You have no justifiable reason to be miffed. EK is looking to maximize $ for its F seats, not upgrades from C using miles. If they offered these seats as miles upgrades (2 months in advance), people would be less likely to actually buy F tickets for $.

No one can tell you the chances, especially not this much in advance. Once you get to 1 week / a few days before the flight, the picture will be much clearer.

[QUOTE=NYC1;35813209]You have no justifiable reason to be miffed. EK is looking to maximize $ for its F seats, not upgrades from C using miles. If they offered these seats as miles upgrades (2 months in advance), people would be less likely to actually buy F tickets for $.


You obviously did not read my post - the DXB/LGW leg was upgraded with miles at the time of booking ( in March\) so your argument is pointless. Also it is J not C in EK speak!

He did read your post... LGW-DXB is not a premium route, so upgrades will be made available earlier. There are lots of flights per day from LON to DXB.

DXB--SYD has fewer flights, so fewer seats will be made available for upgrades.

Actually SYD/DXB has three flights a day - exactly the same as DXB/LGW which is already upgraded.

I did read it, unfortunately, but will "obviously" not be reading your posts going forward.

I said LON as in the city... There are 12 flights per day.

The issue is that J to F upgrades ex SYD are (notoriously?) difficult to get. There are several posts on the EK forum which tell us about that.
As also mentioned by DYKWIA, LGW is a completely different proposition, it is not really that much of a 'premium' route (LHR is) and I have never struggled to get an upgrade there (in either direction). So, as mentioned by others, don't try to draw to many parallels between those two stations.
Impossible to predict your chances. Do not count on auto upgrade, it is unreliable. if they make more seats available, it will most likely be in the last 2 or 3 days. Otherwise try at the airport, although you will then not be able to get the 'though upgrade' mileage rate.

Nope - didn’t think it was worth it without access to the F lounge (I had several hours to kill at DXB so that would have tipped the balance).

j to f gives access to f lounge of course

that was certainly always my understanding and experience, so was very surprised to be told otherwise!

whoever said is wrong

Their willingness to clear an upgrade is directly related (inversely) to their belief that they can sell the seat for cash. That varies significantly by route, but also by how far in advance the flight is. And they have lots of historical data on ticket purchase patterns by which to gauge that likelihood. Presumably they already found 4 people willing to buy the seat to SYD, and today, they think they will find more. If they don’t, they’ll open the seat(s) for rewards and upgrades.