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Delta Air Lines Pilot Strike Discussion Thread

Delta Air Lines Pilot Strike Discussion Thread

Old Oct 3, 2022, 7:01 am
  #46  
 
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Hi,
I want to begin by saying that I agree that you should be entitled to your opinion. I'm personally ambivalent to labor unions... meaning, I wish they didn't exist and I wish they didn't take some of the tactics they take, but at the same time I understand why they exist, especially in a historical context.
Originally Posted by readywhenyouare
Resigning and seeking better employment is exactly what 88.4% of the US population does if they are unhappy with their job. Union behavior is like constantly going back to a restaurant you hate and demanding they improve the quality of their food/service and at a better price too. The vast majority of the population would simply take their money elsewhere
I want to give a real-life scenario that I'd hope would fit in your model of how things should be. I'm a physician and have a unique skill set, making me difficult to replace. Because my employer was losing a lot of money, they decided to cut salaries, decrease time off/make working rules different from what I had signed up for. For example, we have fewer equipment techs who get the anesthesia machines set up, and that work now falls onto me. I kept going to management and was ignored... my contract kept automatically rolling over, and I kept being promised how next year would be better. I finally quit in August... and guess what? I haven't been replaced, and they're even shorter now, and services are being curtailed because it's not easy to replace my skillset.

So... Delta has something like 13,000 pilots. I can't imagine how one would negotiate contract conditions for that many people. Similar to me, a pilot has a narrow skillset that can't easily be replaced. On top of it, there are onboarding and airline-specific policies. A 737 pilot can't go to work for DL one day and WN the next without additional training. It's not in the airline's interests to have pilot turnover because of the cost of training on top of the typical costs associated with hiring. By working with a labor union, the airline can set one standard and be done with it for a while. Similarly, the system is set up to encourage people to stay around a long time via seniority preferences.

A pushback is related to firing people for issues. While I've been involved on the management side, where we've had difficulty terminating employees for some egregious behavior, the other side is that it's possible that a company doesn't evenly or fairly apply disciplinary measures across 13,000 workers. The union ensures the work rules and scope are addressed fairly.
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Old Oct 3, 2022, 7:09 am
  #47  
 
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Originally Posted by Visconti
I'm not readywhenyouare, but I think I know what he's getting at here.

In my view, if these DL pilots weren't unionized the odds of every pilot walking out is close to zero. While some may for whatever reason, others will remain, if only because they rely on the source of income which can't be easily replaced elsewhere. DL can then try to hire other pilots to fill the openings and hope these "scabs" can bridge the gap until a more permanent labor solution is found. Of course, during these times and given the apparent pilot shortages, such a strategy may not be practical or feasible, which is why I suspect it's a good time to threaten a strike.

Personally, I don't like unions either--as a consumer they drive up my price per unit, inconvenience me and chip away at my piece of the pie as a shareholder. This of course doesn't mean I don't believe in labor's right to form a union, I do. I just view this as cost of doing business, where these DL pilots have an opportunity to leverage some concessions from the C-Suite. It would be irrational not to do so, because if the shoe were on the other foot, you can bet the C-Suite will be squeezing them.
Specific to Delta pilots right now, my understanding is that Delta is already trying to hire/train as many pilots as they can, there just aren't enough. There's already a shortage, so even 25% quitting could bring operations down, because it's not as if Delta can just fly fewer planes and just ride it out. If this were a law firm for example - they could maybe just take fewer clients, their fixed costs would remain, but labor is by far their largest cost. Delta needs planes to move around in specific ways, and is not setup for a large reduction in force, and the resulting extreme reduction in routes or frequency of routes becomes very obvious, very quickly, to the flying public. And those people will be forced to choose a different airline. And given the incredible effort and massive amounts Delta spends to keep flyers "loyal", that would all go down the drain, as loyalty here isn't really loyalty, it's paid for.

As for unions generally, I definitely understand the argument that unions drive up costs. But that's simply how negotiations work. Of course it would be nice for one side of a negotiation if the other side has almost no leverage in the negotiation (i.e. a salary negotiation for a single pilot). And those increased salaries drive up costs. Of course, it drives up costs a bit more than the increase in salary because there are these middlemen on both sides that are paid specifically to negotiate this. But that's already how almost all other significant negotiations work. There are lawyers on both sides negotiating, and someone has to pay them.
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Last edited by jetsfan92588; Oct 3, 2022 at 7:18 am
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Old Oct 3, 2022, 7:16 am
  #48  
 
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Originally Posted by readywhenyouare
The airline industry is cyclical. For me, I'd rather have a steady and predictable salary throughout my career than these peaks and valleys. As it is now, you can expect to be paid like royalty during the good times and in the bad times you'll be lucky to not be furloughed for years.
According to Delta's 2Q2022 quarterly filing, all salaries account for 24% of their operating expenses. The salaries were just shy of $3B and were up 4% from 2019, or $108M. In contrast, fuel was $3.2B, up $932M from 2019.

Within a degree of reason, there's no salary low enough to create a steady state where you won't be laid off. The airline will eventually cancel the flight if they can't make money on it... and with the cancellation comes layoffs. Costs are up 18%, while passenger and cargo revenue are down 3%. Salaries alone can't overcome adverse economic conditions.
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Old Oct 3, 2022, 7:26 am
  #49  
 
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Originally Posted by readywhenyouare
The latest stats show that only 11.6% of the US population is unionzed. That's why I said 88.4% will just leave their job of they are that unhappy with it.
OK, I understand that, but that doesn't mean what you said. Some of the large flaws with your logic here.
1 - you assume that all employees not in a union will leave if they're unhappy. Based on anecdotal reports, most employees who are unhappy just stay. Even if you disagree with the actual percentage here, your analysis fully ignores this group of employees, and you must admit that there is some percentage of employees who hate their jobs, but just stay anyways.
2 - you assume that all employees that are unionized are unhappy (or maybe, would have been unhappy had they not unionized and gotten a better deal).
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Old Oct 3, 2022, 7:30 am
  #50  
 
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Originally Posted by readywhenyouare
The airline industry is cyclical. For me, I'd rather have a steady and predictable salary throughout my career than these peaks and valleys. As it is now, you can expect to be paid like royalty during the good times and in the bad times you'll be lucky to not be furloughed for years.
Before the pandemic, I believed the industry was in the process of transforming from a cyclical to non-cyclical one. Given the favorable demographics, this may still transpire as expected, but, before the covid-stuff, I was convinced the “boom & bust” nature of the industry would soon be remnants of a prior era. Obviously, I miscalculated here, as I often do when trying to predict future events.

Originally Posted by readywhenyouare
I'm just using these numbers as an example. Maybe you make $400,000/year for six years but then get furloughed with no income for three years in a recession. I'd rather have a $200,000 steady income and not need such drastic hits during low times. And that would keep more pilots from being furloughed as well.

Not to mention that it seems today's pilots are not looking at the past. The flight engineer is gone, the navigator is gone, and the radio operator is gone. All replaced by automated systems. If they keep driving labor costs up it will only lead to faster adoption of single pilot operations and ultimately fully autonomous planes. Airbus has already demonstrated the A350 could be the flown single pilot in the future. Those who claim it can never happen are kidding themselves.
Ah, perfectly reasonable. However, I would prefer to have $400K/year, mostly because I’ve always felt that a dollar today is worth considerably more than a dollar tomorrow. Events unfolding in future years is an abstract concept while money I receive today isn’t—it’s tangible and real. In other words, one’s next step is and will always the most important, much more so than steps 2, 3, and 4; this isn’t to suggest future planning shouldn't be a consideration, only to stress that if that first step is catastrophic, whatever comes after however well planned is moot--per Patton, “A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow.”

For instance, what assurances that in subsequent years, I (I can only fly in my dreams and on Microsoft Flight Sim) won’t have a mishap preventing me from flying? Industry change such as automation, as you’ve saliently observed, rendering my piloting skills obsolete? Political and regulatory risks? Of course, to each his/her own, but I find it much more appealing to have the money now where I can control its fate, rather than rely on an external source that may or may not exist in the future in its current form.

It all comes down to this: when you have a chance to get it, take it. And, as jetsfan (must be brutal!) very poignantly observed, even if the pilots were to settle for less, they're going to get furloughed anyway if and when the market environment dictates.
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Old Oct 3, 2022, 7:37 am
  #51  
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Originally Posted by jetsfan92588
Specific to Delta pilots right now, my understanding is that Delta is already trying to hire/train as many pilots as they can, there just aren't enough. There's already a shortage, so even 25% quitting could bring operations down, because it's not as if Delta can just fly fewer planes and just ride it out. If this were a law firm for example - they could maybe just take fewer clients, their fixed costs would remain, but labor is by far their largest cost. Delta needs planes to move around in specific ways, and is not setup for a large reduction in force, and the resulting extreme reduction in routes or frequency of routes becomes very obvious, very quickly, to the flying public. And those people will be forced to choose a different airline. And given the incredible effort and massive amounts Delta spends to keep flyers "loyal", that would all go down the drain, as loyalty here isn't really loyalty, it's paid for.
Ed has said there is no pilot shortage at Delta. There are many more applicants than there are positions. Same with FAs. The problem right now is training. It takes time to train so many new pilots and re-train current pilots on new fleets.

The regional airlines certainly have a pilot shortage. SkyWest is losing (and struggling to replace) something like 10 percent of its pilots every month.
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Old Oct 3, 2022, 3:50 pm
  #52  
 
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Possible Pilots Strike

Hopefully it doesn't happen and I realize it's part of a lot of union contract negotiations to get a vote to strike but just in case I booked backup flights on Southwest for our November vacation.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...22%20agreement.
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Old Oct 3, 2022, 3:53 pm
  #53  
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Originally Posted by flyer4512
Hopefully it doesn't happen and I realize it's part of a lot of union contract negotiations to get a vote to strike but just in case I booked backup flights on Southwest for our November vacation.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...22%20agreement.
Active thread discussing this already:
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delt...tion-vote.html
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Old Oct 3, 2022, 4:49 pm
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Originally Posted by ATOBTTR
Active thread discussing this already:
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delt...tion-vote.html
I figured this topic might be a temporary sticky and searched page 1, looks like the thread was pushed back to page 2

I'm sure a mod will move my post
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Old Oct 3, 2022, 5:57 pm
  #55  
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Zero chance of any action occurring in Nov.
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Old Oct 3, 2022, 6:25 pm
  #56  
 
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Less than zero!
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Old Oct 3, 2022, 6:39 pm
  #57  
 
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Originally Posted by DLASflyer
The chance of a Biden NMB letting them strike is somewhere less than zero. I would guess its probably -68487587387487334345% right now. It isn't going to happen. The big 4 are simply too large at this point for a strike to be a realistic possibility. Its just going through the typical motions.
Originally Posted by readywhenyouare
The best thing might be to call their bluff and just liquidate the airline and start over. Nothing but extortion at this point when you had some A350 captains making close to seven figures as reported on the DL pilots forum on Airline Pilot Central. These folks aren't even close to struggling like many Americans (unless they are living way beyond their means) so I don't see how they think they'll gain much sympathy from a strike. And they obviously don't care about the Delta employees who makes far less than them who they'll be putting out of a job. Just my opinion though.
You know, you post stuff like this and when I read it, I think you must be trolling.

but you actually believe this kind of stuff. yikes.

but I guess its easy to sit behind a keyboard and screw with people's money and lives
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Old Oct 3, 2022, 6:51 pm
  #58  
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Originally Posted by emma dog
Hi,
I want to begin by saying that I agree that you should be entitled to your opinion. I'm personally ambivalent to labor unions... meaning, I wish they didn't exist and I wish they didn't take some of the tactics they take, but at the same time I understand why they exist, especially in a historical context.
Thank you. I appreciate hearing ofher opinions and would have thought others would as well. I view unions as nothing more than legalized extortion. They are essentially free to kill a business of any size. That is especially harmful to smaller firms that may have a legacy of years of struggling being built up by the owners. Margins can be razor thin for smaller companies and they may truly not be able to afford salary increases. Some owners have to even forego their own salaries in tight years.

Historically, unions were operated by the mafia and their behavior relfects that. It's as if arson were legal and your neighbor threatens to burn your house down unless you pay him every month. There's nothing stopping these essential employees from making wildly excessive demands. If the company doesn't have that kind of money and refuses then they'll just see to it that the entire company goes down.
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Old Oct 3, 2022, 6:52 pm
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Originally Posted by readywhenyouare
The best thing might be to call their bluff and just liquidate the airline and start over. Nothing but extortion at this point when you had some A350 captains making close to seven figures as reported on the DL pilots forum on Airline Pilot Central. These folks aren't even close to struggling like many Americans (unless they are living way beyond their means) so I don't see how they think they'll gain much sympathy from a strike. And they obviously don't care about the Delta employees who makes far less than them who they'll be putting out of a job. Just my opinion though.
The very few a350 pilots that were clearing that much were back when the a350 was being introduced to the fleet and was the result of too few pilots being qualified for the plane and full schedules set for it. The short answer is pilots were taking longer than expected to checkout and there was a mismatch between trips and pilots able to fly which led to those that were qualified picking up a bunch of trips beyond their normal schedule. You could argue it was delta management causing that problem just as much as pilots taking advantage of it.
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Old Oct 3, 2022, 6:56 pm
  #60  
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Originally Posted by Dawgfan6291
You know, you post stuff like this and when I read it, I think you must be trolling.

but you actually believe this kind of stuff. yikes.

but I guess its easy to sit behind a keyboard and screw with people's money and lives
Hmm, I guess you didn't see the likes that post of mine received. I'm not the only one who feels this way.
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