AY Finnair forum Quiz, games, jokes -thread
#32
Original Poster
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: HEL
Programs: AY, SK, TK
Posts: 6,543
#33
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2011
Location: MMX (CPH)
Programs: Eurobonus Diamond, QR Platinum, AY+ Platinum, A3*G, Nordic Choice Lifetime Platinum, SJ Prio Black
Posts: 12,700
#34
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: HEL
Programs: Drawer of Cards
Posts: 393
Seeing lots of veteran here , give my hat off. You guys were plat when i was just born couple years.... My first ever flight was when i was3 years old. dont remember anything ,except the photo memory.
I have AY679 XXXXXX, this one was signup around 2011+, lost old account and signed up again when i really start to fly for work and leisure.
I have AY679 XXXXXX, this one was signup around 2011+, lost old account and signed up again when i really start to fly for work and leisure.
#35
Original Poster
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: HEL
Programs: AY, SK, TK
Posts: 6,543
Let's get some serious "German tank problem" analysis going to establish the sign-up rate...
If throwing dice and getting 9/10 times number 6, I believe the probability of getting number six is higher that 1/6!

#36
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: HEL
Programs: AY Plat Lumo
Posts: 1,395
My experience on AYPlus numbers are as follows: mine, from early 1990's (potentially changed from 8 digit to 9 digit at some point of time, but my approaching Alzheimers or similar has gracefully forgotten the details) starts with 62xxx. Later, my spouse got 692xxx, oldest son the same 692xxx, later the kids have been receiving 696xxx (could be also Finnair Junior series?).

#37
Join Date: Dec 2018
Programs: AY+
Posts: 16
What you are describing is actually a frequentist view. Bayesians would likely have a high-kurtosis prior for theta (assuming bernoulli trials) centered around 1/6. The posterior would thus still be around 1/6 despite the likelihood of the observations.
#38
Original Poster
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: HEL
Programs: AY, SK, TK
Posts: 6,543

#41
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: London
Programs: AY+
Posts: 125
Mine starts at 642 - I'm not sure if it's the number I got as a junior member, or if this was later as an adult. I'm a bit worried that I have no memory when I signed up as I should not be approaching Alzheimers age yet!
#44
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: London
Programs: AY+
Posts: 125
Edit: I found an MA thesis which describes an earlier invite only -programme launched in 1978! Anyone admit they were a member then? P 14 https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/fb9...073853c2b0.pdf

Also, the junior card was at least around in 2001 (via google books: International Cases in Tourism Management, Horner & Swarbrooke, 2004, p 223)

Last edited by Eyrie; Feb 7, 20 at 11:17 am