September T100's (onboard loads)
 

Here are the September T100's (onboard loads) for Frontier's eastern division and for select competitors. As always, remember that onboard loads are only half the picture when trying to judge the relative financial performance as they tell us pretty much nothing about fare and traffic composition.

Routes primarily served by Airbus / Ejet
(Note that the thru-passenger undercount issue was particularly pronounced on some MCI routes as noted below)
94.8% ….. MKE ….. SAN
93.0% ….. MKE ….. SEA
93.0% ….. MKE ….. DEN
92.9% ….. MKE ….. LAS
90.9% ….. MCI ….. SEA ….94.3% one direction, 80.7% the other
87.5% ….. MCI ….. SFO ….94.3% one direction, 80.7% the other
81.4% ….. MCI ….. BOS
80.5% ….. MKE ….. MCO
80.2% ….. MKE ….. PHX
78.3% ….. MCI ….. MSY
78.1% ….. MKE ….. DFW
77.0% ….. MCI ….. DCA
75.7% ….. MKE ….. LGA
73.9% ….. MCI ….. LAX
73.8% ….. MKE ….. MCI
72.6% ….. OMA ….. DCA
70.7% ….. MKE ….. BOS
69.8% ….. MCI ….. LGA
67.7% ….. MKE ….. SAT
67.1% ….. MCI ….. AUS ….74.8% one direction, 59.5% the other
62.2% ….. MKE ….. DCA
58.4% ….. MCI ….. SAT ….64.5% one direction, 52.4% the other
50.8% ….. MCI ….. MSP

Routes primarily served by ERJ
91.0% ….. MKE ….. MSP
90.5% ….. MKE ….. PIT
87.4% ….. MKE ….. PHL
86.5% ….. MKE ….. EWR
85.7% ….. MKE ….. BNA
81.8% ….. MKE ….. OMA
79.9% ….. MKE ….. BDL
79.7% ….. MKE ….. IND
78.0% ….. MKE ….. STL
77.5% ….. MKE ….. DSM
76.5% ….. MKE ….. RHI
76.3% ….. MKE ….. BKG
74.8% ….. MKE ….. GRR
74.8% ….. MKE ….. CMH
72.2% ….. MKE ….. FNT
71.2% ….. MKE ….. CLE
70.9% ….. BKG ….. AUS
69.2% ….. MKE ….. MSN
65.5% ….. MKE ….. SDF
64.5% ….. MKE ….. DAY
62.9% ….. MKE ….. GRB
59.0% ….. MKE ….. MBL
47.9% ….. MKE ….. ATW

American
74.2%.....MKE.....DFW

AirTran
96.9% ….. MKE ….. SFO
96.5% ….. MKE ….. SEA
87.3% ….. MKE ….. LAS
84.9% ….. MKE ….. LAX
83.7% ….. MKE ….. FLL
76.6% ….. MKE ….. MSP
73.1% ….. MKE ….. LGA
71.8% ….. MKE ….. ATL
71.4% ….. MKE ….. MCO
68.8% ….. MKE ….. RSW
68.4% ….. MKE ….. TPA
63.1% ….. MKE ….. DCA
62.4% ….. MKE ….. BOS
59.7% ….. MKE ….. DEN
51.1% ….. MKE ….. BWI
45.3% ….. MKE ….. CAK
40.1% ….. MKE ….. SRQ
23.5% ….. MKE ….. DSM

Skywest operating as FL* (operated through 9/7/11)
79.9% ….. MKE ….. PIT
76.1% ….. MKE ….. STL
74.1% ….. MKE ….. CAK
71.1% ….. MKE ….. IND
67.8% ….. MKE ….. OMA
62.2% ….. MKE ….. DSM

Southwest
87.5% ….. MKE ….. LAS
85.8% ….. MKE ….. PHX
69.7% ….. MKE ….. DEN
69.2% ….. MKE ….. MCI
69.0% ….. MKE ….. BWI
66.9% ….. MKE ….. MCO
57.5% ….. MKE ….. TPA
46.5% ….. MKE ….. STL

DL* at Kansas City
86.4% ….. MCI ….. BOS
79.7% ….. MCI ….. LAX
77.8% ….. MCI ….. MSY
75.7% ….. MCI ….. AUS
71.8% ….. MCI ….. LGA
57.2% ….. MCI ….. CMH

DL* at Omaha
71.9%.....OMA.....DCA

I'll see if I can get DEN posted fairly soon for those interested.

Wow.... I assume FL MKE - DSM is mainline 717 aircraft? 23% load factor is not making money for sure.

Yeah, the 2011 Airtran departures in Sept boarded virtually the same passengers per flight with 717 as they boarded on each CRJ flight in Sept 2010...actually fractionally fewer...and operated virtually the same schedule. I have a bunch of numbers I'm working with and will post fairly soon. The dsm a d cak flights are really just waiting until they can move to mdw on the wn code. It's the only reasonable explanation.

You'd think they'd at least have a fire sale on MKE-DSM to try to generate some more revenue.

There aren't better routes that can fly these planes in the interim? It could still be a while before they get them on the WN code to MDW.

A bit ago I was asked if I had an idea how much of AirTran's September year-over-year traffic fall was due to the Skywest markets ending. With more detailed numbers from the DoT available, I can shed some light on that.

Here's some info comparing 2010 to 2011 for FL/FL* at Milwaukee 2010 versus 2011.

Some AirTran markets saw notable increase in frequency. Those markets combined for about 10, 200 more passengers in September 2011 over September 2011. Both MCO and DCA had one more daily flight this year versus last, while the rest of these markets had fewer day-of-week cancelations in 2011 versus last year.

In most cases, the increased capacity meant lower -- in some cases much lower -- load factor.

2010 LF.. 2011 LF .. chg in pts .. chg in pax ..
86.6% ….. 71.4% ….. -15.2% ……. 2624 ……. MCO ……. 30 more round trips
88.7% ….. 87.3% ……. -1.4% ……. 2136 ……. LAS ……. 10 more round trips
69.6% ….. 68.8% ……. -0.8% ……. 1505 ……. RSW ……. 11 more round trips
72.4% ….. 63.1% ……. -9.3% ……. 1122 ……. DCA ……. 28 more round trips
94.1% ….. 96.5% ……… 2.4% ……. 1956 ……. SEA ……. 8 more round trips
83.5% ….. 68.4% ….. -15.1% …….. 244 ……. TPA ……. 8 more round trips
90.5% ….. 84.9% ……. -5.6% …….. 683 ……. LAX ……. 8 more round trips

Then there was one new market in 2011 and two markets dropped from the prior year. Those combined for a net loss of about 10,700, more tha offsetting the gains in traffic where frequencies were increased (above).

+0422.....SRQ
-8296.....DFW
-2832.....SAN

The rest of the AirTran markets which did not see a notable difference in frequency for 2011 versus 2010 combined for a net decreased in about 6,800 passengers year over year. And given that frequency was essentially unchanged, fewer pax meant lower loads in most (but not all) markets, too:

2010 LF.. 2011 LF .. chg in pts .. chg in pax ..
63.8% ….. 83.7% ……. 19.9% ……. 1042 ……. FLL
93.9% ….. 96.9% ……… 3.0% …….. 290 ……. SFO
69.9% ….. 71.8% ……… 1.9% …….. -88 ……. ATL
79.7% ….. 76.6% ……. -3.1% ……. -320 ……. MSP
64.9% ….. 51.1% ….. -13.8% ….. -1420 ……. BWI
76.9% ….. 73.1% ……. -3.8% ….. -1918 ……. LGA
70.3% ….. 62.4% ……. -7.9% ….. -2074 ……. BOS
74.2% ….. 59.7% ….. -14.5% ….. -2339 ……. DEN

Last but not least are those Skywest markets. They combined for about 18,500 fewer passengers this year versus last:

-4817 ….. IND
-5011 ….. OMA
-4849 ….. PIT
-5410 ….. STL
+1402 ….. CAK
+0095 ….. DSM

Here's some further information on the three former CRJ markets turned to 717 on FL or 737 on WN:

Akron
2010 36.0 pax per flight
2011 53.0 pax per flight
year-over-year traffic +35.4%
year-over-year seats +106.0%

Des Moines
2010 28.4 pax per flight
2011 28.0 pax per flight
year-over-year traffic +3.0%
year-over-year seats +122.9%

(note that the Des Moines pax per flight is lower than last year even though traffic is up 3% because there was 1x more round trip flight per week this year than last)

St Louis
2010 37.6 pax per fliight
2011 63.7 pax per flight
year-over-year traffic +15.8%

Obviously September is a slow month, but we shall see how much better these get. Having Frontier out of STL starting in October will help them. Having Frontier out of DSM will give a smaller boost as MKE-DSM is a much smaller market.

Anyway...time to shut off electronic devices as we come over Lake Michigan...
year-over-year seats +77.6%

You're too funny about that onboard wifi novelty ;)

Get ready to miss it on upcoming flights that don't have gogo.

It's exciting to be plugged in from so far up! I remember my first time, I even blogged about it.

Anyway another great observation Knope. Definitely going to be interesting to see what happens to these markets once the competition from F9 leaves. Could provide clues as to if there is enough traffic to one day support F9 should FL/WN leave them to MKE. Unfortunately for some markets, it doesn't look to hot. I'd consider DSM borderline drivable from MKE for any leisure type traffic.

LOL...you're probably right, though I am cheap enough to not want to always spring for it.

At least, even during flights where you don't spring for it, you can still tool around on the Frontier site for free.