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DL continues to weaken operationally (Summer 2022 Meltdown)

DL continues to weaken operationally (Summer 2022 Meltdown)

Old Jun 26, 22, 9:26 am
  #361  
 
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Originally Posted by DLASflyer View Post
The data is normalized. Percent cancelled. It matters little what US region you are in, every flight needs two pilots.

The point is many other US airlines have cut enough flights to match staffing. Delta hasn't.
Your post said "flights cancelled", not "percentage of flights cancelled".

And it was the data for one day, which isn't particularly interesting from a comparison perspective.

You could choose a different day and the data might be different. The region matters, as weather causes flight cancellations, unless you've only presented data for one particular cause. As far as I can tell, you haven't normalized for types of equipment, either.

It may well be that your conclusion is correct, but it's not apparent from what you presented here.
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Old Jun 26, 22, 9:29 am
  #362  
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Originally Posted by Goodoldflyer View Post
Your post said "flights cancelled", not "percentage of flights cancelled".

And it was the data for one day, which isn't particularly interesting from a comparison perspective.

You could choose a different day and the data would be different.

It may well be that your conclusion is correct, but it's not apparent from what you presented here.
On peak meltdown days (which have occurred frequently in June), Delta ends up at about 6-7% cancelled - the other majors usually top out at 3% at the most

Are you really claiming Delta hasn’t had worse operations than peers in June?
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Old Jun 26, 22, 9:34 am
  #363  
 
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Originally Posted by Adelphos View Post
On peak meltdown days (which have occurred frequently in June), Delta ends up at about 6-7% cancelled - the other majors usually top out at 3% at the most

Are you really claiming Delta hasn’t had worse operations than peers in June?

I'm just saying "show me the data".
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Old Jun 26, 22, 10:42 am
  #364  
 
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Originally Posted by Goodoldflyer View Post
I'm just saying "show me the data".
https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today
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Old Jun 26, 22, 11:04 am
  #365  
 
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Originally Posted by Adelphos View Post
On peak meltdown days (which have occurred frequently in June), Delta ends up at about 6-7% cancelled - the other majors usually top out at 3% at the most

Are you really claiming Delta hasn’t had worse operations than peers in June?
​​​​​​Its not clear that cancelling versus delays is "worse." Most customers prefer a cancellation over a rolling six hour delay. And cancellations can be easier for the rest of the system.

As for the link to Flight aware, one of the tricky things is people in this thread consider regionals to be Delta, and flightaware does not. But yesterday, AA delayed 25% of flights and canceled 2%. Delta delayed 12% and canceled 8%. United delayed 21% and canceled 3%. I don't think a pattern like this shows what you think.
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Old Jun 26, 22, 11:13 am
  #366  
 
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Originally Posted by Goodoldflyer View Post
Your post said "flights cancelled", not "percentage of flights cancelled".
I said percentage canceled.
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Old Jun 26, 22, 11:37 am
  #367  
 
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What's really incredible is Delta shrunk twice as much as American and United on a percentage basis, shrunk 8x more than Southwest, shrunk 30x more than JetBlue and has the lowest completion factor of the bunch now. Just a stunning failure to plan and execute.
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Old Jun 26, 22, 11:40 am
  #368  
 
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Originally Posted by Adam1222 View Post
​​​​​​Its not clear that cancelling versus delays is "worse." Most customers prefer a cancellation over a rolling six hour delay. And cancellations can be easier for the rest of the system.

As for the link to Flight aware, one of the tricky things is people in this thread consider regionals to be Delta, and flightaware does not. But yesterday, AA delayed 25% of flights and canceled 2%. Delta delayed 12% and canceled 8%. United delayed 21% and canceled 3%. I don't think a pattern like this shows what you think.
In these days of very high LFs, cancellations are absolutely worse than delays. No question.
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Old Jun 26, 22, 11:45 am
  #369  
 
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Originally Posted by Goodoldflyer View Post
Your post said "flights cancelled", not "percentage of flights cancelled".

And it was the data for one day, which isn't particularly interesting from a comparison perspective.

You could choose a different day and the data might be different. The region matters, as weather causes flight cancellations, unless you've only presented data for one particular cause. As far as I can tell, you haven't normalized for types of equipment, either.

It may well be that your conclusion is correct, but it's not apparent from what you presented here.
I believe the post does say by percent?

Also yes, the points you raise are technically and academically correct. In the absence of a perfect dataset (time series, normalized by equipment) I’d argue that a series of point in time snapshots (i.e. this 1-2 month old thread) if sufficient to conclude that DL operations are materially worse than major competitors. Additionally, a Saturday in June with no major weather nationwide a week before the 4th of July long weekend is a decent indicator of how consumers will likely perceive airline performance.

But yes, it is easy to continue to say “show me the data” to defend Delta…
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Old Jun 26, 22, 11:59 am
  #370  
 
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Originally Posted by meljfk View Post
I believe the post does say by percent?

Also yes, the points you raise are technically and academically correct. In the absence of a perfect dataset (time series, normalized by equipment) I’d argue that a series of point in time snapshots (i.e. this 1-2 month old thread) if sufficient to conclude that DL operations are materially worse than major competitors. Additionally, a Saturday in June with no major weather nationwide a week before the 4th of July long weekend is a decent indicator of how consumers will likely perceive airline performance.

But yes, it is easy to continue to say “show me the data” to defend Delta…
I think it's easy for people who are convinced of their correctness to find data to support their thesis, particularly if focused on single days and no scientifically reliable data analysis. A Saturday in June with a storm in Charlotte will obviously look different across airlines than a Saturday in June with storms in NY and Boston as will a Saturday in June with storms in Northern Virginia. I'm not sure what three day weekends have to do with it. Certainly the number of passengers complaining (or to be reaccommodated) might differ, but there aren't usually more flights scheduled on three day weekends.

I'm not sure how this thread could present series in time snapshots. It's a thread where people complain when they feel aggrieved. Not an accurate snapshot of dates in time, and certainly does not control for weather and other things well outside Deltas control.
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Old Jun 26, 22, 12:03 pm
  #371  
 
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Originally Posted by Adam1222 View Post
​​​​​​Its not clear that cancelling versus delays is "worse." Most customers prefer a cancellation over a rolling six hour delay. And cancellations can be easier for the rest of the system.
I don't know that most customers prefer cancellations. Count me as one that does not. With the load factors where they are all of my cancelled flights have led to rebooking over 24 hours later than my original schedule...I'd much rather take a delay. (Fortunately, all of the trips were for work and I was able to rebook on other airlines to get home sooner.)
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Old Jun 26, 22, 12:04 pm
  #372  
 
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Originally Posted by dcstudent View Post
I don't know that most customers prefer cancellations. Count me as one that does not. With the load factors where they are all of my cancelled flights have led to rebooking over 24 hours later than my original schedule...I'd much rather take a delay. (Fortunately, all of the trips were for work and I was able to rebook on other airlines to get home sooner.)
Do you fly nonstop? Because if your three hour delay means you miss your connection, not sure how that's any different. And we all know that if Delta delayed a flight an hour, then another hour, then another hour, the armchair airline executives on this thread would post how that is a sign of incompetence and you should just cancel the flight so people can rebook earlier. All delays aren't equal, and all cancellations aren't equal. Both aren't great. If Delta canceled 8% and delayed 5%, and United canceled 4% and delayed 25%; Delta's delays were 1 hour or less and Uniteds delays were all 3 hours or more; Delta canceled in advance and United canceled at the gate. Would that still be a sign that Deltas operations are far inferior? I don't see how.
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Old Jun 26, 22, 12:05 pm
  #373  
 
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A delay means I keep my RUC.
a cancel means they won’t rebook into OX on Domestic D1.
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Old Jun 26, 22, 12:08 pm
  #374  
 
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Originally Posted by Pianoman109876 View Post
A delay means I keep my RUC.
a cancel means they won’t rebook into OX on Domestic D1.
Clearly that is the sign of whether an airlines operations are good.
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Old Jun 26, 22, 12:14 pm
  #375  
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1) Cancellations are much worse than delays - I generally only fly nonstop, cancellations have led me to have to connect, often in much worse seating given all seats have been allocated beforehand. Plus a cancellation can result in you missing a meeting, having to pay for additional lodging, etc

2) Very consistently, on weekends, Delta has been running in the 6-7% cancel rate. We post this every weekend, JonNYC has something on this today

3) Everyone voicing complaints about this are Delta elite members who have relied on the airline for years. I'm not sure what incentive we would have to try to massage the data to make Delta look worse. Many of us are posting our real time experience with operational weakness and back it up with the flightaware data. Today, Delta has cancelled 6% of its flights versus 2% for American and 1% for United.
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