carzin

We are 'hoping' to go to Paris in September assuming the world doesn't come apart again. Raleigh Durham had a direct flight to CDG that opened back up in September. When we booked the tickets, the flight for main cabin was around $1400 round trip. On my app, I have noticed that there are only 12 tickets booked in Comfort + and maybe a few Delta One and a small number of main. Obviously, this is months out, but since this an awards ticket, I check often to see if anything gets cheaper so I can rebook at a lower mileage rate. To my surprise, the flight has now gone from $1500 to over $3000. The next option is through Boston at $1400.

Is this what Delta is likely doing so they can cancel the flight altogether? I think someone would have to be desperate to book it. We have reasons to really want the direct flight, but don't feel the need to share here. I am trying to decide if I need to be proactive about changing the itinerary.

FlyerWx

I noticed the exorbitant fares on RDU-CDG in September too, but it was recent. Since DL hasn't really changed the RDU-CDG schedules beyond September 7th (iirc), I wouldn't be surprised *at all* if, with the next schedule change, they push the start date back again.

Seems like they zeroed out the lower fare buckets, which isn't a good sign

xliioper

Yep, this is not a good look (both D1 and coach lower buckets are zero'd out). September flights (only 3x weekly already) look to pretty clearly be on the chopping blocking. Most likely with Saturday schedule load.

carzin

Bummer. I guess I will let them cancel it and then I can avoid paying award differences (if there are any).

MSPeconomist

Several years ago when DL started an IND-CDG nonstop, I was shocked that connections MSP-IND-CDG were much more expensive than MSP-CDG nonstop (which normally is expensive anyway due to the fortress hub factor) for no apparent reason.

Maybe DL is experimenting to see whether this route can sell at high prices.

Duke787

I don't have high hopes that RDU - CDG comes back in September (sadly). I wouldn't be at all surprised if they just wait for next April/May to bring it back when they can combine (hopefully) a return to international business travel with the summer vacation season (which is when I expect I'll next be flying it anyway).

Other possibility is they are going to keep it but downgrade back to a 752 for the winter season (which could also lead to a zeroing out of fare buckets so they don't oversell the downgrade) but I suspect cancellation is the more likely outcome.

I doubt it at the current time. When business travel is booming they can definitely sell at high prices targeting those of us based at RDU on OPM to take the convenience of RDU - CDG - XYZ to Europe over RDU - JFK / ATL / BOS - XYZ - ABC but with primarily leisure travelers only right now, I doubt they can command high prices ex-RDU.

indufan

Really sucks when the taxpayers of Indiana were also footing part of the tab. But the market price is the market price. Or maybe the subsidy didn't pay for connecting passengers and Delta was making that part up but you said "much more expensive" which I doubt makes up all of the difference.

MSPeconomist

IIRC I also checked whether I could save money by using a separate ticket MSP-IND and return, and still saw the very high prices for the RT IND-CDG flights.

Paplover

Some prices are all over the place. I recently booked a July trip to DUB via AMS (no direct US-DUB service yet) and when I started it was ~$700 RT. When it was booked it was up to ~$1400 RT and the following week went back to $700, currently about $1050. It is just weird.

xliioper

With only Y/B fare buckets open on the RDU-CDG flights in September, the coach fares are going for $4800 roundtrip for the B fares. This is very much a different situation and pretty clearly signals DL's lack of interest in actually selling seats on these flights and their intent to cancel them.

MSPeconomist

If the cheapest B RT is $4800, that seems high. I would guessed that there would be RT B TATL fares in the $3000-3500 range.

Lomapaseo

fear not, the price will drop back to $1500 one day only to go back to $3000 in a couple of days. This will be repeated by Delta over weeks trying to get you to jump on the low end when you run out of patience expecting the dice may never align again

for me I always lose in the timing only to see the price never again to fall because everybody else jumped on the last low cycle

MSPeconomist

If you're willing to keep checking, you can cancel and purchase the same flights at the lower price. In the past, doing this usually involved a fee, so the price saving needed to exceed several hundred dollars to be worthwhile. Now, at worst the cost of the original ticket becomes a voucher rather than a refund, which is fine if you fly DL enough.

It's more complicated if you paid to purchase a seat (paid to upgrade without upfaring the ticket) or used GUCs/RUCs or mileage upgrade awards.

OTOH I usually impose a rule on myself that when I see a price I like, I buy and then don't do much further checking.

xliioper

The coach fares are actually $4834 roundtrip due to only Y/B bucket availability (the $3000 roundtrip price involves either October or connecting returns where there is availability in lower coach buckets). Meanwhile, with D1 buckets being J9 C0 D0 I0 Z0, D1 fares are $14K roundtrip. This is absolutely not "normal" variability in bucket availability (especially for shoulder season) and is clearly a strong indication they will cancel flights. There are roundtrip fares in September from $1098/$1248 in E/X classes with a connection. Here's a view from Google Flights for non-stops showing stark contrast on one-way coach fares which are all $2530 in September due to only Y/B bucket being open. (Flights are currently 5x weekly with 9/9 start, mistakenly said 3x weekly above).

vinnmann

I hope when it went down to $700, you cancelled and rebooked resulting in a future travel credit for the difference.