Panos17

I book flights for my family every summer from IAD to ATH with United (outbound flight mid-June, inbound flight mid-August). Last year I paid about $1.1K for each round-trip ticket. Sounded a lot, but I guess there was much demand after pandemic recovery, especially for the high-demand summer period.
I am now trying to book the same flight again. I've been looking at google flights since late November, but the prices are just ridiculous, with no sign of falling. Even when flexible with dates, the cheapest economy ticket is over $1.5K. Is this a normal thing or are prices expected to fall?

cavitron

All flights to europe are up about as much. Demand seems very high so I don't see this changing any time soon.

Panos17

So the consensus is that the "book ~4 months ahead" rule does not apply this year? i.e. the guidance in all previous years was not to book too early in case some good deals come up, with the 4 months before flight being roughly the sweet spot..

mlin32

Dulles has never been a particularly competitive market in terms of price, as it's a *A hub so there's no incentive for the one or two airlines that serve destinations to offer lower fares, especially given the high demand for TATL.

Panos17

What is *A hub and what is TATL?

bitterproffit

*A Hub: Dulles is a hub for Star Alliance which is an airline alliance with United, Lufthansa, Swiss, etc.

TATL: Trans Atlantic Flights.

To answer your original question, its hard to tell whether flights will drop, but hopefully you are expanding your google searches to all airlines and not just United. Unfortunately, it might involve making a connection in the US and/or Europe to get to your final destination.

Easy for a solo passenger. Tougher for a family.

Another option is looking at other airports in the region. They might have lower prices (especially the New York airports as they have more competition).

Also, look for other destinations in Europe like main hubs and then take cheaper flights from there to ATH.

But I think the demand is going to be strong for TATL flights, so I don't see prices coming down anytime soon.

But keep searching. Good Luck.

mlin32

And to make things even more clear about the fact IAD is a United hub, I believe UA and LH Group (Lufthansa, Swiss, Austrian, LOT) have a joint venture, so they share the revenue and fix the pricing on their routes. So the wiggle room for competition is very small.

Pricing more competitive out of JFK.

Goldorak

you should look at fares on AFKL via CDG or AMS or on BA via LHR. May be better than on *A.

downinit

LAX has good competition on TATL routes, but that has just morphed into collusion at this point. I only wish the fares were 50% higher this year; Y & PE are up at least 100% across the board from what was readily available for last summer. J fares are only up about 50-75%. I have been watching them since September, and nothing has budged in all this time. Miles are completely worthless at this point. The higher dollar is not helping out a bit on airfare, as all the carriers seem to be intent on capitalizing on our relatively strong economy.

Panos17

Thank you all for your replies. I will wait a couple more weeks and see.

Panos17

I just noticed something very weird. The prices for IAD -> ATH -> IAD are about 50% more expensive than ATH -> IAD -> ATH. i.e. the whole date grid for the whole summer in google flights suddenly looks very different when you click on the "double arrow" button in the middle. How does this make sense?

LETTERBOY

IAD-ATH is probably directed at the US market. ATH-IAD is directed at the Greek market. Different markets, different prices.

Palal

Airlines start managing loads more precisely about 3-4 months in advance of the flight period. If there is slow demand, they may offer cheaper prices then, if the planes are filling up normally, they won't. In your case, I'd wait until March to buy, unless you absolutely must go to Athens in June and you're looking specifically at the nonstop. Have you looked at flights from nearby airports to compare prices?


Nothing weird about it.. Greek willingness/ability to pay for a flight to IAD in June is lower than someone from IAD wanting to go to Greece.

Panos17

Makes sense. Yes I am looking at layovers as well, but there's not much difference, they are up significantly compared to last year as well.

Palal

Have you checked tickets from NYC/PHL/... and to other nearby destinations? Of course it depends on your time vs. $$ trade-offs...