Delta Pilots Write Open Letter to Customers re RecordTravel Demand
 

Quite a positive tone compared to recent communications from the pilots unions at wn and aa.

Source: https://www.alpa.org/news-and-events...re-frustration

I sincerely feel if airlines has more hubs it would reduce major delays. Delta should have kept CVG and MEM as hubs.

so you think that a company with staffing issues would be better off stretching staff across multiple locations?........wat........?

Soon enough demand will slow a bit.

Consumers haven't figured out that their dollars are worth less yet. Give it a few months, and the gas, consumer goods, and grocery prices will start to take a toll.

I think most consumers have figured out exactly how much less their dollars buy. They get their faces rubbed in it with every trip to Safeway, not to mention browsing delta.com. Gasoline volume sales are down about 5%, and the CEO of Kroger just told an analysts' call customers are spending less and spurning name-brand groceries for house-label dupes.

In the travel sector we're seeing a spurt of so-called "revenge travel" by leisure buyers who are shooting the moon, damn the expense, after two years of pacing their own living rooms. It will cool off soon enough. In the likely event of a recession, it'll go from cool to cold -- or people who might have flown DL will shop Allegiant or Spirit to save a few bucks.

So when Delta et al get a handle on their systemic issues, the airports will probably be less crowded anyway. People don't go to Europe when they're afraid of opening this month's electric bill. Not to mention their quarterly IRA statement.

Gas sales down 5%? The costs are up what? 50%?

Nah, I don't think the reality has hit most folks just yet.

I say this because I see people zipping along the highway in their big trucks, or leaving them running when they go into Home Depot. I say it because I see people sitting in a running car talking on their cell phone. I say it because folks are still buying the exact same stuff at the grocery store. I say it because I see folks crowding into the airports to fly somewhere.

Seems to me that folks aren't quite aware of the reality. Yet. Many folks won't realize it enough to react to it for several more months. Inflation at 8% overall is a big deal for people who are used to borrowing at lower rates than that with no inflation.

Bookings are already down. May Bookings Slip

With the economy slowing, post-Covid business travel recovery looks even more tentative--the fall will be a real tell for the airlines.

That said, even as people realize their buying power is diminished, summer and many holiday vacations are already budgeted and were "locked-in" at non-refundable prices many months ago. So, vacationers may drink less on a cruise, shop less in Europe, etc, but the air/hotel/package will still get used.

Also, I think there's an argument that a higher percentage of air travelers fall into the more-insulated demographic of the economy (i.e., where there is still strong demand for luxury products) vs. the overall market for gas/groceries/consumer staples.

Was in response to "buckeye fan flyer".

Do you really care, or just prepping for the 2023 championship game :-)

I agree with your other points but I think this especially is something that a lot of people overlook when trying to evaluate behavior based on what they "see". Most of these people have probably seen their investments, home values, 401ks, and other retirement accounts skyrocket, so they feel very comfortable with where they're at financially, and if they have to spend 5% more on groceries (a relatively small dollar value expenditure) it doesn't matter that much to them.

It's not until people become nervous about the future state (not the inflation that has already happened) where we will see it drive consumer behavior in these demographics. Business behavior is a lot different as the cautiousness hits much quicker, and often before consumers are even aware that things are slowing down.

Indeed, Flyertalk, overweighted toward premium-cabin travelers who so often assert long-haul travel is unsurvivable without lounges and lie-flats, is not the place to look for an objective assessment of what the average American is going through right now. This forum is not a reflection of the economy -- not even the subset of consumers that travel by air semi-regularly.

On the other hand, I have found Flyertalk a generally poor predictor of travel demand in the Covid-19 era - Flyertalkers have said they expect leisure travel to "collapse" for the past 15 months or so

???? Largely it did collapse until around the holiday period 2021/2022.

With the economy on the verge of a major slowdown or even recession, I expect leisure travel to take a swoon at the end of the summer.

David

Leisure travel, in a lot of ways, surpassed 2019 levels as of Summer 2021 and has remained above since. The same prediction (leisure travel will decline after summer) was made last year, and was wrong.

I bet in the upcoming downturn, leisure travel will remain pretty resilient, maybe even more resilient than business travel - leisure has been the most resilient segment the past several downturns

I agree with the pilots' union. This is all at the feet of the airlines. They did too many buyouts and cut too far back during the pandemic (and took the welfare payments from the US government) and now the chickens have come home to roost.

Like others posting here, I believe demand will continue to cool down and the airlines will have to re-evaluate their ridiculous prices.