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-   -   Is Emirates a financial scam? (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/emirates-skywards/1627541-emirates-financial-scam.html)

xobile Jan 30, 2015 10:37 am

This thread has unfortunately died, but I still wait for the OP, iadphx, to come back with some fact/number based refutations to the numerous quantitative analyses posted here. Somehow I think OP had some homework or a project to do at his analyst job, and continued to play devil's advocate for the sake of having everyone else do his work for him :) It would help explain why OP has not shown up for the past month, perhaps his presentation is over!

jamjaruk Feb 1, 2015 4:39 am

So after 483 posts, we have concluded that Emirates is not a financial scam.

Mind you I almost had a lengthy conversation the other day with my work colleague who said Emirates is financially backed by the government

eternaltransit Feb 1, 2015 5:02 am


Originally Posted by jamjaruk (Post 24271052)
So after 483 posts, we have concluded that Emirates is not a financial scam.

Mind you I almost had a lengthy conversation the other day with my work colleague who said Emirates is financially backed by the government

I think the conclusion is - everyone has their own views and they aren't changing in response to some anonymous internet forum :D

The issue never goes away - just last month on the BA forum there was a multi-page sidetrack about EK and its apparent subsidies...

iahphx Feb 5, 2015 12:41 pm

Breaking news: the 3 major US airlines have gone public with their evidence of massive state subsidies for the Middle Eastern airlines.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/big-u-s-...3?mod=yahoo_hs

I haven't yet seen the report, but I will read it when I get a chance.

As I've been telling the skeptics here, the economics of these airlines make zero sense. There HAS to be subsidy. Apparently the US airlines have found it: tens of billions of dollars. I suspect other nations will react to this report and impose limits on these carriers' operations. They have to.

Dave Noble Feb 5, 2015 12:43 pm

You haven't even read the report yet this is breaking news regarding Emirates?

seems on par with quality of the other allegations in the thread

As an aside, there is a response

Emirates President Tim Clark said in a recent interview that the U.S. airlines’ claims are “outrageous, unsubstantiated (and) incorrect.”


so breaking news - US airlines stamping their feet and crying because there is competition could be equally valid

Fredrik74 Feb 5, 2015 12:44 pm

In your opinion: how high are the ME3 subsidies compared to the American Chapter 11 state subsidies?

iahphx Feb 5, 2015 12:49 pm


Originally Posted by Dave Noble (Post 24297751)
You haven't even read the report yet this is breaking news regarding Emirates?

seems on par with quality of the other allegations in the thread

As an aside, there is a response

Emirates President Tim Clark said in a recent interview that the U.S. airlines’ claims are “outrageous, unsubstantiated (and) incorrect.”


so breaking news - US airlines stamping their feet and crying because there is competition could be equally valid

You haven't read the report and you're attacking it? :)

Of course, you don't have to "believe" the allegations to realize what an important development this is to int'l aviation. If the US airlines say there's more than $40 BILLION in subsidy, there are going to be major repercussions, whether you like it or not.

Dave Noble Feb 5, 2015 12:53 pm


Originally Posted by iahphx (Post 24297793)
You haven't read the report and you're attacking it? :)

Of course, you don't have to "believe" the allegations to realize what an important development this is to int'l aviation. If the US airlines say there's more than $40 BILLION in subsidy, there are going to be major repercussions, whether you like it or not.

No - I am attacking the assertion that the report has anything in it when the person stating "breaking news" has not read it

YuropFlyer Feb 5, 2015 12:58 pm

Aren't those the same US American airlines that cheated themselves out of billions of debt by going chapter 11, some of them more than once?

iahphx Feb 5, 2015 12:58 pm


Originally Posted by Dave Noble (Post 24297820)
No - I am attacking the assertion that the report has anything in it when the person stating "breaking news" has not read it

I can't yet find a copy on the web but just read the allegations reported by the WSJ:
Mr. Smisek said it has taken a couple of years for the airlines “to scour the planet” with forensic accounting to document the three Gulf airlines’ financial records. The U.S. airlines say they have identified government grants, interest-free loans, free land, passenger-fee exemptions, subsidized airport infrastructure and corporate-tax holidays that, they claim, has enabled the Gulf airlines to surmount huge accumulated losses and order huge numbers of new widebody jetliners.

The information “is new…and compelling and clearly shows there has been subsidization of these carriers,” said American’s Mr. Parker.
I've studied and invested in the airline industry for almost 30 years and I've never seen a business model like this work. It CAN'T work -- you need more O/D traffic. There's something "wrong" here. The US airlines claim they've found it. I think it's a good bet they have.

eternaltransit Feb 5, 2015 1:06 pm

It will be interesting to read the report, if and when it gets released/leaked - considering it is clearly forming part of a lobbying effort by 3 mainline legacy carriers. That puts it on a par of veracity as EKs own documents professing not to be the recipient of subsidies. I can't comment as to EY and QR as I am not that familiar with their operations - and they simply don't comment, whereas EK is quite vocal that it doesn't benefit from ongoing subsidies.

Anyway, I too can link an article: here's one where Tim Clark gives his response to the news of this lobbying effort yesterday.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...debate-408691/

Oh well - as a previous poster has said in this very thread, this is nothing new at all in the history of global aviation...companies lobbying governments for protection :D

lighthand Feb 5, 2015 1:11 pm


Originally Posted by iahphx (Post 24297853)
I can't yet find a copy on the web but just read the allegations reported by the WSJ:
Mr. Smisek said it has taken a couple of years for the airlines “to scour the planet” with forensic accounting to document the three Gulf airlines’ financial records. The U.S. airlines say they have identified government grants, interest-free loans, free land, passenger-fee exemptions, subsidized airport infrastructure and corporate-tax holidays that, they claim, has enabled the Gulf airlines to surmount huge accumulated losses and order huge numbers of new widebody jetliners.

The information “is new…and compelling and clearly shows there has been subsidization of these carriers,” said American’s Mr. Parker.
I've studied and invested in the airline industry for almost 30 years and I've never seen a business model like this work. It CAN'T work -- you need more O/D traffic. There's something "wrong" here. The US airlines claim they've found it. I think it's a good bet they have.

I'm actually very interested to see the number breakdown of these financial records. If it's true, it'll make for great entertainment with all the legal battles. If it turns out to be fluff, it'll still make for great entertainment with all the egg-on-face moments.

eternaltransit Feb 5, 2015 1:13 pm


Originally Posted by lighthand (Post 24297946)
I'm actually very interested to see the number breakdown of these financial records. If it's true, it'll make for great entertainment with all the legal battles. If it turns out to be fluff, it'll still make for great entertainment with all the egg-on-face moments.

You mean all the eggs and popcorn that are going to be flying around this thread? :D

Here's another link to show that these meetings took place with Administration officials in late January. 2015 is going to be the year of lobbying!

http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/...ides-industry/

And a random quote from the article for good measure!

Aside from airports, a number of US airlines have emerged as supportive of retaining US open skies policies. In a 26 January letter addressed to US secretary of state John Kerry, secretary Foxx and secretary Pritzker, JetBlue president Robin Hayes expressed his “unwavering support” for what he calls the “indisputably successful aviation policy of open skies”.

JetBlue has codeshare partnerships with Emirates, Etihad and Qatar. Hayes, who becomes JetBlue chief executive later this month, urges the White House officials to “continue to advance our nation’s proven open skies policy”.

He cites an example of how the policy has benefitted JetBlue - Emirates’ new service between Dubai and Boston in March 2014 allowed JetBlue to launch connecting service to Detroit from Boston. “This had formerly been a monopoly market served only by Delta with high average fares,” says Hayes. Fares on the route have fallen 33% since JetBlue’s entry, he adds.
So it may evolve into a fight over Open Skies policy rather than targeting specific companies...

iahphx Feb 5, 2015 3:32 pm

BTW, it's worth noting that Tim Clark says all of Emirates new routes to the USA are profitable. Doug Parker has said AA's new routes to China -- which seem about a zillion times more logical than Emirates' new USA routes -- are NOT yet profitable, and will take at least a couple years to be so (even with now much cheaper fuel).

This is why I say there seems to be something "wrong" with the way Emirates reports their financial results. They make "easy money" in a way that other airlines never do.

Dave Noble Feb 5, 2015 3:34 pm

Because you think what AA is doing is logical and because you think what EK is doing is illogical then it must be the case that something is wrong

vs the people running Emirates perhaps having an idea at how to run an airline


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