Adelphos

I am doing more traveling now, and flights are full, with upgrade lists long. I would expect to see Delta start to ramp capacity up in this environment going into what appears to be a busy summer. However, looking at some routes I used to fly frequently, the frequency is still down meaningfully pre-pandemic. Anyone else notice this?

cmd320

Delta pretty consistently for the last 14 months has trailed in adding back flights. Even as other airlines started new routes, Delta just sort of sat around. It doesn't seem like that's changing much anytime soon.

xliioper

A lot of this has been covered in the Schedule Changes thread whenever DL does their major schedule cuts (usually monthly). The last one a few weeks ago cut the schedule from June through September 7th. You can see the before and after by looking at flights on 9/7 vs. 9/8 (9/8 flights reflect pre-cut frequencies). Some hubs are not as heavily affected as others. For example, ATL-ORD is the same 9x daily mainline flights on 9/7 and 9/8. DTW-ORD goes from 6x daily to 7x daily between 9/7 and 9/8, but 9/7 (summer schedule) is all RJ, while 9/8 (pre-cut summer schedule) is all mainline -- a pretty massive capacity reduction. LGA-ORD is 8x daily on 9/7 (summer schedule), while pre-cut frequencies show 15x daily flights on 9/8. Note that it is still possible they will add back frequencies for later summer schedule (June schedule is probably fixed at this point), but as noted above, DL has been pretty conservative in this regard.

MSPeconomist

Scheduling changes require advanced planning. DL can't just unpark an aircraft and instantly find crew to fly it, etc. Also, single flights aren't considered in isolation but rather in the context of the entire network and optimal capacity utilization.

ethernal

If your flights are ex-NYC, part of that is because that is a region that has been a laggard in terms of recovery. In addition, if you are a business-oriented traveler, many business travel oriented routes have remained scrapped (e.g., SJC nonstops from ATL/JFK) while leisure routes have been beefed up.

Business travel continues to be the big question mark. The data is showing a clear inflection point occurring (slowly but surely) - but the question is where the ceiling will end up. My guess is that Delta will be much more conservative with September cuts (i.e. more aggressive routing) because that is - from what I can see across industry - shaping up to be a big watershed moment. A lot of firms are saying "back to office by September" driven by kids being back in school by then.

Aloha1

Correct but proper use of supply chain logistics would have DL prepare aircraft to return to service and recall staff in advance of anticipated demand. This looks like they want to see demand first and then follow which is a lousy way to operate when the evidence of turnaround is right in front of their nose.

Adelphos

I am ex-NYC - what gets me is both business and leisure routes are down significantly, at least for what I fly. I know deep in the pandemic that everything was routed through ATL but I would have guessed a few more LGA leisure flights would have returned

I think it will take years to know the “ceiling” for business travel

DLASflyer

I don’t think Delta can add much more for awhile. They don’t have enough pilots.

CPMaverick

Depends. It's lousy for customers for them to wait, but if they can charge a lot more in the meantime, it might be better for Delta.

As long as they don't think the competition will take too many customers away, Delta is going to let demand cause price increases rather than proactively add supply.

DiverDave

Not necessarily - many folks are expecting a significant travel fall off after the summer travel season concludes. Keep in mind that most students will be returning to classrooms.

Adelphos

There should be a lot more corporate travel in the fall. I know there are more conventions. I agree air travel will decline from summer (it always does) but you could see some midweek travel return

dtwtransport

Also the early retirement of some of the domestic fleet types is causing limitations too; M88, M90, 73H, etc…? (And some of the 717s?)

Not sure how many 321s and 221/223’s have come online since the fleet reductions.

WillBarrett_68

the flights are only full *because* the frequencies are down

cmd320

It depends on what market you're talking about. SLC for example is already back to exceeding passenger volumes from 2019.

OHDL1

........ (slowly but surely)....... Don't call me....Shirley!
Couldn't help myself...lol.