Delta system traffic down 1.1% in February

 
Old Mar 7, 03, 8:25 am
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Delta system traffic down 1.1% in February

Delta's press release

Delta is attributing the drop to inclement weather, noting that its completion rate was 1.7% lower than in Feb. 2002. Still, after a 6% increase in January, this doesn't look all that great.
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Old Mar 7, 03, 8:54 am
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For the record:

DL traffic: Down 1.1% (LF= 69%)

NW traffic: Up 1.1% (LF= 73.3%)

AA traffic: Up 0.4% (LF= 68.8%)

UA traffic: Up 0.3% (LF= 70.4%)

CO traffic: Down 6.6% (LF= 68.9%)

SW traffic: Up 6.6% (LF= 62.5%)

AW(HP to purists) traffic: Up 16% (LF= 70.8%)

Airtran traffic: UP 30.9 % (LF= 66.2%)

US traffic: DOWN 15.8% (LF = 64.5%)

I will fill them in as they are publicised. LF = Load factor, how many seats were filled with passengers. To compare apples as well as possible, I am using the airlines' own reported systemwide RPMs and LFs. Relating to AA's not including Eagle, not including Comair & ASA has Delta mainline down 1.2%. CO's numbers also do not include CoEx.

Also notice that AWA started its imaginably priced business fares last spring, so this comparison partially reflects that.

(Thanks keithguy, I had missed AAs release.)

[edited for more information]



[This message has been edited by LexPassenger (edited 03-10-2003).]
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Old Mar 7, 03, 1:02 pm
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Thanks for the info. I didn't realize that AirTrans load factor was that low.

Back in the days of regulated airlines, an airline would make money with a load factor in the high 40s. Recently, it took the high 60s. Now, with no pricing power (bought on both my low coast carriers AND the free flow of information), I would think that the big six would need low to mid 70s to make a profit.

marc
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Old Mar 7, 03, 8:44 pm
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A month ago, the apologists were saying that the monthly numbers were somehow proof that flyers weren't leaving Delta (they rose some tiny bit). A simple comparison showed Delta was lagging year-to-year over EVERYBODY except the bankrupts at that time.

This month they lose to every carrier I have checked so far except CO and US; United is ahead of Delta now.

Let's see how the formula works....high load factor (crowded planes), falling traffic, ultra-high cost structure, high fares, and record financial losses.

Hey, let's tinker with the FF program some more!



[This message has been edited by Justin026 (edited 03-07-2003).]
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Old Mar 7, 03, 9:18 pm
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AA has reported February traffic, systemwide load factor rose 1.2 points.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030303/dam050_1.html

Note that this excludes American Eagle and AmericanConnection, their reported traffic can be found at:
http://www.amrcorp.com/news/march03/04_eagletraffic.htm

Also note that the 1.1 drop is in RPM (Revenue Passenger Miles), the CRAF call ups would have some effect on this.

Delta's actual load factor for February is 67.2%, up 2.3 points from Feb 2002.

[This message has been edited by keithguy (edited 03-07-2003).]
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Old Mar 8, 03, 7:02 pm
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<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by keithguy:
AA has reported February traffic, systemwide load factor rose 1.2 points.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030303/dam050_1.html

Note that this excludes American Eagle and AmericanConnection, their reported traffic can be found at:
http://www.amrcorp.com/news/march03/04_eagletraffic.htm

Also note that the 1.1 drop is in RPM (Revenue Passenger Miles), the CRAF call ups would have some effect on this.

Delta's actual load factor for February is 67.2%, up 2.3 points from Feb 2002.

[This message has been edited by keithguy (edited 03-07-2003).]
</font>

What if Revenue Passager Miles equaled MQM's


that would be interesting!
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Old Mar 8, 03, 9:55 pm
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DL is in decline with the business traveler. Unfortunately, they are filling their aircraft with people not paying their way. This is why they are losing Billions.

DL has decided to become the GREYHOUND of airlines; however, their cost structure is still like that of the superior competitors.

DL is trying to be all things to all people and failing miserably. Their management is totally out of touch with the flying public (both business and leisure) and they continue to piss off the most valued business travler.

Leo and CO. will do everything possible to explain away the reason for the decline; however, this trend will continue and by years end major damage will be done to DL. The Skymiles program needs fixing and in a hurry. Anybody who believes their recent "enchancements" hasn't had an effect are plain STUPID or smoking crack.

As a stockholder of 300 shares, I expect better from my management team and will be asking for resignations on April 25 in NYC.
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Old Mar 10, 03, 6:39 am
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<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Marq:
Thanks for the info. I didn't realize that AirTrans load factor was that low.

Back in the days of regulated airlines, an airline would make money with a load factor in the high 40s. Recently, it took the high 60s. Now, with no pricing power (bought on both my low coast carriers AND the free flow of information), I would think that the big six would need low to mid 70s to make a profit.

marc
</font>

According to Delta's latest earnings statement, their breakeven load factor for 2002 was 79.64%.

[This message has been edited by Kubla (edited 03-10-2003).]
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Old Mar 10, 03, 6:41 am
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Dupe

[This message has been edited by Kubla (edited 03-10-2003).]
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Old Mar 10, 03, 4:30 pm
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I hadn't noticed the breakeven analysis. That is an impossible number. I wonder what would be the breakeven if pilot work rules were changed and or recent pay raises rescinded?

marc
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