airline, but it's a bit underwhelming given the hoopla - LOL.

I think the most interesting thing about the announcement was the broad hint that if the Indigo deal closes, then there might be more service for ILG:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/nation...ba8_story.html

"But Siegel said a sale to Indigo would result in a well-capitalized company that could expand even faster."

Crankyflier has an interesting interview with a Frontier executive. The first part was published today:

http://crankyflier.com/

What is clear from that interview is that even though Frontier is experimenting in Wilmington and Trenton, they are not actually making money at those airports. They are TRYING to make money. So do not confuse expansion with "great commercial success."

I again think that operating a handful of flights out of an obscure airport is not the recipe for financial success. The RASM you're going to get from such an operation is going to be too low; you need higher frequencies to get higher RASM.

We'll see.

Time was when we gave any new route a couple of years to turn a profit - I guess those days are gone.

Still, it seems unrealistically impatient to expect profitability in such a short space of time and on a bunch of routes. TTN has been operational for less than a year and ILG for less than six months and if there is confusion it isn't mine.

I don't think Frontier has ever claimed profitability for either TTN or ILG, but, as in this linked interview, TTN at least has exceeded the goals that were set for it:

http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2...r_airport.html

"We’ve marketed this airline and the airport,” Shurz said. “We’re getting more people to try the airport,” Shurz said.

In addition, it has been more difficult to measure success through the first year because Frontier is not as accustomed to setting up in an airport that does not already have commercial flights, he said. The company has, however, exceeded the goals that it set for the area."

I don't know if any of the routes are operating profitably (MCO?), but even if some are, there is still a not inconsiderable capital expenditure to consider.

Most (all?) of my interest in this is in the potential future not in the now, because if TTN/ILG (either/or) work, it solves some critical problems that have bedevilled DEN-centric Frontier throughout its history, especially 1Q - winter.

All the skiers and the limited amounts of snow-bird flying that can be done from DEN have never been enough to make the airline profitable in winter, even before Southwest at DEN.

It also solves the other issue that has beset Frontier for as long as I have been aware of the airline - where else, beyond DEN?

The few attempts to do this have failed and have been marked by almost immediate reduction of service. In that sense, at least, both TTN and ILG are already different.

One additional problem with maintaining a small presence at a small airport is getting the word out that you even exist. Sure, Frontier did an initial advertising campaign in Wilmington and Trenton to launch their service, but the small operation cannot sustain a large, continued ad campaign. So people forget you're there, and future travelers often don't even realize it.

As an example, I recently had a Delaware friend complain to me about how she was facing a high ticket cost for a PHL to MKE flight at the time she wanted to take to southeast Wisconsin. It didn't even immediately occur to me that perhaps ILG-MDW might be a reasonable alternative for her. If I can't remember that, what are the odds that a "regular" traveler would (like my Delaware friend has no clue that Frontier was operating out of Wilmington). And most flight searches that "normal" people would do wouldn't pull up this option.

I thought that both I, and more importantly Frontier, had already said this - that they have to sell the airport as well as the routes, because the airports were completely unknown quantities:

"We’ve marketed this airline and the airport,” Shurz said. “We’re getting more people to try the airport,” Shurz said."

I've never seen numbers for ILG, but it is tough to argue with (system average) 90% plus load factors at TTN. I note that TTN-MSY was suspended in spite of (average) 87% load factors.

I do understand that this says nothing about yields - only airport awareness.