Nov 30, 2018, 8:49 am
Last edit by: ryandc99
Link to open 2020 and beyond version of this thread:
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delt...20-beyond.html
My (LoganFlyer's) guide to maximizing your bump chances on Delta:
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/30484249-post1713.html
(The concise version:
1. Use the App to see if more people are looking for seats than there are seats available. As part of the Customer Commitment, gate agents, phone res agents, and tickets agents must tell you if a flight is overbooked if you ask. (They don't need to say by how many seats.)
2. Do everything you can to get on the volunteer list through OLCI or a kiosk at the airport, since some GAs use that list.
3. Talk to the GA as soon as the gate opens up--don't wait for them to make an announcement.
4. Don't be afraid to negotiate with the GA.)
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delt...20-beyond.html
My (LoganFlyer's) guide to maximizing your bump chances on Delta:
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/30484249-post1713.html
(The concise version:
1. Use the App to see if more people are looking for seats than there are seats available. As part of the Customer Commitment, gate agents, phone res agents, and tickets agents must tell you if a flight is overbooked if you ask. (They don't need to say by how many seats.)
2. Do everything you can to get on the volunteer list through OLCI or a kiosk at the airport, since some GAs use that list.
3. Talk to the GA as soon as the gate opens up--don't wait for them to make an announcement.
4. Don't be afraid to negotiate with the GA.)
Compensation: “Bumps” — Voluntary and Involuntary Denied Boarding [2000-2019]
Oct 23, 2016, 10:26 am
#1291
In memoriam, FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2005
Location: PIT
Programs: DM life is over 2MM PM now & NW MillionAir Wyndham Rewards Plat -Hotels.com Silver -Accor Silver
Posts: 15,408
Are you sure it was me?!?!?
Oct 23, 2016, 10:46 am
#1292
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Knoxville, TN
Programs: Delta (diamond), Hilton (diamond)
Posts: 76
I don't think there's much to predict. High-demand routes on popular dates/times is the most controllable factor -- leisure markets on weekends, business markets on Sunday nights, etc.
Most everything else is outside your control (e.g., they do an equipment swap, good/bad weather at the hub impacting connections, traffic on the freeway, lengthy customs lines at hubs with inbound international connections, low vs. high fare markets (e.g., people will no show more $50 tickets than $500 tickets), IRROPS on other/earlier flights filling up later ones, etc.).
If I look at my last 3 bumps, they were all a result of issues that arose within 24 hours of departure. Last one had an earlier flight go south, pushing mine over; one before that had an equipment swap to a substantially smaller plane pushing mine over; and the one before that was just full but had a minor equipment swap losing a handful of seats pushing it over.
Not sure there's a good way to predict for that sort of stuff, it just happens.
Most everything else is outside your control (e.g., they do an equipment swap, good/bad weather at the hub impacting connections, traffic on the freeway, lengthy customs lines at hubs with inbound international connections, low vs. high fare markets (e.g., people will no show more $50 tickets than $500 tickets), IRROPS on other/earlier flights filling up later ones, etc.).
If I look at my last 3 bumps, they were all a result of issues that arose within 24 hours of departure. Last one had an earlier flight go south, pushing mine over; one before that had an equipment swap to a substantially smaller plane pushing mine over; and the one before that was just full but had a minor equipment swap losing a handful of seats pushing it over.
Not sure there's a good way to predict for that sort of stuff, it just happens.
Oct 23, 2016, 11:05 am
#1293
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Bay Area, CA
Programs: UA Plat 2MM; AS MVP Gold 75K
Posts: 35,068
I respectfully disagree with you and the above poster, but I appreciate your input. Yes there are random factors, and not so random factors. You take these into account and you'll see a pattern emerge. We the individual flyer see them as supposedly random events because our individual experiences and thus our sample sizes are very limited.
I have a very large sample size with extensive travel and VDB experience.
I pointed out some of the controllable factors -- peak times and peak days. But a lot of it comes down to understanding the markets and their circumstances.
I am also concerned with the "near miss" numbers and their relevance. They have varying significance depending on the market. For example, a flight over by 2 AUS-ATL will have me more excited than a flight over by 5 JFK-SFO. IME, the AUS-ATL will be more likely to need, given AUS is an origin station and the high no-show factor in JFK.
Oct 23, 2016, 6:04 pm
#1294
Join Date: Dec 2014
Programs: HHonors Gold, Hertz 5*, SPG Gold, AMEX Plat, buys Spirit tickets at the airport ticket counter ;-)
Posts: 498
FWIW, someone who works in yield mgmt at a major airline told me they can and do oversell certain markets on certain days of week, times, etc as they know the no-show factor.
Remember, the airlines know a lot more about the behavior of their customers than anyone else. If the airline can bump some people on cheap fares to take some last minute full-fare business pax and still come out ahead, why not?
Remember, the airlines know a lot more about the behavior of their customers than anyone else. If the airline can bump some people on cheap fares to take some last minute full-fare business pax and still come out ahead, why not?
Oct 24, 2016, 8:51 am
#1295
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Bay Area, CA
Programs: UA Plat 2MM; AS MVP Gold 75K
Posts: 35,068
FWIW, someone who works in yield mgmt at a major airline told me they can and do oversell certain markets on certain days of week, times, etc as they know the no-show factor.
Remember, the airlines know a lot more about the behavior of their customers than anyone else. If the airline can bump some people on cheap fares to take some last minute full-fare business pax and still come out ahead, why not?
Remember, the airlines know a lot more about the behavior of their customers than anyone else. If the airline can bump some people on cheap fares to take some last minute full-fare business pax and still come out ahead, why not?
The old UA used to actually have the info available to the agent. The agent would occasionally make a comment like, the flight is over by 5, but we have a 93% show factor on this one, so I'll probably be OK. But I'll take your name just in case.
Oct 24, 2016, 10:02 am
#1296
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: PIT
Programs: DL MM, UA Global Services, AA Platinum
Posts: 92
I was pretty happy to score $1000 last Wednesday to take the later ATL>SAN flight. From what I was seeing, it looks like the whole day going to SAN was an oversold mess.
Oct 25, 2016, 11:08 am
#1297
Join Date: Nov 2008
Programs: DL PM, MM; Marriott Plat
Posts: 458
Scored a $500 VDB today. It was the first leg of a same day mileage run from west coast to NYC. Showed up at the airport and an agent recognized me as a VDB hunter, got a big smile and said they were oversold and assumed I would volunteer. She never looked at my itinerary as she knew I kept track of options and so forth and did not look at it until after the bump and then had the standard reaction of seeing a MR itinerary. She handed me off to another agent and told him that I would take care of him and would give him my itinerary. He put me in F and J for the trip so have a lieflat seat from SEA to JFK this evening. Only down side is now it is a 1.5 day trip with the night at a JFK area hotel (on Delta's nickle of course). It pays to be nice to the front line agents, I think most of the agents at my home airport recognize me by sight. A sure sign I fly too much.
Had a good month, $2K in vouchers this month.
He put me in F and J for the trip so have a lieflat seat from SEA to JFK this evening. Only down side is now it is a 1.5 day trip with the night at a JFK area hotel (on Delta's nickle of course). It pays to be nice to the front line agents, I think most of the agents at my home airport recognize me by sight. A sure sign I fly too much.Had a good month, $2K in vouchers this month.
Oct 25, 2016, 4:03 pm
#1298
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: IAH / HOU
Programs: UA GS, DL-Plat, Hilton Gold, IHG Platinum, Hyatt Somethingist, Marriott Titanium Lifetime
Posts: 2,853
Late afternoon summer flights departing SLC on regional jets flying to destinations about three hours away are often in need of volunteers due to weight restrictions due to high ambient temperatures. If you can predict the weather you can score big. Last summer I heard offers as high as $1400 when they needed 14 volunteers for a CRJ-900 flight.
Oct 25, 2016, 10:43 pm
#1299
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 3
Hi All,
I've gotten a few bumps of late which, as many if you do, goes to fund elite status runs. The process seems to be a bit of a crap shoot, but I'm trying to develop my own predictive model of bump opportunities. I've read a lot on the subject thanks to various posts and bloggers.
To test and refine the model, I need data. I've looked through most of this forum and it's helpful. But what I'd really like to know are:
- origin
- connection (if any)
- destination
- flight number(s)
- date
- near misses/close bumps (GA announces oversold but it "works out" against the volunteer somehow)
Not compensation amount, I don't need this.
If you'd like to play along, please let me know of opportunities or near misses. Feel free to PM me the data if you don't want to publicize it.
If the model seems to be accurate, I will be happy to share what I learn. Thanks!
I've gotten a few bumps of late which, as many if you do, goes to fund elite status runs. The process seems to be a bit of a crap shoot, but I'm trying to develop my own predictive model of bump opportunities. I've read a lot on the subject thanks to various posts and bloggers.
To test and refine the model, I need data. I've looked through most of this forum and it's helpful. But what I'd really like to know are:
- origin
- connection (if any)
- destination
- flight number(s)
- date
- near misses/close bumps (GA announces oversold but it "works out" against the volunteer somehow)
Not compensation amount, I don't need this.
If you'd like to play along, please let me know of opportunities or near misses. Feel free to PM me the data if you don't want to publicize it.
If the model seems to be accurate, I will be happy to share what I learn. Thanks!
Oct 25, 2016, 10:45 pm
#1300
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 3
Hoping for a VDB the day before thanksgiving. Debating on flying DFW-ATL-MSP-STL or DFW-ATL-CVG-STL.
Oct 26, 2016, 8:33 am
#1301
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: CLE
Programs: UA, AA Plat Pro, DL, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 477
Good luck!
Oct 31, 2016, 9:27 am
#1302
Join Date: Jan 2010
Programs: HHonors Diamond, Delta Plat, National Executive
Posts: 165
After striking out all year, I got two VDBs last week. On Monday, $400 RIC-ATL, for two hour delay. I actually made my connection since next flight was early. The next flight was also oversold, and they were again offering $400, but I passed.
Coming back on Friday, ATL-RIC was oversold by six, with confirmed seat on flight 11 hours later. He started at $700, I knew it would go higher Finally agreed to $1000 (he said that was the new max, instead of $1300). I told him to check other airports, CHO, PHF and ORF for availability. I asked to be put on flight to ORF departing 30 minutes after original flight. He called to get permission and moved me over with $1000. My original flight ended up being delayed over an hour, so by the time I drove back from ORF to RIC, I was only 1 1/4 hours later. Nice Day.
Coming back on Friday, ATL-RIC was oversold by six, with confirmed seat on flight 11 hours later. He started at $700, I knew it would go higher Finally agreed to $1000 (he said that was the new max, instead of $1300). I told him to check other airports, CHO, PHF and ORF for availability. I asked to be put on flight to ORF departing 30 minutes after original flight. He called to get permission and moved me over with $1000. My original flight ended up being delayed over an hour, so by the time I drove back from ORF to RIC, I was only 1 1/4 hours later. Nice Day.
Nov 10, 2016, 3:03 pm
#1303
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Washington, DC, Chapel Hill, NC (RDU)
Programs: DL Plat (won't hit DM again) 2MM (2.5), HH Gold, PC Gold, Hyatt Plat
Posts: 5,626
DTW-SEA DL 1747, Thurs, Nov 10. Pretty sure there was an oversell, got to gate early, checked with agent. She was offering $500 and first flight on Friday -- which worked for me since I don't have to be at a meeting until 12:30 pm Friday. I said, that's not much and she offered $600. I said if you get to $800, I'll take it. Boarded and took 2B. As boarding ended she came on and asked if I would still take the $800. I gathered my things.
$800 voucher, FC tomorrow morning, night at the Westin and meal vouchers for dinner.
I appreciate that she came on the plane to get me and thanked her.
$800 voucher, FC tomorrow morning, night at the Westin and meal vouchers for dinner.
I appreciate that she came on the plane to get me and thanked her.
Nov 11, 2016, 11:26 am
#1304
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: SFO/DTW
Programs: DL PM 0.5MM, Hyatt Globalist, HHonors Gold, SPG Plat, Marriott Gold, Avis PC, National EE, Hertz PC
Posts: 1,988
DTW-SEA DL 1747, Thurs, Nov 10. Pretty sure there was an oversell, got to gate early, checked with agent. She was offering $500 and first flight on Friday -- which worked for me since I don't have to be at a meeting until 12:30 pm Friday. I said, that's not much and she offered $600. I said if you get to $800, I'll take it. Boarded and took 2B. As boarding ended she came on and asked if I would still take the $800. I gathered my things.
$800 voucher, FC tomorrow morning, night at the Westin and meal vouchers for dinner.
I appreciate that she came on the plane to get me and thanked her.
$800 voucher, FC tomorrow morning, night at the Westin and meal vouchers for dinner.
I appreciate that she came on the plane to get me and thanked her.
EDIT - no bumps needed. Next time.
Last edited by kxc262; Nov 11, 2016 at 12:57 pm
Nov 13, 2016, 12:47 am
#1305
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, MM, NR; HH Diamond, Bonvoy LT Gold, Hyatt Explorist, IHG Diamond, others
Posts: 12,159
MSP-SFO first flight Friday morning (9:30) offered $800. (The previous day, I tried to SDC to it and was told my class wasn't available, but there were lots of seats for standby.)
Second flight (11:45) was oversold, but they were only offering $300 and the 5 PM flight, so I declined. (I told them to come get me if they needed me and the price went up to $500.)
Second flight (11:45) was oversold, but they were only offering $300 and the 5 PM flight, so I declined. (I told them to come get me if they needed me and the price went up to $500.)