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Corona virus and booking upcoming trips in Europe?

Corona virus and booking upcoming trips in Europe?

Old Mar 6, 20, 2:20 am
  #16  
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Originally Posted by KLouis View Post
@BMWMOT: Unless your overall health state is bad, you "only" risk a common cold-like infection.
LOL, you are aware the number of cases outside China has grown by 700% over the last 30 days? If it continues at this rate, we're looking at over 100k infections outside China within a month.

Also, of the 59k or so worldwide cases for which the outcome is known (so either recovered/discharged or died), 6% have died. Furthermore, roughly 15% of infections are serious. They go on for 4-6 weeks, may involve things such acute respiratory distress which requires intensive care etc.

So, KLouis, stating the only risk is a common cold is dangerous and wrong.

I would consider postponing non-essential travel at this point. If you decide to go, BMWMOT, I hope you got excellent overseas health insurance coverage.
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Old Mar 6, 20, 3:07 am
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@Comatose.Captain: You did quote me correctly, but failed in interpreting it. I did say "Unless your overall health state is bad" and being a specialist in transmissible diseases, I firmly believe that this is an absolutely correct statement. Actually, it's travel to disease-endemic countries that turned me to a frequent traveller As for the stats concerning the overall mortality, it varies between <1% and <10% depending on what exactly one is measuring. This varies, unfortunately, from country to country, and numbers of cases etc. simply can't be added to be divided by number of deaths, etc. Matters are much more complicated than that. As for travel, well, just think of the worldwide number of flu cases and the corresponding mortality every single year (I'm not talking about the epidemics!) and, as a consequence, nobody should be travelling in the northern hemisphere during the winter months.

By the way, what on earth does BMWMOT mean in plain English?
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Old Mar 6, 20, 4:24 am
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Originally Posted by KLouis View Post
@Comatose.Captain: You did quote me correctly, but failed in interpreting it. I did say "Unless your overall health state is bad" and being a specialist in transmissible diseases, I firmly believe that this is an absolutely correct statement.
You sound very confident. Considering how little is known about COVID-19, that makes me skeptical.

When you read statements from the WHO and from experts, they seem much less confident. In yesterday's opening remarks, the WHO director summarized
There’s still a lot we don’t know, but every day we’re learning more, and we’re working around the clock to fill in the gaps in our knowledge.

Ultimately, how deadly this virus will be depends not only on the virus itself, but on how we respond to it.

This is a serious disease. It is not deadly to most people, but it can kill.
And hearing you tell a 60 year old who's up for surgery for reasons unknown for us that the worst-case outcome for him is akin to a common cold "unless his overall health state is bad"

First of all, it is hard for laymen to understand what you mean exactly by "overall health state is bad". Second, if I look through the findings of empirical studies of the new coronavirus, there is a sizable number of infected individuals that lands in the ICU or dies without having comorbidities or other high-risk factors.

In fact, among the 534 infections in my home country Germany, it appears the most serious case thus far is that of a young competitive athlete without pre-existing medical conditions. According to several media reports, he is fighting for his life.
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Last edited by Comatose.Captain; Mar 6, 20 at 5:13 am
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Old Mar 6, 20, 6:57 am
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Originally Posted by KLouis View Post
@Comatose.Captain: You did quote me correctly, but failed in interpreting it. I did say "Unless your overall health state is bad" and being a specialist in transmissible diseases, I firmly believe that this is an absolutely correct statement. Actually, it's travel to disease-endemic countries that turned me to a frequent traveller As for the stats concerning the overall mortality, it varies between <1% and <10% depending on what exactly one is measuring. This varies, unfortunately, from country to country, and numbers of cases etc. simply can't be added to be divided by number of deaths, etc. Matters are much more complicated than that. As for travel, well, just think of the worldwide number of flu cases and the corresponding mortality every single year (I'm not talking about the epidemics!) and, as a consequence, nobody should be travelling in the northern hemisphere during the winter months.

By the way, what on earth does BMWMOT mean in plain English?
It goes back to when I first joined Flyertalk and needed a code name. I had a BMW Motorcycle at the time
You seem to have some expertise so I appreciate your input. There is so much information out there with many differing opinions and views, it's hard to know what to believe and do. Travel, don't travel, wear masks, masks don't work etc.
As of yesterday I checked and Hungary has 2 cases and Austria has 29. I am relatively healthy though my surgery is to remove my prostate (probably getting to personal now) I also have to consider my 61 year old wife. Relatively healthy but a cancer survivor.
I know it's our decision and ours alone. Just trying to get as much information as possible. If we go, have a good time and nothing happens, we'd be saying, no problem, what''s all the fuss. If we go and we catch it or worse, it would be the worst decision of our lives.
Right now we are leaning towards going. We'll see. The misses tried to buy hand sanitizer and wipes yesterday. Impossible to find.
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Old Mar 6, 20, 6:23 pm
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@Comatose.Captain, @BMWMOT: I am confident and one of the reasons some people are not is that some of us look at a "certain glass" to be half full while others look at it to be half empty. I stress that I do, personally, accept and abide by all recommendations of pertinent authorities, following a very old piece of (Greek) advice: κάλλιο γαϊδουρόδενε παρά γαϊδουρογύρευε or a stitch in time saves nine. But I also do understand what statistics say, I do understand public health realities, and I also remember the time spent (wasted for some) in numerous WHO committees trying to find the correct wording of recommendations. In the present epidemic, I just wonder why people panic to the extent of staying home and not even going out (see photographs from Rome or Milano), while only a month ago when the seasonal flu was killing many more, none of them worried. Perhaps because TV (and nowadays also social media) were not broadcasting much about it. Here are a few numbers just to show what I mean. The year is 2018 (the last one for which complete numbers are publicly available), the country is Germany, and the disease is seasonal influenza. 1121 registered deaths, of which 2.5% were people under the age of 20! By the way, in 2018 there was no flu epidemic in Germany, it was a "normal" year, everybody went to work, schools were not closed, etc.

Bottom line and I won't say more, I promise: I can offer advice, I am not obliging anyone to take it.
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Old Mar 7, 20, 7:43 am
  #21  
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My greatest fear is getting QUARANTINED.
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Old Mar 7, 20, 8:41 am
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Originally Posted by KLouis View Post
@Comatose.Captain, @BMWMOT: I am confident and one of the reasons some people are not is that some of us look at a "certain glass" to be half full while others look at it to be half empty.
So now this is about being an optimist or a pessimist?

And since you're an optimist, your strong claim
Originally Posted by KLouis View Post
Unless your overall health state is bad, you "only" risk a common cold-like infection.
is justified in response to the question of a 60-year old facing surgery back at home?

Forgive me for not believing for a second your claim:
Originally Posted by KLouis View Post
being a specialist in transmissible diseases, I firmly believe that this is an absolutely correct statement
You know, when you say "risk," people usually don't think about the most typical outcome (which would indeed be an infection roughly as severe as a common cold) but about a particularly negative outcome.
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Old Mar 7, 20, 8:23 pm
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@Comatose.Captain: Obviously, you can believe what you choose to believe! I wish you all the best, in spite of the nickname chosen.
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Old Mar 9, 20, 4:42 am
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It depends on the individual's circumstances.

I have long week-ends and an Easter vacation planned all intra-EU (domestic). No plans to change. As I am flying with AF, I don't foresee being stranded as given their domestic network and frequencies, in case of flight cancellations I would just be rerouted.

I almost never book non-refundable anything (flights, car hire, hotels) anyway.
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Old Mar 10, 20, 10:23 pm
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I usually do a trip to Berlin and Prague in early May, and by this time last year I had booked my flights. This year I'm very much on the fence. My health is generally OK but I am in my 60's (which means heightened risk). A friend in Prague just told me schools, museums, etc have been closed and large gatherings banned. I will wait and if it ends up being not so bad, then I might buy a ticket.

I've another trip to Germany planned for July that I'm already concerned about.

If this keeps up it will the first time since 2005 that I drop below Platinum status (NW/DL). But better than dead or sick in a foreign hospital
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Old Mar 12, 20, 12:26 am
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Originally Posted by nrr View Post
My greatest fear is getting QUARANTINED.
It may be out of our hands at some point.

Coronavirus: Trump suspends travel from Europe to US
US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping new travel restrictions on Europe in a bid to combat the spread of the coronavirus.

In a televised address, he said travel from 26 European countries would be suspended for the next 30 days. But he said the "strong but necessary" restrictions would not apply to the UK, where 460 cases of the virus have now been confirmed. There are 1,135 confirmed cases of the virus across the US, with 38 deaths.

"To keep new cases from entering our shores, we will be suspending all travel from Europe," Mr Trump said from the Oval Office on Wednesday evening. "The new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight," he added. The travel order does not apply to US citizens. -

- A Presidential Proclamation, published shortly after Mr Trump's speech, specified that the ban applies to anyone who has been in the EU's Schengen border-free area within 14 days prior to their arrival in the US. This implies that Ireland is excluded from the ban as it is not one of the 26 Schengen countries. Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania are also EU members without being part of the Schengen area. -
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Old Mar 12, 20, 8:04 am
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China claims the number of new cases has diminished--something they are doing is working. Perhaps the 30 day "ban" a la Trump coupled with more diligent efforts in EU (particularly Italy) could result in reversing the upward trend.
Best left for OMNI: (1)back in December 2019 when China first detected THE virus more diligent efforts of containment were put in place many of today's issues would be non-issues, (2)arithmetic growth rate is manageable, geometric is serious business: 2^10 = 1024, 2^20 = 1,048,576
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Old Mar 12, 20, 9:04 am
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Leaders are needed who can get a bit medieval against the threat where necessary. There are very few who are willing, able, and allowed to do so up front.

Last edited by FlitBen; Mar 12, 20 at 9:22 am
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Old Dec 10, 20, 9:38 am
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Originally Posted by paulsmith1988 View Post
I'm a keen, frequent traveller and have found the Randox Home Testing Kits to be the most effective/ reliable. So I thought I'd share my satisfaction and also a link to the kit itself.

Not only that, but I've found a discount code that gives 30% off per kit ordered. By far the cheapest on the market and most effective!

Code: BWRC19

Safe travels!
You should note that these home kits are usually not accepted for international travel purposes.
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Old Dec 17, 20, 4:31 pm
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FYI these tests are airline approved: https://empowerdxlab.com/nasal-test/#faq
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