tommy525

EVA is in financial trouble and is doing all sorts of things to keep things going. Even considering selling off parts of its business. LIke its training center:

from the EVA pilots forum:

http://nankantraz.org/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=243


Marked contrast from SQ results:

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=12710

coolfish1103

Both CAL and EVA of Taiwan are in financial burden, yet EVA is worse off than CAL in this case due to management issues and routes served. These two Taiwanese carriers based most of their passenger traffic in Taiwan, and then partially from cheaper region of the Southeast Asia where the tickets won't be able to get anywhere near expensive (such as Vietnam).

Unlike SIA, both Taiwanese carriers do not provide superb services to their customers in First and Business in order to attract the top-notch customers in Taiwan. Instead, they try to provide mediocre services to the customers with price competition in mind. We know that there are not that many people who will pay high costs to ride in First and/or Business... but if there's no choice but high costs, then they either have to resort to cheaper airlines such as NWA for a one-stop, or pay for it.

As a result, SIA pulled out of this low yield destination from TPE to LAX, and both Taiwanese companies are suffering from the burden of fuel crisis because the amount of passengers one plane can hold does not change (which can only generate as much assets).

As for SIA, they charge high from each of their top-notch customer, so their profits are high enough to cover the costs from economy class and still net $. With fuel cost rising, they might not gain as much profit from before... but they are definitely not losing money yet (they adjust their routes accordingly and deal with their rules strict). Also, SIA is raising prices for their high tier customers as well as making all the luggages lose weight.

As for EVA, since they have already re-modeled their cabin, I find it hard for them to walk back and re-do everything they can and introduce the superb classes (First) and charge their Premium Laurel/First exceptionally high. Also, I think their new routes to Osaka-Los Angeles, Komatsu and Miyazaki might not generate enough revenues just like the Mumbai one... Osaka cause of the landing costs, Komatsu/Miyazaki cause of the passenger traffic and the rise in costs.

However, I think they have been raising their ticket prices to compensate the costs generated from the fuel (which has gone exceptionally high)... and also kill their frequent flyer program by lowering the benefits and raise the bar. As for the ticket prices, I find it makes no sense for Elite Class cause it's suppose to be a lot cheaper to afford with better seats/leg room... but now...

For CAL, I hope they will introduce something that's superior than EVA... and thus be able to charge more to their customers to cover the fuel cost. By the way, they are currently advertising TPE-NRT route with 3,000 miles as the base mileages instead of the IATA records of 1,330 miles from April 11th to June 20th on certain tickets.

kaichun1216

The truth is many Taiwanese don't even want to pay MORE for flying business/first class even they are RICH. They think it's worthless. Also, CI's major competitor is BR, not CX or SQ. In this case, CI will just introduces the similar cabin products as BR. I remember when BR introduced its Super Frist/Super Business class with PTV and more spacious seat, it only forced CI to install PTV on F/C for its first generation 744s, not remodeled its long-haul fleets. Now, even CI will refit its 744s, it is almost sure that CI will only introduce the same style business class equipment as BR. Therefore, I don't think CI will charge higher than BR on premium cabin.

However, CI has already priced up the business/first class fare in the United States. Business RT fare on LAX/SFO-TPE v.v. is 3,565USD. SEA-TPE v.v. is 4,009USD. First RT fare on LAX/SFO-TPE v.v is 7,265USD.

yensoy

Maybe there is a small detail being overlooked here... the fact that BR and CI don't serve the somewhat important market of CHINA that contributes to why they don't do as well as SQ?

tommy525

China / TAiwan flights may soon become common? And thus provide needed revenue for Taiwanese airlines?

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiw.../15/2003411996

coolfish1103

Most Taiwanese indeed do not want to pay full fares... which includes me (not financially stable to do so). My mom pays full fare, though. I only pay full fares for short routes such as TPE-HKG as it's not that expensive to me. I know the blunt truth is that CI will probably only match up with BR on top of the hardwares, that's why one can only hope that a better product will come by.

I doubt CI will charge more than BR for any premium cabin on the same ground... yet I believe CI may charge similar to BR if they bring their products up-to BR's standard or even better than BR (which safety record may an issue to price then?).

China - Taiwan flight will first be done through charter... I believe that non-Chinese/Taiwanese passengers will not be able to use charter flights until it becomes a regular flight? I know charter flights to other destinations such as Japan allows non-Chinese/Taiwanese... but I believe the ones for China has restrictions (unless you work for a Taiwanese factory?). This might not help the market too much to transfer oversea passengers at first.

tommy525

I believe the charter flights will within a year become scheduled flights and be open to all. That is any foreigner with a visa for China could ride it to China from Taiwan and vice versa.

fly2w

I can't wait. This will save me a lot of time then flying via HK.

crunchie

Yeah, I think that'd be great both for pax and TPE based carriers. The economy in China continues to grow at a staggering rate and not being able to serve key destinations there is a major blocker for US based pax. While a direct from US to China would be preferable to a large number of people, lots of FFs would not mind adding a few extra hours and collecting a couple of thousand miles for the effort, especially if flying in biz or first.

Btw, coolfish, BR used to have superb service. It has certainly deteriorated over the years probably due to reduction in crew size per flight and perhaps other cuts that I'm not aware of. Still, they do offer very good service. Sure, SQ is one of the main benchmarks for the rest of the world but BR was pretty close at one time. The gap's gotten wider but not big enough to ding them purely on service, not yet anyway.

jiaotze

Call me a pessimist, but while everyone thinks that the opening of direct flights between Taiwan and China is the answer to everyone's problems, I am considerably more conservative. Perhaps CI and BR would have enjoyed a huge windfall a decade or so ago when cross-strait flights were first talked about. But not now. Everyone is acting like there won't be any competition for CI and BR.

In fact, the Chinese carriers have expanded considerably over the past decade, and you can bet that China is not going to let the Taiwan airlines hog all the business. Air China is eagerly waiting to start flights. You don't think China Southern and China Eastern won't follow? In addition, the US has even expressed its hopes that American airlines will be allowed to ply cross-straits routes.

To me, BR has never really made an attempt to be an international airline. It is more interested in making a buck by servicing Taiwan tour groups. I rode BR several times many years ago and always got the feeling that it was playing more to tour groups than individual travelers. Of course, few tour groups are going to pay premium fares. (OK, my experience is a little dated, so don't flame me if I'm off the mark on that comment.)

With that said, it's hard for me to imagine that given the financial strength of the Evergreen Group that EVA wouldn't be able to weather the current financial challenges caused by high oil. Maybe EVA will retain premium classes on a few select routes and turn low cost for trans-Asia routes, but I just can't see it going under. Just my two cents.

tommy525

NO I dont think EVA will go under. IT will be sold off to SQ before that happens. But if it keeps having quarters like the 1st quarter when it showed nearly a hundred million USD in losses (versus even Thai Airways showed over sixty million USD profit) then a change of ownership is possible.

I think the TAiwan govt is willing to let small Taiwanese airlines like FAT , UNi and TransAsia sink or swim on their own. But it wont let China Airlines or EVA go under. But theres talk that EVA may be forced to merge with Ci if it continues to show heavy losses.

No doubt TAiwan/China flights will be a profit center to TAiwan and China based airlines. The losers will be Cathay , Dragon and Air Macau because HK/TAiwan flights will surely show a decrease as at least 40pct of present HK/Taiwan flyers continue on to China?

Interesting that the SungShan airport in central Taipei is going to be serving China routes too. Im sure the various airlines will be fighting fiercely for those.

And after a year or two of direct flights. Im sure the USA will muscle in and demand to be allowed to fly the straits too. I would think the US will be allowed to do so and perhaps Japan. Other countries probably not. Although its possible in the long run Cathay and Dragon and Air Macau (all heavily invested by Chinese Airlines) will be allowed these routes too.

coolfish1103

I wouldn't want EVA to merge with CAL... they are just two airlines that operates in Taiwan... but the way they do things are far different from the counterpart.

There's definitely profits for the Taiwan and China based airlines because they no longer need to split the fare with another airline and they can serve passengers all on their own. I think Dragonair and Air Macau will be hit severely in comparison to Cathay as Cathay already got enough international market. Cathay will only get a hard hit if TPE overtakes HKG as a popular hub in the future.

Air traffic in Sungshan will be limited to 16 flights per day at first as there are still domestic traffic within Taiwan that uses Sungshan and the limited space this airport may provide. Most of the traffic should still go to Taoyuan because international traffic will have to transfer here (some domestic traffic to Taitung may-be transferred through Sungshan though!).

It's predictable that Mandarin Airlines, Tranasia Airways, and UNI Air will take routes from Sungshan for sure as they are also based there. Depending on which destinations Sungshan serves, different airlines in China may step in. On the other hand, CAL and EVA may or may not as they currently have no flights operated in Sungshan. However, they can always step in and do aircraft rotations in China if the plane needs to be checked.

The US already expressed interests through economic terms. However, whether or not China will allow it will be another story. It's better not to have so many airlines step in a hub as it will create throat cut prices. What we can look at is that if Hong Kong and Macau based airlines can enter the market or not. If they can enter this market, then we can talk about foreign airlines.

tommy525

A whole lot is going on in the Aviation Industry in TAiwan. Domestic service for the most part is finished, except for a few select routes. The Sungshan and Taichung airports will have a big international role . Taichung has already started with flights to HK. The Sungshan airport can handle wide bodies up to 747. IT just has limited slots. But I think the Sungshan airport will have a lot more slots opened to international flights as domestic is wound down. I THInk the few domestic flights still viable will probably only be Sungshan to Taitung , Sungshan to HUAlien (BIg maybe here as the Taroko train only takes less then 2 hours ), Sungshan to MAKung . The only other viable domestic flights may only be KAohsiung to MAKung and Tainan to Makung as well as Taichung to MAKung. These could be served by the likes of the ATR 72 and other smaller planes. As big capacity wont be needed.

Everyone going to China will want to use Sungshan because its in the heart of TAipei city itself. But slots will be limited.

I think basically Sungshan will once again be a very busy international airport with wide bodies flying in from main cities in China. Smaller Chinese cities may still have to go to TAoyuan to ease the traffic. I DONt think they will let Sungshan serve small cities in China and big cities use TAoyuan. They could do this if they want to keep the big jets out of Sungshan. But Sungshan is capable of handling big jets, even though its runway is minimal. It had 747, dc10 and tristar for years.

silverkris168

Yes, Sungshan was handling 747's as Taipei's international airport prior to Taoyuan opening up in 1979. It's an interesting point to ponder as the domestic air traffic in Taiwan is taking a hit (probably due to excessive cutthroat competition, the advent of the high speed rail line) as it gets reinvented and adjusts to new conditions.

Look at Tokyo's Haneda airport getting back some international destinations (to selected cities in Korea and China) vis-a-vis NRT. That may be the model for Taipei's two airports.

Mr. Roboto

Yes, I'm sure that whatever one reads in an internet forum (under the heading "News and Rumors") written by pilots can be taken as fact.