seageg91

Flight prices are up over 30% from 2019 to 2022 and business travel is down over 30% during that same time, so it's pretty clear it's leisure travel buying expensive flights in high volume, so we are definitely not competing with them for status.

audidudi

Instead we are competing with them for upgrades to D1/FC on domestic flights, as there are fewer upgrades available these days!

Adelphos

- Are "leisure" travelers and business travelers mutually exclusive? Can certain passengers be both? I would suggest I am both and many Flyertalkers seem to be both
- Do we know "leisure travelers" definitely don't have status?
- Upgrade lists appear as long as ever - if business travel is down 30%, but upgrade lists are longer, doesn't it mean that "leisure travelers" are filling the gap on upgrade lists? Again, someone has to be filling upgrade lists, first class seats, lounges, etc

I don't know the answers to these questions myself, I'm just saying the numbers may not add up for some drop in medallion customers based purely on the amount of people flying and the prices these people are paying.

JBJ2435

I disagree. My business travel is just now coming back very sparsely I might add, but I am very much still trying to maintain status. As well, I had all of the UG certificates (both GUC and RUC) that rolled over several years so I've accelerated by leisure travel, and yes I'm wait listing those in some cases. I earned my DM last year, but it's looking like I will fall short on the MQD this time. I think there was a combination of people have pent up "travel revenge" or whatever you call it, but also an abundance of vacation time not used, plus credits to use up and then the notice about the certs expiring has quite a few people in the air, plus the reduction in schedules makes for harder complimentary upgrades...

DiverDave

Diamond will clear out nicely on 01 February as $15K MQD is a decent barrier.

Platinum will be clogged for years to come with three years of MQMs and only $25K spend on an Amex card to hold that level.

David

seageg91

Good points, I guess I was mainly referring to leisure travel as in people not on flyertalk. And they're buying expensive flights as one offs. I've had good luck w/ upgrades as a platinum, and since getting diamond last month I'm 6/6 on upgrades at 120 hrs out. But did notice on a flight today between DTW and ATL the upgrade list was at 70 w/ only 1 seat available. So there's definitely a point you have, I was just going off some Deloite report that said business travel was like 50% of what it was prepandemic. But it would be interesting to see if that has affected all airlines similarly. Maybe Delta has seen less of a drop off.

beachmouse

Currently 17 out of 49 for 2 F for ATL-GRR today. The elite glut seems very real. (And hey, I’ll admit to being part of the problem)

DLHubber

I’m exclusively a leisure traveler and a PM. I’ve travelled more in 2022 than any year prior, and don’t see that slowing down. It’s all thanks to working remotely.

Adelphos

Very easy to see leisure travelers making PM and DM if they can swing purchasing just a single international Delta One fare at $5,000-$6,000, combined with other travel. D1 cabins to Europe were full, D1 cabins to South Korea and Japan will come back, etc.

DrMilano

I believe it is the reduction in flight frequency schedule is causing the bloated upgrade list. One of my gate agents at my home airport (CHS) told me last week there was 16 DM's recently on a flight to ATL. Flight prices are dropping for fall travel, but Europe wasn't that high for this summer if booked prior to the mask mandate and 1 day COVID testing being repelled. Domestic fares jump drastically for April to August travel, but are now falling.

Delta wants the medallions with rolling over status 2020 and 2021, but now we're all dealing with a glut of DM/PM's.

I'm just waiting for the 1st thread complaining for roll-over status again for next year, with some FTer's business travel still down compared to 2019.

Qwkynuf

I think that you are basing this on a faulty assumption. You can't begin to gate-auction upgrades and expect all other factors to remain constant. As soon as a program like that starts, a number of people who would normally buy directly into First will instead decide to buy coach and try to save a few bucks at the gate. I would bet that it would be close to a zero-sum game.

In addition, implementing a system like that would destroy the upgrade certificates.

Can't see it happening, and can't say that i'd be happy if it ever did.

seageg91

While I'm sure there are some people that buy first class that would be willing to take the risk of not getting it or getting it later, I assume the majority are price elastic and would buy it at the time of booking for the peace of mind.

Upgrade certificates would turn into auction bucks. And the default complimentary upgrades are silver gets a bid of $50, gold is $100, platinum is $150, diamond is $200, etc (and you can always add more to it)

I work in marketing, revenue, and business development so these types of thought experiments are fun for me. But from a delta customer, I hope it doesn't happen.

defrosted

On average most people jumped a status, and then eventually will drop back. So it all works out.

15 of 40 for 2 or 20 of 30 for 2.

Who cares. Lol

Qwkynuf

Well, you are obviously way smarter than me, so I defer. But this is pretty much exactly why Delta doesn't sell DOD upgrades to D1 on international flights, so there's that.

CycloneSteve

It all depends on how you think about it. YEARS ago, when I first decided to focus on Northwest Airlines (yes, I'm old) it was because I was flying 5-6 times a year to LA, 3-4 times a year to Michigan plus an odd vacation or conference. I was looking for the cheapest fair on whatever airline. Eventually I realized that if I picked one (I didn't really care which) I flew enough to get perks. Splitting 70k miles over 5 airlines get's you a free soda in coach. Focusing all those flights on one airline would get me GM/PM and used to get me upgraded quite often. If in 2024 or 2025 the rollover PMs get cleared out I suspect focusing your flights will once again become quite useful.

It's true a flyer could save using Spirit or Allegiant (I've tried a flight or two with friends and family) but I find it to be a much less enjoyable experience.