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-   -   Is Emirates a financial scam? (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/emirates-skywards/1627541-emirates-financial-scam.html)

Kiwi Flyer Mar 7, 2015 3:03 pm


Originally Posted by edy4eva (Post 24468546)
That's because according to the logic of the orchestra, no one in their right mind would pay extra to fly an extra stop, having to stop via somewhere, oh like the Budapest in the middle of the desert.

But wait, how large is NZ<->EU traffic is exactly? And why the US3 (non of which fly to NZ) are suddenly so reliant on that 'long and thin' route for their revenue? :rolleyes:

And it's not like EK are the sole player to/from New Zealand, TG, SQ and CX (as well as CZ, CI, KE, MH and LA - and soon CA) do it too with onward connections to Europe bypassing the centre of the universe ATL.

For many places in Europe that aren't hubs there are the same number of transfers on EK than on other airlines due to direct flights from/to DXB. And has the benefit of seamless connection instead of airline (and sometimes terminal) changes.

Dieuwer Mar 8, 2015 2:19 pm

Best defense is offense: maybe it is time for Emirates to accuse the Big-3 US airlines of TATL collusion and receiving illegal government handouts too.
Perhaps make some noises about Boeing too: "Euro is so low now, maybe we should consider Airbusses exclusively!" lol

NOIR Mar 8, 2015 3:17 pm

What good are exclusive Airbus purchases if you can't expand further in the States? A split order would be best to keep the States, and Europeans both happy.

If EK manages to clear this issue in the States once, and for all it will actually work in they're favor with the rest of the world. How can Canada after that use subsidies as an excuse if the States formally says everything seems legitimate.

What's important now is what's going to pan out in the next two weeks when Tim Clark goes to Washington to settle this matter with the movers, and shackers who have control of what comes next. I'm sure EK's legal team, plus it's leaders are working on a plan as we speak. I'm sure they're not going to arrive empty handed. Now the real politics will kick in, there's more to this now than just aviation.

Xlr Mar 8, 2015 8:10 pm

Posting aboard a New York EK flight. I just realized Emirates has a perverse incentive here - if they play their cards right, they can get QR (and maybe EY) into trouble with the US authorities, giving themselves an advantage over their competitors in the Gulf.

At the same time, getting the all clear (from the US) gives EK significant leverage in expansions to Canada and other countries.

eternaltransit Mar 8, 2015 8:41 pm


Originally Posted by dieuwer2 (Post 24474950)
Best defense is offense: maybe it is time for Emirates to accuse the Big-3 US airlines of TATL collusion and receiving illegal government handouts too.
Perhaps make some noises about Boeing too: "Euro is so low now, maybe we should consider Airbusses exclusively!" lol

Ah, but the TATL collusion is completely sanctioned by anti-trust immunity on both sides of the Atlantic, and therefore is perfectly legitimate :D And their handouts are not technically ongoing transfers to prop up non-going concerns which would collapse without them, and in any case are not quantifiable, and therefore are also perfectly fine :D

eternaltransit Mar 8, 2015 8:45 pm


Originally Posted by Xlr (Post 24476256)
Posting aboard a New York EK flight. I just realized Emirates has a perverse incentive here - if they play their cards right, they can get QR (and maybe EY) into trouble with the US authorities, giving themselves an advantage over their competitors in the Gulf.

At the same time, getting the all clear (from the US) gives EK significant leverage in expansions to Canada and other countries.

Not sure if the incentive is perverse at all - given inter-Gulf rivalry, especially Abu Dhabi and Dubai rivalry, this is an absolutely perfect time for EK get one over the other two airlines, with no face lost by anyone in the Middle East (as it would of course be unacceptable locally in any other circumstance for anyone in Dubai to rock the boat with Qatar and Abu Dhabi by complaining about their cash injections to their airlines).

I suspect that this has already been discussed at EK HQ though :D

I think it would be more accurate to say that it would be gloriously ironic if the major target of this lobbying effort (clearly Emirates, given the amount of time and space in the report and media coverage to Dubai and associating EK with the other two carriers, along with repeated references to the MXP-JFK route), actually came out ahead by being seen to be a commercially legitimate carrier (if the benchmark for legitimate is a US network carrier or EU legacy), using the same strategy the report authors used - aka guilt by association!

Dieuwer Mar 8, 2015 9:41 pm


Originally Posted by eternaltransit (Post 24476375)
Ah, but the TATL collusion is completely sanctioned by anti-trust immunity on both sides of the Atlantic, and therefore is perfectly legitimate :D And their handouts are not technically ongoing transfers to prop up non-going concerns which would collapse without them, and in any case are not quantifiable, and therefore are also perfectly fine :D

Ah, but the MENA Subsidies are completely sanctioned by government immunity on both sides of the Gulf, and therefore are perfectly legitimate :D
And their handouts are not technically ongoing transfers to prop up non-going concerns which would collapse without them, and in any case are not quantifiable, and therefore are also perfectly fine :D

CaptainEKAirbus Mar 8, 2015 10:42 pm


Originally Posted by Xlr (Post 24476256)
Posting aboard a New York EK flight. I just realized Emirates has a perverse incentive here - if they play their cards right, they can get QR (and maybe EY) into trouble with the US authorities, giving themselves an advantage over their competitors in the Gulf.

At the same time, getting the all clear (from the US) gives EK significant leverage in expansions to Canada and other countries.

I'd think quite the opposite would be true. The UAE/US bilateral encompass both EK and EY, so if EK tries to be gain an advantage over EY by condemning EY of 'subsidies', it won't matter, as one of the UAE airlines is still competing unfairly with 'government subsidies' according to the US3, and thus wouldn't improve the situation at all.

edy4eva Mar 8, 2015 11:16 pm


Originally Posted by dieuwer2 (Post 24476549)
Ah, but the MENA Subsidies are completely sanctioned by government immunity on both sides of the Gulf, and therefore are perfectly legitimate :D
And their handouts are not technically ongoing transfers to prop up non-going concerns which would collapse without them, and in any case are not quantifiable, and therefore are also perfectly fine :D

:confused: That includes a group of at least 20 airlines....

edy4eva Mar 8, 2015 11:20 pm


Originally Posted by Kiwi Flyer (Post 24471288)
For many places in Europe that aren't hubs there are the same number of transfers on EK than on other airlines due to direct flights from/to DXB. And has the benefit of seamless connection instead of airline (and sometimes terminal) changes.

:) my reply was tongue in cheek at the US3 orchestra.

TopGunner Mar 8, 2015 11:36 pm


Originally Posted by eternaltransit (Post 24476390)
Not sure if the incentive is perverse at all - given inter-Gulf rivalry, especially Abu Dhabi and Dubai rivalry, this is an absolutely perfect time for EK get one over the other two airlines, with no face lost by anyone in the Middle East (as it would of course be unacceptable locally in any other circumstance for anyone in Dubai to rock the boat with Qatar and Abu Dhabi by complaining about their cash injections to their airlines).

I suspect that this has already been discussed at EK HQ though :D

I think it would be more accurate to say that it would be gloriously ironic if the major target of this lobbying effort (clearly Emirates, given the amount of time and space in the report and media coverage to Dubai and associating EK with the other two carriers, along with repeated references to the MXP-JFK route), actually came out ahead by being seen to be a commercially legitimate carrier (if the benchmark for legitimate is a US network carrier or EU legacy), using the same strategy the report authors used - aka guilt by association!

This may be a play against QR, but never EY. If I'm not mistaken, the UAE true rulers are in Abu Dhabi, while Dubai has its autonomy the real power is in AUH, backed by oil. This was further confirmed during the GFC, when Dubai was bailed out by Abu Dhabi and for a while AUH wanted EK as collateral for its financial support. No way Dubai pokes AUH in the eye over this, their ultimate owners would risk losing the Emirate in any kind of battle started over airlines.

Even that all aside, I still think EK aligns with its Gulf brethren, collectively they have unprecedented influence by being both state instrumentalities and strategic economic infrastructure. The buying spree EY and QR or their related entities have undertaken of some interesting assets in influential places means they have a lot of friends that the US will not want to upset because the govt decides to act at the behest of the US3. Qatar is home of the 5th Fleet, and what Commerce dept official wants to tell DoD and State that they have soured key relationships in the Gulf?

While A380s are what EK is associated with, but I am pretty sure that B777s are the backbone of the EK fleet, and to a great extent EY and QR. So Boeing won't want to see demand for its 777x and 787-9 suffering due to the US3 throwing their toys out the pram.

ZRHMD11 Mar 9, 2015 12:09 am

"Qatar is home of the 5th Fleet"

This is not true; the US 5th Fleet is based in Bahrain.

But in Qatar, the US Air Force has a very important air base, Al Udeid Air Base.

NOIR Mar 9, 2015 12:59 am

http://www.emirates247.com/business/...03-09-1.583582

Let's not forget the United States enjoys a 19 billion USD trade surplus with the UAE.

eternaltransit Mar 9, 2015 1:08 am


Originally Posted by TopGunner (Post 24476821)
This may be a play against QR, but never EY. If I'm not mistaken, the UAE true rulers are in Abu Dhabi, while Dubai has its autonomy the real power is in AUH, backed by oil. This was further confirmed during the GFC, when Dubai was bailed out by Abu Dhabi and for a while AUH wanted EK as collateral for its financial support. No way Dubai pokes AUH in the eye over this, their ultimate owners would risk losing the Emirate in any kind of battle started over airlines.

Of course - there is no way that anything that could upset inter-Emirate relationships publicly (or privately to a certain extent - only if no loss of face on any sides are involved) would be tolerated, given my experience with the ME, I simply mean that, rather, if Tim Clark and Dubai found themselves in a situation where the best possible outcome simply happened to involve EK coming out ahead of its rivals...well...I'm sure that could be spun as Tim Clark (and Dubai) doing the best they could for everyone in the Gulf :D

GUWonder Mar 9, 2015 2:39 am


Originally Posted by TopGunner (Post 24476821)
This may be a play against QR, but never EY. If I'm not mistaken, the UAE true rulers are in Abu Dhabi, while Dubai has its autonomy the real power is in AUH, backed by oil. This was further confirmed during the GFC, when Dubai was bailed out by Abu Dhabi and for a while AUH wanted EK as collateral for its financial support. No way Dubai pokes AUH in the eye over this, their ultimate owners would risk losing the Emirate in any kind of battle started over airlines.

Even that all aside, I still think EK aligns with its Gulf brethren, collectively they have unprecedented influence by being both state instrumentalities and strategic economic infrastructure. The buying spree EY and QR or their related entities have undertaken of some interesting assets in influential places means they have a lot of friends that the US will not want to upset because the govt decides to act at the behest of the US3. Qatar is home of the 5th Fleet, and what Commerce dept official wants to tell DoD and State that they have soured key relationships in the Gulf?

While A380s are what EK is associated with, but I am pretty sure that B777s are the backbone of the EK fleet, and to a great extent EY and QR. So Boeing won't want to see demand for its 777x and 787-9 suffering due to the US3 throwing their toys out the pram.

I am certain that the UAE and Qatar won't credibly threaten to deny the US military bases and other US security/intelligence assets (in their respective country) due to the US3 attacking their carriers. There are other cards that the GCC players will play, but the security cover won't be a negotiating angle from the GCC side. There are more existential elements of concern to the GCC players than EK, EY and QR's expansion; and the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" holds true for these players.


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