Future of Rhinelander Flights
 

Just read that now Great Lakes is saying it's having trouble expanding to Rhinelander and Iron Mountain and that the contract for Rhinelander is being rebid.
Should I be worried about our Frontier flights to and from Rhinelander being cancelled?

Yes. They will be gone as soon as they legally can get rid of them. I wouldn't book anything more than a couple of weeks out.

However Frontier can't legally get rid of them until a replacement carrier is found. That's the whole issue here because the DoT is back at square one trying to find a replaement.

When Great Lakes bid for and was awarded Rhinelander, they intended to start RHI service within a handful of months. And because Frontier could pull out as soon as Great Lakes started, Frontier's days in Rhinelander would be short.

But now Great Lakes has said they can't really guess when they could start Rhinelander, Iron Mountain, Internatinoal Falls and Brainard, and they have asked the DoT to issue new bids to find another airline to take these over. That means Great Lakes won't be taking over Rhinelander, and Frontier will continue to be legally bound to serve Rhinelander indefinitely.

So what the OP said about Great Lakes not being able to start Rhinelander service means Frontier can't discontinue Rhinelander. The DoT will ask for new proposals from carriers interested in RHI, IMT, INL, BRD, and from the time the bids are opened until the time the first flight takes off is often 4-6 months. Personally I wouldn't hesitate to book Frontier out of RHI a few months out because they are legally bound to stay, and they are getting subsidy to do so.

I'm sure Frontier wants out of RHI as soon as they can, but they're pretty much stuck there for the time being.

Listen to Knope, he knows better than me!

Knope, is there a minimum daily frequency that must be met and continued in the meantime, or can there be less than daily frequency?

Except for Ely, Nevada, I think all the EAS markets in the lower 48 are guaranteed at least 12 flights per week. But there's something of a sliding scale which ties in capacity, too. And it's based on historic traffic levels at the airport.

So when the DoT bids out an airport like Ironwood with low historic traffic levels, the document asks for a minimum of 12 flights per week with aircraft of 15 or more seats.

A somewhat larger aiport like Rhinelander needs more seats than that. So it's bid out with a minimum of 12 flights per week with aircraft of 30+ seats, or alternately 19 flights per week with aircraft of 15+ seats. But the minimum is generally 12 flights per week -- they won't entertain someone coming in three times per week with a 100-seat plane.

With few exceptions, communities are guaranteed at least 15-seat aircraft. So when smaller airlines like Cape Air and SeaPort come in with 9-seat planes, it's usually because the community has signed a waiver, permitting the smaller aircaft. Usually they are either trying to get higher frequency, or they are hoping to find aircraft small enough to match their low level of demand. Rhinelander's historic traffic numbers well exceed the typical community willing to accept 9-seat aircraft, so I don't expect them to go that route.

Perhaps more to mke9499's question, I don't think there's much precident, if any, for a "held-in" airline like Frontier to be allowed to cut service below the minimums. They're likely stuck with 12/week until someone else comes in.

Thanks, I feel better. Our flights are 7/10 and 7/20. Just checked and they left on time today.

Good to know...I wouldn't have any concern about July.


Perhaps more to mke9499's question, I don't think there's much precident, if any, for a "held-in" airline like Frontier to be allowed to cut service below the minimums. They're likely stuck with 12/week until someone else comes in. Now that they know they won't be allowed to leave anytime soon, I wonder if they (Chautauqua, the sister airilne of Frontier who is really operating the filghts) will go to the bother of seeing if everyone involved will alllow them to instead serve Rhinelander via Chicago and their AA* operation. It would be a lot easier for them than keeping things running in MKE for months, it would boost Rhinelander's usefulness by having flights to a hub again, and it would cut down on costs for them. But the DoT has to agree, and American as well. And it's a chunk of effort for a route they don't want to be serving anyway.

Soon, There will be six. :D:D

I tried to book a Frontier flight out of RHI several times this past February and March and the online system would not load RHI flights.

I called the nice people at the RHI airport at that time and they assured me that the Frontier flights would be running at least through May.

Ultimately because of the uncertainty I gave up and drove to MKE instead, the experience was like a bad joke.