What does PM/DM look like in '22?

Old Mar 17, 21, 1:00 am
  #61  
 
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Originally Posted by FlyingBeanCounter View Post
DL is a for profit business. They honestly only care about us to the extent we open our wallet.
And you think other airlines are not there for profit ?

I wish you good luck with other airlines. You will see ... Other airlines customer services can be worse than Delta ...
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Old Mar 18, 21, 6:42 am
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Originally Posted by rylan View Post
Thats the big risk that Delta management is taking and playing games with. On one hand they don't want to come out slash thresholds by too much and find out that travel rebounded... however by waiting too long pax are going to book away since they know they have no chance of making the spend requirement.

They need to announce something soon, even if it results in more elites qualifying. Fact is business travel and high spend is going to be significantly depressed through the rest of this year and even through 2022.

Maybe they should just extend current status again, but only do the normal rollover past your status to reduce the banked MQM balances.
Just remember that MQMs alone are meaningless without the MQD spend. That is what DL is focused on. I could have 500k MQMs rollover and without any MQDs, I would not re-qualify for DM. If you consider 2021 travel to start up again by 07/01, you would have 6 month to archive the MQD goal. Therefore cutting the requirements to 50% would make the most sense.
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Old Mar 18, 21, 6:52 am
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My opinion is this will be data driven. How many of us will make DM with old rules this year and how many will not. They do not want to cut the ranks too much but do not want to make it too easy. Hence I do not see a decision until likely after July. They will run the numbers and projects and set values. My GUESS is they will do no less than 50% of old DM numbers and make everyone else PM.
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Old Mar 18, 21, 7:00 am
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Originally Posted by hnewman View Post
My opinion is this will be data driven. How many of us will make DM with old rules this year and how many will not. They do not want to cut the ranks too much but do not want to make it too easy. Hence I do not see a decision until likely after July. They will run the numbers and projects and set values. My GUESS is they will do no less than 50% of old DM numbers and make everyone else PM.
While I agree with your assessment, many travelers determine their airline strategy & spend long before July. I have already booked most of my known international trips until the end of the year. Based on the unknown with DL re-qualification changes, many have already shifted their business to airlines that have already announced policy changes for 2022.
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Old Mar 18, 21, 7:06 am
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Originally Posted by Christefan View Post
While I agree with your assessment, many travelers determine their airline strategy & spend long before July. I have already booked most of my known international trips until the end of the year. Based on the unknown with DL re-qualification changes, many have already shifted their business to airlines that have already announced policy changes for 2022.
I agree with your comments. I am sticking with DL given status and irregular OPS. I will most likely make DM spend in September so I am not impacted.
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Old Mar 18, 21, 7:47 pm
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Originally Posted by hnewman View Post
My opinion is this will be data driven. How many of us will make DM with old rules this year and how many will not. .
They will lose close to 90% of DMs under the old rules.
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Old Mar 18, 21, 8:22 pm
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Originally Posted by Christefan View Post
Just remember that MQMs alone are meaningless without the MQD spend. That is what DL is focused on. I could have 500k MQMs rollover and without any MQDs, I would not re-qualify for DM. If you consider 2021 travel to start up again by 07/01, you would have 6 month to archive the MQD goal. Therefore cutting the requirements to 50% would make the most sense.
You are projecting as a DM and forgetting that there is likely a substantial cohort in the lower status levels that qualify for MQD Waiver via Amex spend and don't have to rely on making MQD spend levels. There is likely a large segment of flyers that DL simply can't entice to fly right now either to due to corporate restrictions or Covid fears. They may actually be trying to entice more flyers to hit Amex MQD Waiver as alternative because they can't generate much MQD spend for now. As far as "losing" DM's, I think people are overestimating the number of flyers who will defect in a huff simply because they can't re-earn DM. As a self-selecting population, FTer's likely tend to be more enamored of status than those who aren't on FT.
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Last edited by xliioper; Mar 18, 21 at 8:28 pm
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Old Mar 18, 21, 8:29 pm
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
They will lose close to 90% of DMs under the old rules.
MQMs could even be an issue for some DMs. Not every DM holds a DL AMEX and most of DLs MQM promotions other than the rollover from last year have been targeted from AMEX spend bonuses.
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Old Mar 18, 21, 9:15 pm
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Originally Posted by xliioper View Post
You are projecting as a DM and forgetting that there is likely a substantial cohort in the lower status levels that qualify for MQD Waiver via Amex spend and don't have to rely on making MQD spend levels. There is likely a large segment of flyers that DL simply can't entice to fly right now either to due to corporate restrictions or Covid fears. They may actually be trying to entice more flyers to hit Amex MQD Waiver as alternative because they can't generate much MQD spend for now. As far as "losing" DM's, I think people are overestimating the number of flyers who will defect in a huff simply because they can't re-earn DM. As a self-selecting population, FTer's likely tend to be more enamored of status than those who aren't on FT.
Possible solution is to cut the requirement by 50% (MQM, MQS, MQD), but keep the original Amex waiver (flights have be cut, but not your normal usage for your AMEX).
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Old Mar 18, 21, 11:32 pm
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Pre-Covid didn't DL allow pax to "buy-up" status in Dec., generally for high $ amts. Unless intl. travel resumes FULL BLAST after July I won't be able to stay DM and I guess this will be the case for most other fliers. Maybe a formula where MQM miles can also credit toward MQDs?
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Old Mar 19, 21, 6:27 am
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
They will lose close to 90% of DMs under the old rules.
I've seen this 90% number thrown out a few times. Is there a source behind it or is this just a guess?

I seriously doubt anyone outside DL actually has the data to guage this, and those within DL who have the data are unlikely to be posting it here.
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Old Mar 19, 21, 6:34 am
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Originally Posted by Christefan View Post
Just remember that MQMs alone are meaningless without the MQD spend. That is what DL is focused on. I could have 500k MQMs rollover and without any MQDs, I would not re-qualify for DM. If you consider 2021 travel to start up again by 07/01, you would have 6 month to archive the MQD goal. Therefore cutting the requirements to 50% would make the most sense.
$25,000 AMEX spend or just over $2,000 per month is not a big ask for most people paying their day to day bills for FO, GM or PM.
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Old Mar 19, 21, 6:44 am
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Originally Posted by sydneyracquelle View Post
$25,000 AMEX spend or just over $2,000 per month is not a big ask for most people paying their day to day bills for FO, GM or PM.
I agree that the MQD waiver will work for most FO, GM or PM who will use their rollover MQMs to extend their status for 2022. The DM requirements ($250k AX MQD waiver) on the other hand are what I was focusing on. DL needs to come up with an alternative/soft landing or it will downgrade most DMs in 2022 to PM status.
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Old Mar 19, 21, 7:53 am
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Yeah and it will not be a good thing to have a giant mass of PMs.

At the lower ranks I don't think DL sees much of an issue since FOs (or even GM) don't get upgraded much anyway, and many of them aren't flying much anyway and only have status due to the extension or rollover and Amex spend. The biggest issue will be a massive increase of PMs from both sides - former GM and FO that are hitting PM now due to MQM rollover plus Amex spend, and DMs that cannot make the MQD requirement since there is little to no business travel. Even with vaccinations I don't see international biz recovering this year in a meaningful way.
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Old Mar 19, 21, 8:59 am
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Originally Posted by rylan View Post
Yeah and it will not be a good thing to have a giant mass of PMs.

At the lower ranks I don't think DL sees much of an issue since FOs (or even GM) don't get upgraded much anyway, and many of them aren't flying much anyway and only have status due to the extension or rollover and Amex spend. The biggest issue will be a massive increase of PMs from both sides - former GM and FO that are hitting PM now due to MQM rollover plus Amex spend, and DMs that cannot make the MQD requirement since there is little to no business travel. Even with vaccinations I don't see international biz recovering this year in a meaningful way.
Im pretty excited as a long time FO/GM who should be a PM in 2022 if I have a few flights in the back half of this year (I should have at least two trans cons that get me there) - I have a new role that should lead to more travel in 2022 once things normalize, so I can use the status.
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