MichaelKade

I’m debating between going for Diamond or rolling over ~50K MQMs to ensure Platinum through 2024.

With nearly 50K MQMs rolled over due to COVID, I’m in a unique spot this year to go for Diamond. I will not hit Diamond in 2022 (for 2023) based on my travel patterns and there’s a chance if I don’t rollover the MQMs I might not hit Platinum in 2022 (for 2023). I would definitely be Gold.

The only reason I can think of to hit Diamond would be the GUCs. After reading mixed reviews I’m not sure these are all they’re cracked up to be, but I would like to visit Sydney in 2022 and having the GUCs would be great if I could find upgrade space. Domestically, I’m primarily flying ATL-LAX, ATL-DAL, and ATL-LGA, so I don’t count on a ton of complimentary upgrades (except for maybe DAL) and this doesn’t really factor into my decision.

Two reasons I’d want to hit platinum:

• Economy comfort for free
• Award ticket redeposit waiver (now available to everyone)

Posting here for some advice from folks wiser about this stuff than I am. TIA!

mnbp

I'd do some math.
1) Calculate the extra cash you'd spend in order to reach DM. Call this "X".
2) Estimate the cash cost of D1 to SYD. Call this "Y".
3) Estimate the odds of GUC success. Call this "Z".

Go for DM
IF
X * (1/Z) > Y

Or, to be conservative, discount your estimated GUC success by half.

X * (1 / (Z / 2) ) > Y

Keep in mind - I don't think GUCs are worth very much, and neither does DL. DL only lets you use them if they've been unsuccessful in selling the seat, so why should I disagree with DL's valuation?

WScottsdaleInsider

I'd say 2 years of Platinum is better than one year of Diamond. With travel still not fully recovered, I think upgrades will be easier the rest of this year and even next year

MichaelKade

I wouldn’t spend any extra to hit Diamond. In fact to hit Plat w/ 50k rollover I’d take one less trip. Just a question of which is more valuable

Ringer909

I'm in the same situation as you and have decided to stop short of Diamond to ensure PM with bigger rollovers in coming years. I keep telling myself next year I'm going to travel less. I've had no issue making PM for the last several years and stopped short of DM in 2019 as well. My problem tho is maximizing MQM's per MQD with the Accelerator. Currently my travel ticketed through December will put me over $14k on MQD with about 120k MQM not including my 2020 rollover. But one last minute trip, which will happen inevitably, and I'll be teetering at $15k.

My plan is to schedule expensive last minute trips on UA to maximize PQD's and maybe have the opportunity to avoid the back of the plane at least on the MSP-DEN leg.

sydneyracquelle

I had this a few years ago. For my last trip in December I removed my FF number from my reservation online to ensure I did not cross the threshold. I did this after ensuring I had a comfortable exit row seat in MC.

Mr. Tickets

I hope you are right on this. I am thinking the direct opposite. Everybody and their hamster are going to be Platinum with all the bonuses, rollover etc.

Adelphos

Not sure about Diamond, but there is no way there isn’t a substantial increase in Platinum elite numbers for 2022. It will probably normalize in 2023. Diamond next year could be worth it just to be ranked over the glut of Diamonds. But given the OP’s routes are Diamond heavy, it may not matter.

MarkCron

Maybe I am an outlier, but I am a 10 year or so Platinum that will just meet the Silver spend this year so I can rollover MQMs.
Hoping to plan a partner flight or 2 in early 2022 to get the MQD's needed to make a quick return to Platinum, but that is no guarantee,

Adelphos

Yeah, I think the pattern for the “Platinum surge” for 2022 goes lIke this:

- Member makes FO or Gold with decent amount of rollover from 2019 to 2020
- Travel pauses in 2020, but member still gets a Amex MQM boost and does a small amount of flying in 2020; everything rolls over into 2021
- Member resumes flying at some point in 2021, gets an enhanced Amex boost, plus Status Accelerator, makes Platinum for 2022

ryandc99

I am having the same decision, and ended up with going for Platinum in 2021. I don't have the MQD with no business travel to hit diamond, and would rather roll over the additional MQM and be well setup for getting platinum again next year vs go for mileage dollar runs to hit Diamond in 2021.

To me, there is very little value to diamond currently with no international travel feasible and no need for GUCs. I still get free economy comfort with Platinum, which is the most valuable benefit to me. Upgrade priority isn't really a big deal as a Diamond out of ATL, I am often 6 or 7 on the list.

I agree that your top benefits for keeping platinum are free economy comfort and the free award ticket redeposit, which is now available to everyone.

Duke787

I'm in the same boat as most here. Sticking with PM and the big rollover. I have enough miles in different places (especially with COVID) to get J for personal travel if we go somewhere international in 2022. And I expect that business travel next year will be heavily tilted toward domestic (where RUCs can help but GUCs don't add much value) given the vaccination rates and policies outside the US.

cre95

I understand that the GUC probability is low for the LAX-SYD so would take that into account. I’m sure it’s not zero chance but if your real interest is solely around the GUC for that route, I would go for two years of platinum.

Also, if you were hoping for two seats each way, I would really discount that likelihood.

Orange County Commuter

As someone who is gold based on being a 2 million miler and whose current travel for the last few years has basically been negligible this year I have a very good shot at making platinum


So using me as an example I would say you may be seeing a large increase in platinum next year.

troyintn

I am also debating this but leaning on doing an MQD run to make DM in 2021. I am rolling over 500k MQMs, but with a few domestic trips this year one a month, MQDs are my issue. My thoughts are if I do not travel much in 2022, then being a PM or DM will not matter, since I am not sure if I will ever go back on the road.