Speculation Thread: Will delta change status policies for 2022 status year (Closed )
 

I started the thread "DL to Extend Status to Feb-2022 due to COVID 19" in the form of a plausible question last March (title changed by mods to reflect the outcome). DL and the other carriers made the logical move and extended status through early 2022.

But here we are entering February, 2021 and sadly Covid is still raging with widespread vaccine rollout, by some estimates, not being done until at least Autumn in the US. Constant Covid-free air travel for most people is not considered feasible for many months. The US President has just ordered self-quarantine for those flying from abroad which further limits the plausibility for international air travel for many people. Government officials are exploring mandatory Covid testing before any flight.

For international travel, the Acting Assistant Secretary of State said, “[the] main message to U.S. citizens considering travel abroad remains the same: Seriously reconsider going overseas right now. If you’re overseas right now, it’s going to be harder to come home for a while.”

The cold reality being is we cannot travel as much by air as we did in 2019 or perhaps not at all this year. I don't have the stats, but retaining status in 2021 will be literally impossible for a huge amount of elites even with the MQM rollovers (reminder that MQD's returned to zero on January 1).

So here is a perfectly sensible question: Will Delta extend again current elite statues for another year?

My biggest challenge to make DM is the $15,000 MQDs. MQMs are easy with rollover, Amex spend and PWM but I cannot put $250,000 on my Amex and cannot spend $15,000 MQDs without international travel so it looks like it will be PM for me next year unless DL reduces the DM MQD requirement to $10,000 or below.

As with the same threads started for each of the other major US carriers, the answer is likely that it is far too early to even contemplate the answer to this question. Same factors for UA & AA. Business travel not likely to return until 2024 and, even then, a good chunk of that is likely gone forever as many discover that what they thought required travel, does not.

For 2021 it was just a question of maintaining. Now, carriers have to rethink their business plan and what it will take. Once that is in hand, they can then start to think about how that affects the FFP and on what terms. How to identify the people likely to spend and encourage that spend on DL?

Given that nobody has a remote idea of what the course of Covid looks like, seems like this isn't something to deal with now.

I don't think Delta is going to make this call until later in the year. Depending on the speed of vaccine rollout, both domestically and abroad, international travel could resume in earnest as soon as April or as late as November/December.

Delta will definitely make some sort of concession, but I'm not expecting it to be a full status extension - likely a reduced MQD threshold, perhaps a return of the DM waiver at $25k spend on the Amex card, that kind of thing. But I don't think they'll make that call until the point at which things start to open back up.

I think the earliest possible timeframe for an announcement is March, when seat blocking is set to expire; it would make sense to tie the resumption of normal cabin service and seating to SkyMiles program updates in one big announcement. But it might not come until travelers start returning in earnest.

I would expect reduced qualifying requirements before another extension. Keeps those who are currently flying engaged without giving away benefits to thousands of flyers who will never return to their pre-covid travel levels.

Agree 100% with this. There will likely be some concession, and I believe your suspicion on MQD waiver is spot-on. A lot of people (myself included) cancelled their Delta Amex - by doing a one-time waiver reduction, you "force" people back into the ecosystem. There may be other concessions (e.g., lowering MQD requirement down to $2000/$4000/$6000/$9000) but I definitely see the Amex waiver being mucked around with.

I know nothing about Delta's plans either. But, I have moved a number of international partner flights to the second half of the year. It should be enough to get me to Diamond as long as I can actually *take* all the flights.

No need to extend status. Reward those of us who are travelling now, not those who used to travel. The entire economy has changed. The old business travel scene is dead. Many of those folks will never come back.

True, but I doubt Delta wants to risk losing frequent flyers. It doesn't cost them much to maintain people's status. The most "expensive" thing for them is if someone just selects 20K SkyMiles / 3x25K SkyMiles for choice benefits. Everything else doesn't really cost them anything. And if people aren't flying, they aren't consuming the non-cost items (upgrades, SkyClub access, etc).

If people are going to "return to travel", it will happen in H2 2021. I agree that a straight extension doesn't make sense (if you're not doing a good bit of travel by the back side of H2 2021, you're probably not ever going back into the air like the old days) - but if people start flying at pace in late Q3/Q4, I doubt Delta won't come up with a creative way to extend their status. It may not even be published and they'll do "private" extension offers. I'm sure they'll make a decision when they have more data.

I have always considered the 250K Amex spend required to make DM over the top steep anyway. Putting the spend required at 75K or 100K would have been much more in line with reality back 3 years ago when the change was made.

No real need too IMO. The rollover and the DL AMEX Plat give enough for those of us who may be still restricted in traveling to at least get PM which is fair

There is zero chance of April.
Very logical conclusions however.

Losing 90% of Diamonds isn't in Delta's interest. With current requirements, they would lose 90% of Diamonds.

Delta's interest is survival. I don't think anything else matters. If they can survive and get to the other side then they can take action to extend status or provide incentives to accelerate the return of Diamonds but right now DL (and all the other airlines) are in survival mode and that comes before everything else (and I have to think the volume actively flying Diamonds is so low it's irrelevant if they keep or lose them at this point in time).

CX, EK, QF have extended status for an additional year. I suspect several US carriers will do the same.

I wouldn't draw a parallel to those. CX and EK are heavily skewed international which was the first domino to fall and will be the last one to be put back upright. QF is slightly more comparable to US carriers in terms of some domestic mix, but the 6 Australian states are currently acting as independent countries with border controls so even that one is questionable.

If all goes well here in the states, an outright blanket extension is unlikely; major concessions or "alternative ways" to earn status will be likely.