Profit warning 2020

Old Feb 28, 20, 1:49 am
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Profit warning 2020

Finnair revises its outlook for the financial year 2020 and issues a profit warning
40-50Milj Ä savings are searched now

https://company.finnair.com/en/media...ews?id=3586659
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Old Feb 28, 20, 1:50 am
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Just saw that

I guess it was no surprise as Finnair as a big Asian exposure
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Old Feb 28, 20, 2:06 am
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ĒQ1 impact will be limited..Ē

Things change quicky...not a surprise to anyone Iím sure. Difficult times for AY...
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Old Feb 28, 20, 2:21 am
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I'd say that the wording in this release indicates they have changed strategy. In first message they envisioned a shorter limited problem and end of Q1 as the affected time frame. Now they talk about lay-offs, capacity adjustments and especially a lower demand in the medium term. Despite savings from fuel et-c they will report significantly lower result Q2.

As for saving money, they are in a difficult position, as the fleet finance will cost them dearly even if all planes are on the ground.
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Old Feb 28, 20, 2:35 am
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Maybe they will put small part of the grounded A350's on HEL-AGP-HEL, assuming NAS is going under. At least NAS share pricing is in the diving.... not an easy situation for any airliner at this time.
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Old Feb 28, 20, 4:01 am
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“While the spread of the coronavirus has had a limited impact on our operations so far, we now see a negative impact on demand.

This is what the CEO should have said a month ago. They now have approximately 30% of LH destinations suspended (and surely low pax loads on the ones still operating) and he calls it 'limited impact on our operations'. He now sees a negative impact on demand...he didn't see it coming late Jan / early Feb when it was so obvious to anyone following the news or just FT here?

If I was a shareholder I would definitely have a few questions to management about the transparency (or accuracy) of their demand forecasting and the way it is communicated to investors.
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Old Feb 28, 20, 5:10 am
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Originally Posted by R2 View Post
This is what the CEO should have said a month ago. They now have approximately 30% of LH destinations suspended (and surely low pax loads on the ones still operating) and he calls it 'limited impact on our operations'. He now sees a negative impact on demand...he didn't see it coming late Jan / early Feb when it was so obvious to anyone following the news or just FT here?

If I was a shareholder I would definitely have a few questions to management about the transparency (or accuracy) of their demand forecasting and the way it is communicated to investors.
I think they wanted to see the reactions on the "postpone or cancel" policy. They knew flights in the short term were lost business, but hoped to save travel in Q2.
And I guess we now know that most people cancelled.
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Old Feb 28, 20, 2:41 pm
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Originally Posted by OHTOW View Post
assuming NAS is going under. At least NAS share pricing is in the diving.... not an easy situation for any airliner at this time.
NAS again going under? Why now? Was it 3 months earlier it was going under also?

And their share price not affecting flight operations.
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Old Feb 28, 20, 5:29 pm
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Originally Posted by OH-LGG View Post
NAS again going under? Why now? Was it 3 months earlier it was going under also?

And their share price not affecting flight operations.
Operations are fine for now, but there is the issue of debtholders being scared about NAS not being able to service their current debt, NAS Investor Relations had to come out with a "panic aversion" press release yesterday to try and calm fears, but share price has still dropped from around 40 NOK to 16 NOK at the lowest this week. The firm also has a lower cash reserve than expected, and very likely that there will have to be a new equity offering. (market cap of equity currently at around 3 billion NOK with 50+ billion NOK in debt) Not great news for existing shareholders. I want to see NAS succeed as a Nordic/European LCC, as the competition is healthy for us as customers, but the business case is really not looking good right now.
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Old Mar 7, 20, 7:23 am
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Had a segment run today, 4 bounces. Cabin load factor 20/23/21/17 % on my flights. Well, Saturday morning, but this is not good. They must be bleeding money.
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Old Mar 7, 20, 7:49 am
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Originally Posted by seldomrfly View Post
Had a segment run today, 4 bounces. Cabin load factor 20/23/21/17 % on my flights. Well, Saturday morning, but this is not good. They must be bleeding money.
Huh, that's totally crazy...my flights this week, all on weekdays, were maybe 40-70%, rough estimates from EF/visually, some of them flights that are usually booked to the limit. Very low also but nothing like around those 20% you're reporting. It really seems 50% cancellations are needed to get load factors to any reasonable level, and that's with the current state of things. One week is like an eternity now, in airline business (and in many others too, of course). All we can hope that this gets better soon and panic won't grow anymore.
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Old Mar 7, 20, 8:45 am
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Flew HEL-LHR early Thursday, and it was quite busy, surprisingly so even for an off-season mid-week flight.

But as for how long this will last, I can't see this being shorter than a normal influenza season. I'd be positively surprised if it's sorted by Mayday.
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Old Mar 7, 20, 8:52 am
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My HEL-LIS yesterday was filled to the brim. J had a few empty seats, though (and a few upgraders who made the flight feel like a Spearair to PMI ). Great purser.

Side note: it was an A319 with 4 FAs. I thought it might have something to do with the long flight time, or the fear of an overnighter getting sick, but no, the fourth FA was there only because on their way back, they'll be on an A320 (they stay two nights at LIS).

edit: the day before yesterday (Thursday)

Last edited by ffay005; Mar 7, 20 at 10:15 am
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Old Mar 7, 20, 9:02 am
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Originally Posted by ffay005 View Post
My HEL-LIS yesterday was filled to the brim. J had a few empty seats, though (and a few upgraders who made the flight feel like a Spearair to PMI ). Great purser.

Side note: it was an A319 with 4 FAs. I thought it might have something to do with the long flight time, or the fear of an overnighter getting sick, but no, the fourth FA was there only because on their way back, they'll be on an A320 (they stay two nights at LIS).
Thatís great, I think itís not yet so serious with leisure travel to non-affected areas, itís business travel that has fallen off the cliff.
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Old Mar 7, 20, 9:42 am
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Also morning flight to BMA a couple of days ago was surprisingly empty, only about 40% of seats taken. Two domestic flights in Sweden even less than that. Evening ARN-HEL almost full 321, but perhaps as the earlier one was cancelled. Very clearly not business as usual.
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