Food Inflation
 

We're starting to see inflation in basic food costs really take a bite out of our regular eating spots. At two places where we interact with the owner/operator, they've been apologetic about price increases.

Naturally, this seems worse for the cheaper places where they had smaller margins to begin with and can't absorb the price increases.

It mostly comes back to oil and I wonder how many restaurants are taking the double whammy of fewer customers and higher costs and then giving up the fight?

Rising food costs may have a positive impact in bringing down the portion sizes.

Comparison of todays portion sizes vs 20 years ago

http://www.divinecaroline.com/articl...tion-size--now

Things seem to get watered down rather than smaller, if that makes any sense. For example, the pizza slice is the same size, just with skimpier toppings. Or they replace quality ingredients with worse ones.

I'm not a regular soft drink consumer by US standards. When I like one, I usually like an 8oz bottle. Why does an 8 oz serving cost a lot more than a 12oz serving? And to really change directions, why can't we refill bottles?

Portions of the post that previously appeared in this space has been deleted. I would provide you with a reason why, but doing so would likely be against the TOS.

I have a couple of places I like to go with the family once a week to keep their economy going and for a break from home cooking, but I like eating at home myself.

Being in Texas, the land of trucks and long commutes, some people are getting massacred on their monthly fuel bill as well as their food bill. I know a guy whose monthly gasoline costs are so high that he should park the oversized diesel truck he's underneath on and buy a cheap economy car to drive just to get some cash flow back. $1000 a month on gasoline?

Dollar devaluation is what you see :)

can also depend on the particular ingredient
 

For instance, the California/Oregon summer salmon season was cancelled due to low salmon counts. I discovered at my local grocery store this morning that this has led to wild Alaskan salmon hitting $30.00 per pound, about double what it was a few weeks ago.

I haven't ordered salmon at a restaurant recently, but I'm sure it will hit those portion prices as well.

Bob

ate at daily grill last night, 3 of us, 3 apps , 1 entre and 1 dessert with soft drinks, $66 dollars. wow, its getting nuts out there. i think the prices are going up and portions are getting smaller

Interestingly enough, most convenience stores/gas stations in the US will sell you a cold soft drink for around 1.39$ for 20oz (600ml). Yet in the same store, you can buy a 2L bottle (not cold mind you) for 0.99$. Where's the logic?

Refillable bottles are quite "green" but it's a lot more effort + cost for the beverage companies.

JP

I'm sorry but thats a BS argument. People are responsible for controlling their own eating habits, and if they want to have big portions, and the weight gain that goes with it, then thats up to them. Not to mention that at least one of the photos on that link is photoshopped - the "bigger size" pizza slices are the SAME ones in the 20 years ago pic, but photoshopped to overlay each other and then enlarged.Look at the toppings on each pic, they are the SAME. I find it difficult to give any credit to anyone that can't use facts to prove their argument.

One thing that is absolutely having an impact is the quality of ingredients.When food prices soar, people tend to stop buying more nutritious foods that require prep (like fresh fruits and veggies) in favor of prepackaged commercial trans fat laden foods (like Hot Pockets) that are often cheaper. Obesity in lower income classes is certainly due to a mixture of factors (poor self control being one of them) but cost plays a large role. In order to make ends meet, many lower income households forgo expensive fresh foods in favor of frozen convenience foods, because for 100 dollars they can get enough fresh food to last 4 days or enough crap food to last a week and a half. When the budgets tight, what choice do they really have? It becomes a vicious cycle in a way because then they get accustomed to eating that way, and even if circumstances change, they still seek out junk because its comforting and familiar.

Sorry about the rant, but this subject is a pet peeve.

I fear making my kids nuts while trying to alert them to being cost conscious and health conscious. It is not easy to do both.

Here in Australia, we're seeing massive price inflation of groceries / food commodities(relative to the past decade).

It's not currency related, here.
The AUD$ hit a record high against the USD$ thanks to the resources boom re. China & India and the related commodities boom as richer developing nations move up the food chain.

I still blame a lot on the oil markets and companies.
-> Oil speculation driving up oil and transport prices (fuel is double the price of a decade ago)
-> Much higher transport costs for food as a result.

Much higher interest rates (thanks to the US credit crunch post subprime debacle) for business in Australia has probably forced some businesses to raise prices.

Overall, I've not noticed restaurant price rises here, so it might be a US-centric issue.
Are US farmers stil pushing for increased farm subsidies - even with food price inflation?

On a US level, could commodity price increases be due to the widespread practice of growing corn for ethanol be affecting food prices?

Don't forget about the impact of bio-fuels on the increase in food costs. With oil prices continuing to rise, the demand for bio-fuels is increasing rapidly and they compete for the same resources we use for food.

What I've seen reported in the Financial Times (best paper in the world:)) is that the bio-fuel issue is overblown. I believe it is raising costs slightly for corn, which is amplified for the very poorest among us in North America, but that it isn't sending it skyrocketing.

I'd like to know if this is the case.
It would seem to be the big difference in the US v other countries in relation to factors affecting food commodity prices.

How has ethanol farming impacted on supply of key food commodities, which could affect the food markets?

Though rising fuel prices affect the rich more in $ than the poor in the beginning, food inflation affects everyone and already has proven to be a major political issue around the world.

More so than the oil price, IMO.

Strictly on topic: What items have increased in price, in your day-to-day dining?
Nothing much, here (excluding grocery increases). :)

Our little falafel place has had his price per lb of garbanzo beans go up nearly double. Our pizza place has had flour nearly triple over the last few months. Cheese was also out of sight.

The oil deal is a killer. It all stems from 2003.

Until very recently i worked in the family restaurant.Some of the things that are killing restauranteurs are:
Produce (everything from fruits and veggies to the parsley and kale used for garnish)
flour
Eggs and milk.

These issues are especially hard for the shop owners who arent part of big chains and don't have the ability to get raw materials cheap for buying in bulk.

At the supermarkets at least, I'm seeing locally unseasonal produce go way up in price, but the seasonal stuff staying very reasonable. It's also had an effect on our local Saturday market, as people are willing to pay reasonable money now for locally-produced fruit & veg, so the fresh produce stalls have really improved.

We're also growing more ourselves, although partly for fun, but this seems to be a trend here at the moment. We've got some Eden Project seeds growing into some unusual veg, and a seemingly unending supply of salad leaves. If the tomatoes and peppers are anything like last year, I can't wait!

I'll be interested to see how this gap progresses. Personally, I barely use any oil in cooking, so haven't really seen much of an increase there. Sadly, a lot of the fields near us now are being used for biofuel crops, which is the same, as it's a great spot for organic, arable farming. Can't blame the farmers for that, but I remain solidly unconvinced of the merits of biofuels.

That's an interesting point - oil prices doubling and affecting the cost of imported/transported 'out of season' produce (is that code for African or more likely, non-EU?).

If locally-grown produce is available and fairly priced, it is up to consumers to buy it up and demand more, if they want local farmers to produce more food crops and less biodiesel.

Here's a challenge: compare product & prices at your local fruit shop / growers market vs. your oligopolist grocery chain.
- Is there a noticeable price difference due to local v imported/distance-transported/out-of-season 'stored' produce?

'Out of season' isn't really code, and there's differing degrees of local. You can get a lot of decent food sourced from within 50 miles of where I live, even more if you expand this to the whole of Britain, more for the EU still, more for the world. Much of the really out-of-season stuff we get here is from New Zealand or Argentina - many of the foodstuffs from Africa and the Caribbean aren't exactly available for growing in these colder climes...

Apart from fuel costs (in all senses), you've also got the problem of taste. Strawberries picked halfway across the world and freighted over here, ripening in containers are never going to taste remotely as good as those picked just up the road yesterday.

The easy way to judge, though, is on price and special offer. Our local supermarkets stock local produce a lot of the time, and it's easy to tell when something is in season: it's marked as half-price or BOGOF. This isn't a loss-leader, it's not a special deal with a farming group (their margins are already pared to the bone as it is), it's just that they're easy to get hold of cheaply.

Cheaper, fresher, more sustainable... What more do you want?

(The debate now goes to the impact on countries in the developing world who have made a good living selling food to the West...)

Another aspect is the continually shrinking package. I was grocery shopping last week and noticed the snack cracker aisle was featuring Wheat Thins and Triscuits. They were featured at 2 for $6 bucks, which didn't seem particularly special, and on closer inspection, the box was a new 9oz.

Breyer's ice cream has gone on a similar slimming down in packaging.

I went to get some Edy's No Sugar Added Reduced Fat Vanilla, and it was TINY! 1.5qt!

I looked at Breyer's and it was 1.75 but 2x more expensive, but until tomorrow buy one get one free......

The mere fact that we are discussing fuel costs as the reason for increased food costs is telling. Our culture has gotten so accustomed to having all sorts of food products from faraway lands available at our fingertips 24/7/365. Spoiled rotten, we are. No one is forcing you to eat foods out of season or that could not possibly be grown/raised/caught in your climate. So quit .....ing when you have to pay what the market dictates those foods will cost.

Interestingly, the head of one of the major supermarket chains here (Sainsbury's, who position themselves towards the top end of the market - although price differences these days are marginal) made a statement saying as much - basically that if you eat fresh, seasonal goods, then your shopping bill won't have gone up.

We're also spoiled with indoor plumbing and all kinds of electrical devices. Now don't complain when they go out. After all, you should be walking to the river to get your water and going outside to use the restroom. Anything else is contrived.;)

The key difference being that many of these features vastly increase, rather then decrease efficiency in our use of resources. And often easy to make yet more efficient.

I don't disagree with this to a point but its not like everything you buy in the store can be found locally.And i don't mean exotic produce either - if you don't live in an area where there is a lot of farming, you are forced to buy products like milk, eggs, cheese, flour etc. all from places far enough away that they need to be trucked in. and in winter unless you want to get scurvy, and such, you need to buy produce thats trucked in, even if its just from Florida or Cali.

I'm all for buying locally when you can.Just this week i bought NJ asparagus for 1.59/lb, and it was nice thin stalks, not the huge wood like ones you often see. But the fact is, there are certain things that are a necessity that can only be trucked in.

Well yes, obviously it depends on where you live, too. For example, you can't grow an awful lot of citrus on this island (UK), so much comes from abroad.

And of course, there's differing degrees of local. Spain? Not too bad. South Africa? Quite a lot further...

Just because you have to get your orange juice from slightly further afield doesn't mean you have to insist on strawberries from half the world away in winter - it's not all or nothing...

Minor differences
 

[QUOTE=rhiannonwales;9762870]I don't disagree with this to a point but its not like everything you buy in the store can be found locally.And i don't mean exotic produce either - if you don't live in an area where there is a lot of farming, you are forced to buy products like milk, eggs, cheese, flour etc. all from places far enough away that they need to be trucked in. and in winter unless you want to get scurvy, and such, you need to buy produce thats trucked in, even if its just from Florida or Cali.[QUOTE]

I met with Rep. Pat Williams (D-MT) a number of years ago. A tale from him. He was trying to get another Rep. from NY to vote for the farm bill in the late 1980's. The Rep. from NY asked him "Why should I vote for the farm bill? Everybody I know buys food from the grocery store." I realize that the farm bill in the US is one of the most pork-filled (food stamp ads) and wasteful (ethanol subsidies) bills passed by the Congress but it does provide some good things (Country of origin labeling on food). Do I believe the story, no but I can believe that a person from NY would have this attitude. NY/NJ have always had higher food prices over other areas because of the congestion and lack of local farms. However, NY/NJ incomes are often much higher than the rest of the country as well.

But it's called the Garden State!???

Our family grocery bills have gone up 25% over one year ago because of an increase in prices and the fact that we are eating at home more.

For years my husband and I have had one lunch out per weekend at an average cost of $22.00. The past few months the average cost has gone up to $28.00 and we are doing it less often.

It's not just the cost of the meal, but the cost of driving to get to the restaurant. This weekend we are staying home.

Actually there are a lot of local farms here in NJ - but they are in central (where i live) and southern NJ. Did you know that 2/3 of the worlds consumption of eggplant is grown here in NJ? The problem is that NJ doesn't have good climate for long storage crops - like wheat and potatoes and etc. So we pay more for bulk staples in the market.