Op-Up “Choose Your Own Adventure” !
Oct 16, 2018, 4:31 am
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Somewhere
Programs: AS MVP, EK Silver, Bonvoy Plat
Posts: 921
Op-Up “Choose Your Own Adventure” !
In the spirit of the old children’s “Choose Your Own Adventure” books I ask you to help me choose what you’d do in the following (real) situation:
I’m booked into J Saver on 26-Oct using a denied boarding comp certificate, which books into J inventory and is fully flexible but is definitely “Saver.” The flight appears oversold in J.
I want to upgrade to F and intended to using miles but there is no Z availability right now, so I was planning to wait till check-in or at the airport/onboard. It is supposedly restricted to check-in upgrade only but that hasn’t been tested. The loads are:
26-Oct F4 A4 J0 C0 I0 O0 P0 Y9 E9 R9 W9 M9 B9 U9 K9 H0 Q9 L9 T9 V8 X9
Should I-
A: Wait till OLCI for an upgrade deal?
B: Pass on an upgrade offer and hope for an op-up?
C: Proactively volunteer for (another) IDB certificate at check in, and just fly the next day, perhaps with a miles upgrade?
D: Retain “control” over the situation and change to a flight with plenty of F and J availability, since the goal is to fly F.
Obviously we’re 1.5 weeks out so things could change, but imagine it didn’t. Any insight into how this might play would be appreciated. I know it’s a very strange ticket and we’ll learn a lot about EK handles these as well.
I’m booked into J Saver on 26-Oct using a denied boarding comp certificate, which books into J inventory and is fully flexible but is definitely “Saver.” The flight appears oversold in J.
I want to upgrade to F and intended to using miles but there is no Z availability right now, so I was planning to wait till check-in or at the airport/onboard. It is supposedly restricted to check-in upgrade only but that hasn’t been tested. The loads are:
26-Oct F4 A4 J0 C0 I0 O0 P0 Y9 E9 R9 W9 M9 B9 U9 K9 H0 Q9 L9 T9 V8 X9
Should I-
A: Wait till OLCI for an upgrade deal?
B: Pass on an upgrade offer and hope for an op-up?
C: Proactively volunteer for (another) IDB certificate at check in, and just fly the next day, perhaps with a miles upgrade?
D: Retain “control” over the situation and change to a flight with plenty of F and J availability, since the goal is to fly F.
Obviously we’re 1.5 weeks out so things could change, but imagine it didn’t. Any insight into how this might play would be appreciated. I know it’s a very strange ticket and we’ll learn a lot about EK handles these as well.
Oct 16, 2018, 4:55 am
#2
Moderator: Emirates Skywards and Qatar Airways Privilege Club
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: 12R/30L
Programs: EK Gold|EY Gold|Bonvoy Ambassador| IHG Plat|HHonors Diamond
Posts: 2,818
You are basing this on an assumption that you are eligible for an op-up and / or a miles upgrade on the the ticket type you have or is this confirmed/tried before?
Oct 16, 2018, 5:02 am
#3
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Somewhere
Programs: AS MVP, EK Silver, Bonvoy Plat
Posts: 921
Oct 16, 2018, 5:19 am
#4
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Economy, mostly :(
Programs: Skywards Gold
Posts: 7,801
1. I'd wager that EK use fare bucket to determine the fare type for op-up calculation, i.e. you might appear as Flex Plus in their op-up algo (we think it takes the specific fare bucket into account as well, but only as a tie breaker further down the line in the algorithm)
2. Call once OLCI opens, there might be an option for miles upgrade, even if EK and EF say Z0, happened to me flying to FLL in August (see The ultimate EK Upgrade battle - follow live for next 60 hours!)
3. Do not, ever, count on an op-up. If they happen great, but if you hope or rely on them they almost certainly don't, it's all because of Murphy
Champagne bar on the 27th then?
ETA: volunteering for IDB doesn't mean you'll get it, they'll op-up and the flight will go out with all pax onboard.
2. Call once OLCI opens, there might be an option for miles upgrade, even if EK and EF say Z0, happened to me flying to FLL in August (see The ultimate EK Upgrade battle - follow live for next 60 hours!)
3. Do not, ever, count on an op-up. If they happen great, but if you hope or rely on them they almost certainly don't, it's all because of Murphy
Champagne bar on the 27th then?
ETA: volunteering for IDB doesn't mean you'll get it, they'll op-up and the flight will go out with all pax onboard.
Oct 16, 2018, 12:41 pm
#5
Ambassador, Emirates
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: LGW / AMS / CPT
Programs: SA KL BA EK
Posts: 4,269
In the spirit of the old children’s “Choose Your Own Adventure” books I ask you to help me choose what you’d do in the following (real) situation:
I’m booked into J Saver on 26-Oct using a denied boarding comp certificate, which books into J inventory and is fully flexible but is definitely “Saver.” The flight appears oversold in J.
I want to upgrade to F and intended to using miles but there is no Z availability right now, so I was planning to wait till check-in or at the airport/onboard. It is supposedly restricted to check-in upgrade only but that hasn’t been tested. The loads are:
26-Oct F4 A4 J0 C0 I0 O0 P0 Y9 E9 R9 W9 M9 B9 U9 K9 H0 Q9 L9 T9 V8 X9
Should I-
A: Wait till OLCI for an upgrade deal?
B: Pass on an upgrade offer and hope for an op-up?
C: Proactively volunteer for (another) IDB certificate at check in, and just fly the next day, perhaps with a miles upgrade?
D: Retain “control” over the situation and change to a flight with plenty of F and J availability, since the goal is to fly F.
Obviously we’re 1.5 weeks out so things could change, but imagine it didn’t. Any insight into how this might play would be appreciated. I know it’s a very strange ticket and we’ll learn a lot about EK handles these as well.
I’m booked into J Saver on 26-Oct using a denied boarding comp certificate, which books into J inventory and is fully flexible but is definitely “Saver.” The flight appears oversold in J.
I want to upgrade to F and intended to using miles but there is no Z availability right now, so I was planning to wait till check-in or at the airport/onboard. It is supposedly restricted to check-in upgrade only but that hasn’t been tested. The loads are:
26-Oct F4 A4 J0 C0 I0 O0 P0 Y9 E9 R9 W9 M9 B9 U9 K9 H0 Q9 L9 T9 V8 X9
Should I-
A: Wait till OLCI for an upgrade deal?
B: Pass on an upgrade offer and hope for an op-up?
C: Proactively volunteer for (another) IDB certificate at check in, and just fly the next day, perhaps with a miles upgrade?
D: Retain “control” over the situation and change to a flight with plenty of F and J availability, since the goal is to fly F.
Obviously we’re 1.5 weeks out so things could change, but imagine it didn’t. Any insight into how this might play would be appreciated. I know it’s a very strange ticket and we’ll learn a lot about EK handles these as well.
My 2p worth. Let us know what you chose and how it pans out. All of us are waiting for this now!
Oct 16, 2018, 3:04 pm
#6
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Somewhere
Programs: AS MVP, EK Silver, Bonvoy Plat
Posts: 921
1. I'd wager that EK use fare bucket to determine the fare type for op-up calculation, i.e. you might appear as Flex Plus in their op-up algo (we think it takes the specific fare bucket into account as well, but only as a tie breaker further down the line in the algorithm)
2. Call once OLCI opens, there might be an option for miles upgrade, even if EK and EF say Z0, happened to me flying to FLL in August (see The ultimate EK Upgrade battle - follow live for next 60 hours!)
3. Do not, ever, count on an op-up. If they happen great, but if you hope or rely on them they almost certainly don't, it's all because of Murphy
2. Call once OLCI opens, there might be an option for miles upgrade, even if EK and EF say Z0, happened to me flying to FLL in August (see The ultimate EK Upgrade battle - follow live for next 60 hours!)
3. Do not, ever, count on an op-up. If they happen great, but if you hope or rely on them they almost certainly don't, it's all because of Murphy
Assuming you have flexibility (and taking as read that flying F is REALLY important in this instance): take Option D. Even if there is no Z availability, you should be able to get a space available on board upgrade. The phrase ' a flight with plenty of F and J availability' is crucial here: there still must be empty F seats when you get on board.....
My 2p worth. Let us know what you chose and how it pans out. All of us are waiting for this now!
My 2p worth. Let us know what you chose and how it pans out. All of us are waiting for this now!
Action Plan:
- Wait till OLCI for this flight at T-48, see what happens and if it's still oversold, and if unsuccessful at getting upgraded for the scheduled flight...
- Change to the day before if loads are more open, I might be able to confirm the F seat at that moment. And, if that fails because the previous day flight is looking bad due to other upgraders, etc...
- Go all-in and just show up at the airport for the originally scheduled flight, see where I am on the list... and push to the next day if needed. I'm sure I won't be the favorite customer of the day but it sure is interesting! It really shouldn't get to this point though.
This will be super interesting as we might get to verify some of the conjecture about their op-up algorithm. I'm also Gold so that might twist things a bit.
Oct 22, 2018, 11:18 am
#11
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Somewhere
Programs: AS MVP, EK Silver, Bonvoy Plat
Posts: 921
J6, but Z availability is open! (got a text from EK). F is 4 and seatmap is unchanged from Saturday.
Pulled the trigger! Now sitting in 3K! I've never seen Z availability close to departure on this route - I always check this week's departures daily to discern a pattern. Does EK think it's still oversold?
Cue scenes of unicorns and pixie dust and Dom overindulgence ...
...
Alright, but here's the twist... I upgraded just to find out what would happen.
I now have to change my dates as something has come up that's preventing me from traveling Friday :-/ Looks like the 07 Opus One is still on board in a couple weeks.
Thanks for following
It was fun and educational.
Pulled the trigger! Now sitting in 3K! I've never seen Z availability close to departure on this route - I always check this week's departures daily to discern a pattern. Does EK think it's still oversold?
Cue scenes of unicorns and pixie dust and Dom overindulgence ...
...
Alright, but here's the twist... I upgraded just to find out what would happen.
I now have to change my dates as something has come up that's preventing me from traveling Friday :-/ Looks like the 07 Opus One is still on board in a couple weeks.
Thanks for following
It was fun and educational.
Last edited by Metanoia; Oct 22, 2018 at 11:51 am
Oct 22, 2018, 1:59 pm
#12
Ambassador, Emirates
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: LGW / AMS / CPT
Programs: SA KL BA EK
Posts: 4,269
J6, but Z availability is open! (got a text from EK). F is 4 and seatmap is unchanged from Saturday.
Pulled the trigger! Now sitting in 3K! I've never seen Z availability close to departure on this route - I always check this week's departures daily to discern a pattern. Does EK think it's still oversold?
Cue scenes of unicorns and pixie dust and Dom overindulgence ...
...
Alright, but here's the twist... I upgraded just to find out what would happen.
I now have to change my dates as something has come up that's preventing me from traveling Friday :-/ Looks like the 07 Opus One is still on board in a couple weeks.
Thanks for following It was fun and educational.
Pulled the trigger! Now sitting in 3K! I've never seen Z availability close to departure on this route - I always check this week's departures daily to discern a pattern. Does EK think it's still oversold?
Cue scenes of unicorns and pixie dust and Dom overindulgence ...
...
Alright, but here's the twist... I upgraded just to find out what would happen.
I now have to change my dates as something has come up that's preventing me from traveling Friday :-/ Looks like the 07 Opus One is still on board in a couple weeks.
Thanks for following
It was fun and educational.
Oct 22, 2018, 3:11 pm
#13
Original Poster
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Somewhere
Programs: AS MVP, EK Silver, Bonvoy Plat
Posts: 921