Coverage of the Delta FF program changes
 

Check out who broke the news on FT about the Delta changes..... none other than legend himself -- Randy Peterson. Very interesting. He's been predicting this for years, so I guess it must feel vindicating for him to be right. (Though if I was sitting on 17M miles -- as was once reported -- I sure would NOT want to be right about this prediction.)

And of course, the post is more of a stub telling you to come read the whole story on InsideFlyer. I guess it's the history of journalism to try to profit off of tragedy, LOL.

Apparently the news was leaked.... will be interesting to see which bloggers have their stories all queued up, and which ones were left out in the cold. Can't wait to read the spin from Delta Points!

Considering DeltaPoints.com didn't have any sort of reaction at all ready - and they were IIRC about to launch a delta mileage run site (which now has absolutely ZERO value) - i'm guessing that their "inside sources" left them out in the cold.

My prediction though? somehow the spin will be towards getting an AMEX card. to think, if they still had their chase links - they'd be able to push that!

With several different sources sharing the same details at midnight it sounds a lot more like a standard media embargo/release process to me than someone "leaking" the story out.

Decent number of posts up about it so far, but I haven't had time to run my normal analysis yet. Coming soon enough.

Call it what you want, some 'journalists' were on the inside, some were not. Still surprising to me, given that I don't recall such a coordinated release of information with the switch to PQD's, partner devaluation, etc. Why now? If you're going to release bad news, why not aim for Friday 5PM, and hope that the media doesn't pick it up? Or does DL actually believe in their heart of hearts that this is really a positive for their customers?

Will be interesting to see your analysis.

They're not the only ones calling it that, believe it or not.

True enough; some of the HVCs have figured that they will earn more RDMs with this new program -- as long as they keep flying those expensive F and BE flights paid for with OPM. But eventually when they have to pay for travel themselves it might not seem so positive.

Nice to see Randy around here, even if it is just to draw traffic to his newest blog! ^

Speaking of which...is "The new InsideFlyer blog" on the blogroll? Seems not.

Also...don't BA blogger chaff at their business partner competing against them?

I buy premium cabin tickets with both my own as well as OPM.

I'm looking pretty hard at the new DL program right now. :)

I do feel terrible for mileage runners. Especially if AA and/or UA copy.

But, keeping this on topic for this forum, this also can't be great news for bloggers that make their bones by doing and blogging about mileage runs.

Oh right, this is a great deal for the 1%-ers..... or more likely the 0.1%-ers. is that why the WSJ is being DL's lap dog?

Maybe we should #Occupy ATL. :D

Some of those sources received the news early.

The rest of us — I doubt that I am part of any special group — received an official press release from Delta Air Lines at 5:00 this morning.

I stayed up until 6:15 in the morning to get the story out there.

Agree. I actually left a comment on FM's blog about it. He's saying it's not so bad (or maybe good?). Do they honestly think that the CC bonanza will persist indefinitely? If DL is screwing the people who actually fly them and directly give them money, what concern do they have for those who use a CC with some bank?

As I pointed out to FM, if all the majors adopt this, I'll have to find a new hobby. But I'll still have a job. Will the same be true for the bloggers?

According to many of the articles I read this was 'announced at' (ie, embargoed until) midnight. It was wily of Randy to have his blog article ready then post first at 12:08 on FT with a link to his blog since he was clearly in the early- receivers group. Old media still retains SOME advantages! ;)

My very first thought was: what about credit card miles.

I guess it remains to be seen if this approach enhances or kills the allure of CC miles. For some (like Mileage Runners), CC miles may become a real necessity rather than a nicety since they are losing miles. And some mileage runners may turn into CC churners (if they were not churning already). OTOH, some folks will be leaving the game altogether as it wont be as much fun as it was. And who knows how DL and the CCs are viewing each other in this new paradigm.

And until the effect on CC miles shakes out, the fate of P&M bloggers will be unclear. But these do have to be stomach-churning days for our blogging friends.

Here's Gary Leff from VFTW with some choice opinions on the change on ABC World News:

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/delt...ogram-22690621

I'm not sure who all you had in mind, but I felt that the InsideFlyer post this morning was overly positive about it.

http://insideflyer.boardingarea.com/...miles-revenue/

It almost felt like a DL press release in spots like this:

Not sure that respect for members and Delta belong in the same sentence.


My first thought this morning was "oh well, this makes my CC earning even better". My next thought was "yeah but they will surely screw CC holders next". Maybe you'll only earn 1 mile per $2 or something like that.

And the spread of this type of scheme to UA, AA, is only a matter of time I fear. I think this does portend some bad things for some M&P bloggers in the long run. Not to mention the MR forum on here

Based on his banter with Gleff on the topic, I'd bet he's had this post queued for a couple of years now!

On the one hand, this is exactly how hotel programs work. And I have said for years that if I ran an airline frequency program it would be dollar based, not distance based. Because the distance based model only made sense in a regulated environment where price and distance were directly correlated by regulation/law. But it hasn't been that way for 30-some years now.

OTOH, it seems to me that to some extent Randy and other EM&PR providers built their empires on the backs of mileage runners, so gloating about and/or celebrating this move is a bit crass.

Coverage of the Delta FF program changes
 

Blogging is an evolving business. Those who do not adapt will be out of business soon.
The FF "fly free like a king" mantra was never meant to attract but a small segment. Now that you have dozens or maybe hundreds of blogger out there, changes and adjustments like this are going to happen frequently. What has taken them this so long is puzzling. Thank God I don't live in a DL hub.

UA here ya come!

Skypesos
 

Does anyone know whoever originated the term "Skypesos"? Have been wondering about that for years.

Gary Leff.

It got most widely circulated by him, and he was the first one to use it on FT or travel blogs.

I have no doubt that he came up with it on his own, whomever may have already been using the term prior to that or not.

Seems the coverage through several blogs, including VFTW, OMAAT, and TPG, softened from Sunday to Thursday (TPG posts: Sunday, "Why I Dumped Delta"; Thursday, "I Am Cautiously Optimistic"). Does this reflect genuine surprise around the blogosphere that, at the moment, there was no change to the highest and lowest redemption levels (of course, with one new level apiece slipped in between the low and middle and the middle and high)? Or a sudden realization that maybe they were biting the feeding hand just a little too hard?

Criticism of earning rates with the tie-in to actual revenue spent on tickets seemed a little rash since the airlines, rightly or wrongly, have for several years now made it clear that the path to earning miles (and now even partially earning status) was easier through non-flying methods than BIS. I've flown a total of 2 paid revenue seats on US, AA, and UA since joining FT, redeemed for six award tickets, and have gone from a combined 43K miles on those three carriers to nearly 900K--and I know I'm small fry compared to many. Furthermore, it would appear to me that concern about further "official" devaluation was equally overblown--US has also made it clear that you can keep your "official" levels the same while making low-level nearly impossible to find and allowing all the award tickets you want at the highest level.

I'm certainly not defending DL here--there's a reason my stash of miles hasn't included DL despite their presence at my home airport. But the reversal of tone this week seemed a bit difficult to understand other than that perhaps a few DL and Amex warning shots got fired over several folks' heads. Although I guess it's possible that sheepishness overcame the blogosphere when it became apparent that the "sky is falling" mentality brought to stirring fear of potential further "official" devaluation of the DL award charts proved way overblown, especially for these three blogs whose authors certainly seem to have become, in various ways, voices in the MSM for the FF community.

My gut feeling is that most wrote of outrage based on partial information because all changes must be bad, no matter the reality. Plus that's what readers want to hear. And now that they've actually read the details it doesn't seem as bad.

I agree for the most part, but maybe part of that outrage seems to come from the disconnect between the image that at least two of those bloggers would like to impart that they are privy to inside airline information (don't think they're blowing smoke there as VFTW and TPG certainly have had a recently visible presence in the MSM which would mean some airlines would look to them as point persons for leaks of advance information--but in case you haven't noticed it, VFTW was on ABC, the Colbert Report, and CBS and TPG seems to have an in with the NYT--not that you'd ever learn that from their blogs ;)) and the reality that, at least for this go round, they were just as much in the dark as the rest of us. And when their uninformed guesses turned out wrong, they've had to do a bit of backtracking.

VFTW's evolved take: Delta is destroying the romance of FFPs.

My take:

The executives who invented miles-based FF programs grew up under the Standard Industry Fare Level (SIFL) formula, which provided a distance-based formula for calculating fares based roughly on industry-level costs, a 12% rate of return and target load factor of 55%. SIFL-based fares were intended to better align the fare structure with the distance-based economies of modern jet aircraft. (see http://www.nber.org/chapters/c12570.pdf)

So those executives naturally and correctly correlated distance (miles) flown by a customer with revenue in creating those programs, designed to reward those customers who flew the farthest and therefore, by regulation, paid the most. The tactics (rewarding flyers based on miles) was closely correlated to the goal (making your most profitable customers happy).

But it has been two generations since the US airline industry was regulated. And price has been divorced from distance for over 30 years. Miles flown by a customer is now a totally irrational way to measure revenue from that customer.

The whole notion of mileage running is/was simply a result of this enormous lag in FF program tactics keeping up with their goal (rewarding the most profitable customers).

If I ran an airline frequency program it would be dollar based, not distance based. Because the distance based model only made sense in a regulated environment where price and distance were directly correlated by regulation/law. Today revenue from a customer is only correlated to…revenue from a customer.

FF programs were always meant to be commodity based: reward those customers who spend the most. But two generations of incompetent airline execs were simply employing outmoded tactics to achieve their goal.

So what you call romance, I call airline executive incompetence. Incompetence that worked out in mile grinders’ favor, to be sure. But incompetence nonetheless.

And it’s kind of hard to berate execs for trying to be rational and competent.

When I read VTFW today, I had to check to see that it wasn't April Fools' Day. One of the most cynical posts I've seen from any travel blogger. For the proudly self-proclaimed author of the phrase "SkyPesos", a blogger who regularly pushes the viewpoint that the best use of Delta miles is generally on carriers other than Delta, and someone who rarely seems to write about actually flying on Delta to talk about the romance and loyalty of FF programs, but Delta's in particular, seemed ridiculous. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, I have no particular love for Delta, but I don't think their decision to move FF programs in a different direction is a bad business practice on its face--perhaps it will work, perhaps it won't, but it's not an irrational approach to try.

If, as has been speculated, Delta's reluctance to go all the way and make redemptions revenue based as well arises from Amex's demand that their $675 million investment in SkyMiles not be diminished by taking that step, then the old phrase, "money talks, BS walks" seems applicable here.

And, recently, Gary's been doing a lot of walking. . .

It has felt a bit odd recently, with some of the "coverage", that being one of them. FrequentMiler seems to have taken a pretty even, rational approach, as have others, but certainly not all the bloggers have been that way.

I tend to agree that there isn't anything necessarily illogical or inherently unfair about awarding RDMs based on dollar amount. As for the new tiers, the devil will be in the details as to availability and the new website functionality. Though one-ways at half price would help so one could mix and match with other programs that also have true one-ways.

It will definitely be interesting watching the blog coverage over the next year on this.

Not too long ago at a FTU Brian Kelly from The Points Guy debated Gary Leff from View From The Wing about the relative merits of Delta SkyMiles. Brian took the “pro” position while Gary took the “con.”

It appears that neither of them mentioned the romance of collecting Delta SkyMiles... ;)

In fact, they appear to reduce the frequent flyer program to a crass commercial transaction! :o

Gary's comment that FF programs aren't S&H Green Stamps made me fall over laughing--because that's exactly what they are. A higher tech, contemporary version but Green Stamps nonetheless. My parents collected Green Stamps, and I'm certain that had the internet existed in those days, there would have been forums telling customers how to maximize their Green Stamp benefits. In those pre-wired days, however, if S&H made a change to their program, there may have been isolated outrage amongst customers but certainly no organized customer base to focus that outrage as you can have now with a travel forum or blogger readership.

Well sure. And the whole point of FlyerTalk and the blogs are to help people squeeze every last benefit possible out of frequency programs for as little money and/or effort as possible.

Which is what makes it so ironic when FlyerTalkers and bloggers complain that the airlines are trying to get as much money out of their frequent flyers as possible.

Now, it IS true that I used to have what some might consider an irrational/romantic relationship with UA. But to me, the relationship was perfectly rational: I weighed the benefits of being loyal to UA exclusively against the benefits of nonstops/cheaper tickets/etc., and found that loyalty was a good deal for me. As UA evolved its program that cost-benefit analysis changed and I am no longer loyal to UA as a result.

It seems to me that the FF programs are taking a similar view of frequent flyers: some are worth pursuing and keeping from a cost-benefit analysis basis. Others not so much.

Point being: it's not personal. It's business. And not just business, good business.

As someone who never buys a coach ticket, I think I might be a fan of the new DL program. And I think DL might be a fan of me. Once the dust settles I'll do a CBA and see if they made it enticing enough for me to go to them exclusively, or if i want to remain airline agnostic.

Because at the end of the day it's all a crass commercial transaction...in both directions.

This seems so obvious to me. But I don't see bloggers explaining this reality. Unless I've missed it.

http://boardingarea.com/viewfromthew...nsive-tickets/
kokonutz, should hotels should switch from nights to spend?
http://www.hotelnewsnow.com/articles...Clock-check-in

Are there any tickets on the old DL system where one can earn 75k miles per ticket!? :eek:

Hotels already award points based on spend: Members at the Preferred Guest® level earn two Starpoints for every eligible U.S. dollar spent at over 1000 participating hotels or resorts booked through Starwood Web sites, hotels, call centers and their travel agent or corporate booking tool.

Hotel status is what nights are based on.

valid points

was thinking about airline status requiring spend, although only up to $10K
SQ PPS is more but still only $20K, although $40K initially for solitaire

Some RTW and multi-city tickets, but that was pushing it. A very tiny fraction of all tickets issued, to state it generously. Even under the 2015 DL shell-game, only a tiny fraction of all tickets issued will result in earning 75k miles. That said, 75k DL miles in 2015 won't be worth what 75k DL miles in 2013 were worth -- they'll be worth less, and generosity isn't DL's style -- not today and not next year -- when it comes to earning SkyMiles from flight tickets to be used for flight tickets.. ;)

Right. It seems like it all comes down to the redemption revisions.

DL could make high rev pax winners in the new system. Or they could make everyone losers.

Which is why I, for one, am waiting for the dust to settle before reacting to DL's moves.

Patience isn't alway a virtue.

DL's going to also make high rev pax losers in the new system by hitting us all on the redemption side.

Miles earned from non-flights have to be devalued too -- for DL management to hits its unit targets -- and those miles aren't segregated from miles earned from flights for purposes of being used for mileage tickets.

DL's got no current intention of increasing the availability of award seats at the lowest mileage price level, even for those relatively endangered whales who manage to earn 75k miles/ticket.

If it were otherwise, I'd not be so critical of DL on this matter.

Given the bloggers have credit cards to peddle, the shift to substitute earning more miles from credit cards than from flights is probably in the narrow self-interest of the bloggers that peddle credit cards; however, the pursuit of narrow self-interest in the short-term isn't what drives everyone on every issue -- not even all bloggers.

How do you figure? Especially given that the new charts are published now.

Even if the lowest level remains static in terms of inventory available the other levels could provide a small improvement in the average award costs.

The general post sure, but Randy was only briefed on the final details of the new SkyPeso program in February.

What surprises me the most was that he went to FlyerTalk to post the news right at embargo release time rather than keep it exclusive to his own blogs. (Then again, some people at Delta still think he runs Flyertalk.)

He is still very proud of the community here which he founded.

Plus, linking to the site from here certainly generated a number of clicks/page views which otherwise wouldn't have happened. :-: