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-   -   EVA Air New Routes (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/eva-air-infinity-mileagelands/1868666-eva-air-new-routes.html)

flyingeverywhere1 Dec 14, 17 7:31 pm


Originally Posted by hayzel7773 (Post 29174729)
No. IAD was being studied last year though.

Hayzel777 any ideas that there will be any new routes by EVA this coming 2018? There is basically none in 2017...

hayzel7773 Dec 14, 17 9:50 pm


Originally Posted by flyingeverywhere1 (Post 29175644)
Hayzel777 any ideas that there will be any new routes by EVA this coming 2018? There is basically none in 2017...

2017 was a year full of cancellations and reductions because of poor performance on mainland-china/poor Q1/2 showings/lack of deliveries(A333 replacing A332 fleet, 777 replacing returned aircraft+a332 lost). Perhaps, with the super strong Q3 and Q4 showings and the beginning of 787 deliveries, we will see new additions be added.

Another part of the reason why their were no routes was because of the fleet. The 777 cannot be sustained on many routes because of its rather high seat count(and large PE cabin)/not as fuel efficient and the A333 can't make it to places in Europe. The lack of a plane in between(787/A359) essentially left EVA with planes that could only be sent to existing destinations as additional frequencies(hence the failed SEA tack on, the adjustments of the LAX flight, new SFO flight, JFK morning flight, 777 to Ho Chi Minh CIty 2-3x a day, double daily 777 to SIN).

As stated above, the rumors milling around the company are Sydney, Hawaii, Auckland, and many more. Europe/Oceania is currently EVAs focus because of CI's strong Europe performance. They see it as another "N.A. to S.E.A" campaign for them. It was rumored last year that BCN, MAD, and MXP were all on EVA's target list because of visits by high level mgmt. Stockholm/Copenhagen could be another, EVA recently dispatched a team to Copenhagen and held a travel agents event there.

There is one new route next year that is confirmed, and that is TPE-VIE nonstop.

And instead of 1, EVA will be getting 2-4 789s next year, depending upon ALC slots!

east_west Dec 14, 17 10:43 pm


Originally Posted by hayzel7773 (Post 29175991)
2017 was a year full of cancellations and reductions because of poor performance on mainland-china/poor Q1/2 showings/lack of deliveries(A333 replacing A332 fleet, 777 replacing returned aircraft+a332 lost). Perhaps, with the super strong Q3 and Q4 showings and the beginning of 787 deliveries, we will see new additions be added.

Another part of the reason why their were no routes was because of the fleet. The 777 cannot be sustained on many routes because of its rather high seat count(and large PE cabin)/not as fuel efficient and the A333 can't make it to places in Europe. The lack of a plane in between(787/A359) essentially left EVA with planes that could only be sent to existing destinations as additional frequencies(hence the failed SEA tack on, the adjustments of the LAX flight, new SFO flight, JFK morning flight, 777 to Ho Chi Minh CIty 2-3x a day, double daily 777 to SIN).

As stated above, the rumors milling around the company are Sydney, Hawaii, Auckland, and many more. Europe/Oceania is currently EVAs focus because of CI's strong Europe performance. They see it as another "N.A. to S.E.A" campaign for them. It was rumored last year that BCN, MAD, and MXP were all on EVA's target list because of visits by high level mgmt. Stockholm/Copenhagen could be another, EVA recently dispatched a team to Copenhagen and held a travel agents event there.

There is one new route next year that is confirmed, and that is TPE-VIE nonstop.

And instead of 1, EVA will be getting 2-4 789s next year, depending upon ALC slots!

Just curious -- Europe to SE Asia seems dominated by ME3, no? Does BR really expect to compete? TPE has geographical advantages from the US west coast, but definitely not Europe to SE Asia.

Also hard to imagine there is a market for these 2nd tier European cities when there isn't even daily TPE-London service.

hayzel7773 Dec 14, 17 10:52 pm


Originally Posted by east_west (Post 29176117)
Just curious -- Europe to SE Asia seems dominated by ME3, no? Does BR really expect to compete? TPE has geographical advantages from the US west coast, but definitely not Europe to SE Asia.

Also hard to imagine there is a market for these 2nd tier European cities when there isn't even daily TPE-London service.

Europe-TPE has lots of tour group traffic. EVA's TPE-CDG-TPE is timed perfectly just for South East Asia traffic and performs quite well in terms of connections. It is just under study right now, nothing more.
TPE-LON is supposed to go daily next year(according to CI's VP).

jackson112233 Dec 15, 17 2:17 am


Originally Posted by hayzel7773 (Post 29175991)
2017 was a year full of cancellations and reductions because of poor performance on mainland-china/poor Q1/2 showings/lack of deliveries(A333 replacing A332 fleet, 777 replacing returned aircraft+a332 lost). Perhaps, with the super strong Q3 and Q4 showings and the beginning of 787 deliveries, we will see new additions be added.

Another part of the reason why their were no routes was because of the fleet. The 777 cannot be sustained on many routes because of its rather high seat count(and large PE cabin)/not as fuel efficient and the A333 can't make it to places in Europe. The lack of a plane in between(787/A359) essentially left EVA with planes that could only be sent to existing destinations as additional frequencies(hence the failed SEA tack on, the adjustments of the LAX flight, new SFO flight, JFK morning flight, 777 to Ho Chi Minh CIty 2-3x a day, double daily 777 to SIN).

As stated above, the rumors milling around the company are Sydney, Hawaii, Auckland, and many more. Europe/Oceania is currently EVAs focus because of CI's strong Europe performance. They see it as another "N.A. to S.E.A" campaign for them. It was rumored last year that BCN, MAD, and MXP were all on EVA's target list because of visits by high level mgmt. Stockholm/Copenhagen could be another, EVA recently dispatched a team to Copenhagen and held a travel agents event there.

There is one new route next year that is confirmed, and that is TPE-VIE nonstop.

And instead of 1, EVA will be getting 2-4 789s next year, depending upon ALC slots!

Seems like the 789s would be good to try longer thin routes in NA. Wonder why they only ordered 4 of them. Would be interesting to see the configurations for the 787 when they are released!

coolfish1103 Dec 15, 17 4:37 am


Originally Posted by foppishbum (Post 29175029)
MUC has been rumored for a while now. If rumor hold true, it'll be some time in 2018.

Quite certain that there no rights for Germany unless it's Lufthansa starting a route. All rights are used by CI at FRA.

There is also no reason to boost Vienna if Munich is available. EVA is upping Vienna to semi-daily (some via BKK) and Vienna has always been an alternative should Munich been available.

east_west Dec 15, 17 4:48 pm


Originally Posted by jackson112233 (Post 29176529)
Seems like the 789s would be good to try longer thin routes in NA. Wonder why they only ordered 4 of them. Would be interesting to see the configurations for the 787 when they are released!

I'm also curious about plans for the four 787-9s, as BR also has 20 787-10 orders in place plus 6 options.

787-10 should have range for Europe, Asia, Oceania, and SEA/YVR, but probably not elsewhere in NA.

That leaves under-served long/thin routes in NA -- perhaps IAD/DFW/BOS/ATL/SAN? Each 787-9 frame could potentially support 3-4x a week service, so maybe four frames is enough.

username Dec 15, 17 11:20 pm

I guess they over-ordered anticipating connecting traffic for Mainland people - that probably won't happen for a while.

How about India? Can they try India-NA West Coast market?

flyingeverywhere1 Dec 16, 17 1:16 am

I remember they were considering Mumbai/New Delhi launch in 2016 but it never happened... so don't know if it's still on the list..

coolfish1103 Dec 16, 17 4:37 am


Originally Posted by east_west (Post 29179459)
I'm also curious about plans for the four 787-9s, as BR also has 20 787-10 orders in place plus 6 options.

787-10 should have range for Europe, Asia, Oceania, and SEA/YVR, but probably not elsewhere in NA.

That leaves under-served long/thin routes in NA -- perhaps IAD/DFW/BOS/ATL/SAN? Each 787-9 frame could potentially support 3-4x a week service, so maybe four frames is enough.

I thought the 787-9 were for thin routes like Brisbane and Vienna, maybe also start San Jose (which 77W cannot land) or Sydney.

However, looking at recent performances, I believe EVA has problems filling those extra 77Ws K got and they have to adopt them to all routes possible (hence all those increases, and the next one to try is VIE). Those that cannot sustain will be cut (IST), reduced (SEA) or maybe have the 787-9 put them (such as ORD) on stabilizer and see if it works.

username Dec 16, 17 8:41 am


Originally Posted by coolfish1103 (Post 29180697)
I thought the 787-9 were for thin routes like Brisbane and Vienna, maybe also start San Jose (which 77W cannot land) or Sydney.

However, looking at recent performances, I believe EVA has problems filling those extra 77Ws K got and they have to adopt them to all routes possible (hence all those increases, and the next one to try is VIE). Those that cannot sustain will be cut (IST), reduced (SEA) or maybe have the 787-9 put them (such as ORD) on stabilizer and see if it works.

Another word, they are in trouble?

Hopefully they don't get/convert more 77Ws that are 10-across if they can't fill the seats already.

east_west Dec 16, 17 9:25 am


Originally Posted by username (Post 29181146)
Another word, they are in trouble?

Hopefully they don't get/convert more 77Ws that are 10-across if they can't fill the seats already.

Overall Yields/Loads look pretty good (Financial Reports - EVA Air | Global) in 2017, especially last quarter and for cargo. Revenue is up 8.4% from 2016, so unfortunately I suspect the conversions will continue. I imagine there is significant variation across routes and seasons, so it makes sense for them to downgauge 777 routes to 787 (-10s or -9s depending on range requirements).

coolfish1103 Dec 16, 17 12:33 pm


Originally Posted by username (Post 29181146)
Another word, they are in trouble?

Hopefully they don't get/convert more 77Ws that are 10-across if they can't fill the seats already.

Well, filling extra 77Ws on routes is different than adding a seat into a row. You are only adding about ~30 seats to a daily flight (~210 seats) which allows you to sell more cheap seats in comparison to adding 330+ seats per extra flight operated. Plus one doesn't usually add just a flight, it's at least 3-4 weekly. That's totally different operations (extra ground staff, additional catering etc.) and sales (more pax at different targeting hours) needing to be met.

Compare to the ambitions that K had when he was operating EVA, what the current management did was to replace existing aircrafts with the new ones. However, the amount of 77W fleet EVA owns is still quite some, so new routes and/or frequencies to existing destinations are to be expected. I mean when EVA slashes JFK to 10 weekly and SEA back to daily, the added capacity had to go somewhere. As of now it's going to SFO and next year to VIE, so we will see how they do clashing against CI on both routes. The YYZ damage did not even cost their operations to change, so one can see how flexible the current EVA fleet offers. They are still able to add more flights.

Cargo is doing quite well. The fun part is, couple years ago EVA almost dropped cargo to just belly loads.

I think the 787-9s are good additions to the EVA fleet, just not enough. I am unsure what the 787-10 is there for, though. The range it has cannot operate most NA routes (except SEA, YVR) so not all the 77Ws can be replaced. It may help on some of the European routes (AMS), but not sure if EVA needs 20 for just these flights. Yes, the 787-10 can be used on Oceania and regional as well to replace the 333 (which is still quite young for EVA in terms of usage), but that will also clash into 321 operations (which will hurt cause the mainland China operations are not doing so well and that's where majorities of the 321 were originally intended to operate). The 787s will not affect EVA until they arrive and is in operation, so we will see how EVA makes it work.

This year is a pretty good year for most airlines (as long as you don't fuel hedge the wrong way). EVA has finally passed CAL in the Pax revenue department, though the yield (not as important) is not very good. We will see how it goes. The revenue department is closing in to 2012 level in terms of percentage and now both have comparable figures.

hayzel7773 Dec 16, 17 1:05 pm


Originally Posted by username (Post 29181146)
Another word, they are in trouble?

Hopefully they don't get/convert more 77Ws that are 10-across if they can't fill the seats already.

There are currently no plans for 10-across conversions.

jackson112233 Dec 19, 17 2:57 am


Originally Posted by coolfish1103 (Post 29181875)
Well, filling extra 77Ws on routes is different than adding a seat into a row. You are only adding about ~30 seats to a daily flight (~210 seats) which allows you to sell more cheap seats in comparison to adding 330+ seats per extra flight operated. Plus one doesn't usually add just a flight, it's at least 3-4 weekly. That's totally different operations (extra ground staff, additional catering etc.) and sales (more pax at different targeting hours) needing to be met.

Compare to the ambitions that K had when he was operating EVA, what the current management did was to replace existing aircrafts with the new ones. However, the amount of 77W fleet EVA owns is still quite some, so new routes and/or frequencies to existing destinations are to be expected. I mean when EVA slashes JFK to 10 weekly and SEA back to daily, the added capacity had to go somewhere. As of now it's going to SFO and next year to VIE, so we will see how they do clashing against CI on both routes. The YYZ damage did not even cost their operations to change, so one can see how flexible the current EVA fleet offers. They are still able to add more flights.

Cargo is doing quite well. The fun part is, couple years ago EVA almost dropped cargo to just belly loads.

I think the 787-9s are good additions to the EVA fleet, just not enough. I am unsure what the 787-10 is there for, though. The range it has cannot operate most NA routes (except SEA, YVR) so not all the 77Ws can be replaced. It may help on some of the European routes (AMS), but not sure if EVA needs 20 for just these flights. Yes, the 787-10 can be used on Oceania and regional as well to replace the 333 (which is still quite young for EVA in terms of usage), but that will also clash into 321 operations (which will hurt cause the mainland China operations are not doing so well and that's where majorities of the 321 were originally intended to operate). The 787s will not affect EVA until they arrive and is in operation, so we will see how EVA makes it work.

This year is a pretty good year for most airlines (as long as you don't fuel hedge the wrong way). EVA has finally passed CAL in the Pax revenue department, though the yield (not as important) is not very good. We will see how it goes. The revenue department is closing in to 2012 level in terms of percentage and now both have comparable figures.

Are there plans to retire more of the earlier 777s as well? It would make sense if there were options to convert some of the 787-10 to 787-9s. If they do fly the 787-10s to Oceania and Europe, then they would probably have to use two different configs, one regional and one long haul.


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