Some MKE competitive changes
 

AirTran loaded a revised schedule this past weekend and it includes some interesting changes at MKE starting in June.

-MSP increases from 3 to 4 roundtrips per day.
-FLL will be flown daily instead of weeknd only
-MSY and PHX have been pulled (these don't appear to be seasonal). PHX was supposed to be 2x daily.
-The second daily flight to TPA has been cut.
-SRQ has been scaled back significantly (I believe it only operates 1x per week)

Mainline departures will be up one flight this summer vs. last summer but overall capacity seems to be flat with the use of more 717s.

The MSP flights carry overwhelming connecting traffic and the addition of the 4th flight will better support all of the capacity to BOS, LGA, and DCA.

In other competitive news, American Airlines begins flying MKE-DFW today with an all mainline schedule (3x daily M80s).

Thanks for posting, Blue.

MSP: Going gangbusters for FL connections to the east. It's amazing the amount of people using a hub airport MSP choose to connect on FL in MKE. There must be a big difference in fares.

MSY: I'm not surprised it's being cut...I flew it earlier this year to take advantage of the nonstop while it was still around. I'm glad I went when I did.

SRQ: Not surprised about this one either. It was a unique market to try, but I didn't think the market was there. I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't pulled completely later on. Interesting that six Florida airports are currently served non-stop from MKE.

PHX: With four competitors, I believe there are more airlines on this route than any other out of MKE. It will still served by WN (which FL will be folded into WN anyway), F9 and US, so there's still plenty of competition on that route.

TPA: Similar to PHX, as it's also a WN route. After the WN/FL acquisition is complete, WN will be the only carrier on that route, unless F9 decides to come back from PIE.

FLL: Nice to see an increase here to balance some of the other cuts.

Overall, I think FL is just trying to maintain whatever amount of profit (if any) it has at MKE, until WN takes control. They have built up a decent following at MKE...hopefully the new bosses see that it can, in a small way, complement the Chicago market.

Of all the MKE routes, I think MSP is one of the most likely targets for the cutting block once Southwest takes over. That route runs high loads but it has almost no O&D traffic (for AirTran anyways). It's unusual in that regard compared to the other AirTran MKE routes. I think the MSP link is part of the reason AirTran can justify such high frequencies to LGA and DCA.

As for some of the other changes, the scheduling adjustments seem just plain weird. For example, AirTran cuts MKE-BWI when traffic to the DC area peaks during spring but chose to run it during the dead of winter. Likewise, going from 2x daily MKE-PHX to nothing is a pretty substantial cut. If you look at Southwest, they don't fly MKE-TPA year round and MCO is being cut back to 1x daily at the start of spring break. Strange.

Personally I think this is just the beginning of the flight reductions but we'll see what this fall brings.

I wonder if WN will move to MSP-BWI to funnel East Coast traffic through BWI instead of MKE.

MSP-BWI would complement MSP-MDW (already served) well. If Southwest adds MDW-DCA like many suspect, virtually every connection available through Milwaukee will be available via Chicago.

Everything you say is pretty much true but MSP has connections most everywhere FL flies out of MKE not just LGA and DCA.

But the contrarian in me says MSP grows and MSP-MKE connex change as DL will downsize their former NWA MSP hub in a few years and the new WN would be well positioned to replace it.

Both FL and WN seem to love competing with DL. It has been profitable for them.

MKE? That will be a matter of who survives at the current level of competition. DL and AA have increased seats to their main hubs. US and UA just sort of maintaining. They're all fighting for share regardless of profitability and waiting to see what happens. I don't see WN or FL with a roughly 40% combined share blinking but RJETs relatively low level of unrestricted cash becoming a serious problem not to far out. (less than $200M and 95% credit card holdback with $2.6B debt)

Could say B6 buy up F9's Airbus metal with gates in MKE, DEN and a few other cities and expand Westward in today's environment?

And Republic returns to their successful core business as a regional jet provider?

The MSP flights do connect to the entire AirTran network out of MKE. However, that route in particular carries a tremendous amount of connecting to traffic to BOS, LGA and DCA. It's not uncommon for some flights to have 50 + passengers connecting to these three destinations.

Honestly, I don't think MKE-MSP makes one cent in profit for AirTran. But it provides a critical link to the hub from a network perspective by feeding BOS, LGA, and DCA and allowing AirTran to justify higher frequency than what normally could be supported.

As for Southwest's future in MKE, we're all waiting to see what happens. IMO, we're likely to see new routes (STL) and increased frequency in existing markets (LAS, PHX, DEN) while the East-West hub and SkyWest flying are dismantled. If fuel prices continue to rise, I think it's likely some of the West Coast service will be eliminated or greatly reduced this fall as well. Southwest will still be a large player in MKE post merger, but the scope of the operation will change.

One other point to consider-Southwest has stated multiple times that they plan to ramp-up ATL quickly and make it into one of their largest stations. Since AirTan has been cutting back in ATL in recent years, the planes needed to fund this expansion will need to come from somewhere and network rationalization will play a big part.

Agreed, but it's not totally unique to AirTran's MKE hub. The same could be said about a number of destinations from other hubs as well. For instance, I'm sure there are a number of DL routes that places like MSP, MEM, SLC, and CVG wouldn't see had they not become hubs for a major carrier.

But, you're absolutely right. FL's MKE-MSP route seems to be particularly pronounced. What I can't figure out is why so many passengers choose to connect on FL on these routes over flying nonstop on DL from MSP. Is there that much of a difference in fare?


When the acquisition takes place, ATL will immediately become one of WN's biggest stations, if not the biggest. It will be interesting to see what they're able to accomplish. AirTran has been close to maxing out at ATL for a number of years now, and that's one of the reasons they decided to grow in places like MKE, BWI and CAK.

I remember talking to Joe Leonard a few years ago, and he was desperately trying to find places to base all the aircraft deliveries they had on order. He said this was because ATL couldn't handle them. Some of those deliveries have been deferred, and some have already been transferred to WN.

ATL has also been marginally scaled back since then, and maybe WN will take a different approach there (maybe less focused on hub-and-spoke banks to focus on O&D).

It will be fun to watch, that's for sure.

I think you missed the point of why Republic is doing this. The writing is on the wall for the regional airlines. Nobody wants 50 seat RJs anymore. Why would Republic return to something that is going down hill in the next 5 years?

Agreed, and it doesn't seem to be helping them.

But to prove that point RJET is making more money on larger aircraft that they've removed some E-170s from the F9 operation to service other carriers... and downgraded the F9 metal to ERJs. Which doesn't seem to help their F9 operation but seemingly puts more focus on their core as a provider.

While that might be called rightsizing in business nobody wants RJs anymore. And their more expensive to fly per seat mile.

Based on continued performance problems at MDW I'm not so sure they're ready for the much bigger ATL... Yeah, they have LAS which is big for them but rarely prone to weather or traffic problems.

It will be fun to watch as they grow with hubs. I don't see ATL as O&D for much more than a quarter of the gates they'll inherit. Unless they suddenly switch their game and establish some domestic and international interline agreements. ATL is all about connections.

If I was running B6 I'd be making a play for F9's Airbus aircraft and gates in certain markets knowing the WN/FL merger is going to leave profitable room for growth Westward. Frontier is in a bad situation right now. I don't see them as launch customer being around long enough to accept the first CS300.

But that said my Crazy 8-ball has been wrong many times. :D

The E170 deal would look very different if the timing was just a bit different.

1. The decision is made to replace E170 with E190 as Airbus and E190 arrive
2. As Airbus and E190's arrive, E170's are parked
3. All E170's are removed from the branded operation
4. Republic finds a profitable home for several parked E170's with a fixed fee contract for Delta

Under that scenario, Republic would be lauded for making the branded fleet more competitively efficient, and for finding a way to make money on those parked, less-desirable E170.

The actual situation is very much like that one, only Delta wants the E170 faster than the replacements are arriving. That creates a temporary gap which must be bakfilled. Part of the gap is being filled by adding three additional lines of RJ flying to the Milwaukee operation. From what I've been told...and what makes logical sense...the lines of RJ flying will be cut back.

This does not mean that there are not challenges on the branded side. Of course not. But the E170-related moves this summer are really not indicative of larger moves to curtail the branded side in favor of the fixed-fee side.

Skywest FL* cutbacks
 

Effective 6/1, the Skywest FL* operation will cut back to three aircraft.

CAK stays at 3x (was already planned to go to go back to 3x 5/26)
DSM remains at 2x
PIT drops from 3x to 2x
IND drops from 3x to 2x
OMA drops from 3x to 2x
STL drops from 3x (Mondays 4x) to 2x

In a nutshell:

CAK has a solid 3x/day schedule

STL and PIT each have an early morning and an evening MKE-xxx-MKE round trip, which works for business travel.

IND is largely wrecked as a business market:
MKE-IND departures are at 10:35am and 9:08pm, IND-MKE departures are at 6:09am and 1:08pm

DSM no longer has the overnight aircraft, so the two flights are mid-day (arriving DSM 11:42am and 4:18pm, heading back east at 12:07pm and 4:43pm)

OMA retains the overnight aircraft eastbound at 5:41am and arriving back into OMA at 10:52pm, plus the mid-afternoon flight remains.


Interesting that CAK, which was cut back last year from 3x to 2x, now will be the only market at 3x. Conversely STL seemed to be the strongest in 2010 but is being cut back to 2x.

This cutback should help Frontier with loads and fare levels in several regional markets, but some of these markets are already packed on peak days. I hope they bring in some added capacity, especially to PIT, IND, DSM and STL.

Fare differences between MSP and MKE are huge. I've had flights on non FL/F9 metal price at 1/2 to 1/3 of the MSP price. Last march I went to DCA on CO, I had ex-MSP price at $549 (CO was cheapest carrier) and ex-MKE price at $170 (CO tied with F9 on price). FL and F9 often price significantly less than DL and DL 1-stops are typically cheaper than DL non-stops from MSP.

MSP has always had astronomical fares. I remember paying $800 r/t to get from MSP-CMH back in the 90's. Of course, in those days, you couldn't get a cheap fare unless you stayed over a Saturday night.