Probablility of Comair Bump?
 

Hey Delta experts --

I'm booked on DL5226 on Friday 22nd from DCA-JFK. I'm considering changing it, but would stay with it if I might get a bump.

It's now showing Y6 B6 M0 H0 Q0 K0 L0 U0 T0 according to T&T.

What do y'all think?

I'm thinking about 1.632934% chance of a bump occurring.

The next person to start a Bump Thread should ask mtparadis for the odds. He always seems to have a "wise" comment on bumping. Telling from his reactions, He probably has had some really bad luck trying to snag a bump.
It is very hard to tell if you will get a bump now that they have journey control. Just because they are selling 6 seats doesn't mean squat anymore. You would need an insider to check the loads. I wouldn't count on a bump unless a previous flight is cancelled or the flight is zeroed out.
Best of Luck!
SR

I've actually had very good luck bumping, but an RJ showing Y6 is not very promising since my experience has been they'll normally only oversell by 1 or 2 on the routes I fly.

The OP asked for a "probability" and I have no problem giving one. :)

Should have mentioned -- a little birdie told me actual avail is 1, auth to 6.

Well then that's actually looking better. I personally am a gambling man and would stay on that flight.

Well, don't loose that BIRDY!!!! That Birdy is a great friend and an invaluable tool! Anyway, the JFK-WAS flights are heavily business related flights. You are traveling at the end of a work week, there probably won't be as many people missing their flights home as on Thrusday or Wednesday . . . .
You can always rationalize this stuff though.
SR