david55

So over the last few days I have been playing with Delta flights from Seattle to Athens in First/Delta One mid April 2021. The fares were very high but then a few days ago I found them about $2000 cheaper then the previous week ( a low of $3100RT vs. $5000+.) The last twenty for hours I have been actively researching a trip and checking the flights and the remarkably low prices numerous times.

This morning they were still at $3100RT. Suddenly, a few hours ago, they were back up over $5000.

Did I trigger the price increase by my obsessive searches of this one day and one route? Or was it just coincidence?

MSPeconomist

I'm not sure this is related, but the current survey questions about the DL website include a few at the very end about whether you think the website or app give the lowest prices for DL flights (versus third party sources), whether you think the app and website offer the same fares to everyone, and whether or not you trust the integrity of DL.

xliioper

Unlikely your searches have anything to do with it and just varying bucket availability (there are likely thousands of inventory queries being made regularly from various GDS systems, so the notion that yours in particular would trigger a bucket change is highly unlikely). If you have an EF account, you can see if there any actual changes in fare filings (by using historical ticketing dates). Note that varying your searches by even a day can dramatically vary which fares are available for purchase due to day-of-travel and minimum stay requirements of the cheaper fares. So if you weren't consistent in making searches for exact same days each time, that could also be a source of variability.

There are currently Z fares for $2775 roundtrip on this route (fare basis ZK3X86D2) although they are highly seasonal. Google Flights in calendar view is very useful for finding cheapest fares (as you can quickly page through each month as response is basically immediate) and then you go through to delta.com to see what the fare rules are.

DAY/TIME APPLICATION

OUTBOUND - PERMITTED TUE THROUGH FRI ON EACH TRANSATLANTIC SECTOR. INBOUND - PERMITTED SUN THROUGH THU ON EACH TRANSATLANTIC SECTOR.

SEASONALITY

OUTBOUND - PERMITTED 19JUL 20 THROUGH 18AUG 20 OR 24DEC 20 THROUGH 26DEC 20 OR 01JAN 21 THROUGH 02JAN 21 OR 29MAR 21 THROUGH 31MAR 21 OR 03APR 21 THROUGH 08APR 21 OR 24JUL 21 THROUGH 17AUG 21 OR 10DEC 21 THROUGH 14DEC 21 FOR EACH TRANSATLANTIC SECTOR. INBOUND - PERMITTED 15AUG 20 THROUGH 03SEP 20 OR 25DEC 20 THROUGH 01JAN 21 OR 05JAN 21 THROUGH 08JAN 21 OR 29MAR 21 THROUGH 09APR 21 OR 16AUG 21 THROUGH 03SEP 21 OR 11DEC 21 THROUGH 06JAN 22 FOR EACH TRANSATLANTIC SECTOR.

ADVANCE RESERVATIONS AND TICKETING

RESERVATIONS FOR ALL SECTORS ARE REQUIRED AT LEAST 28 DAYS BEFORE DEPARTURE. TICKETING MUST BE COMPLETED WITHIN 72 HOURS AFTER RESERVATIONS ARE MADE OR AT LEAST 28 DAYS BEFORE DEPARTURE WHICHEVER IS EARLIER.

MINIMUM STAY

TRAVEL FROM TURNAROUND MUST COMMENCE NO EARLIER THAN THE FIRST SUN AFTER ARRIVAL AT TURNAROUND OR - TRAVEL FROM INBOUND TRANSATLANTIC SECTOR MUST COMMENCE NO EARLIER THAN 7 DAYS AFTER DEPARTURE OF THE OUTBOUND TRANSATLANTIC SECTOR.

Cory6188

This hardly makes for empirical evidence, but I have been amazed at how I've seen prices jump all over the place for an itinerary months in advance. I have two weddings to go to next year (as of now, anyway; who knows if they'll happen) - one in MSY in April and one in SLC in September, departing from BDL.

I figured no harm in grabbing flights on miles, since it's free to rebook. Since I booked them two weeks ago, I have seen the prices jump up and down repeatedly (using miles, at least). Clearly there has to be some sort of computer algorithm adjusting things, since I can't imagine anyone is manually doing it, but it's wild to me how volatile the prices have been. What's even weirder is that I've seen things like Main Cabin price at 49K R/T, with Basic at 65K R/T, when the cash price for Basic is the standard ~$70 or so lower than Main. Go figure.

It sure shows that it pays off to grab a fare when you see a good price, and keep checking in case prices drop to get the credit back!

Kacee

Fare prices for a given itinerary are determined by inventory and fare rules. Fares may also change based on demand and competition. But not the number of searches you run.

tardyturtle

I guess the question is whether DL uses the number of searches as a surrogate for demand in their pricing algorithm?

writerguyfl

Speculation Alert!

Although I never worked for an airline, I did work at a hotel as a Revenue Manager. In that position, our hotel was a beta testing site for a new revenue management software for the chain. I was in direct contact with the programmers who were developing the software. I spoke with them 2 to 4 times each week for about 6 months. At least some of the programmers had worked in airline revenue management.

What I was told was that revenue management software works great in "normal" situations. But, it fails rather spectacularly when it runs into a situation it can't understand.

Once our software was up and running, I witnessed that scenario first hand. It would start asking for help (in the form of multiple error messages on the daily/hourly reports) if it didn't know what was happening. For example, if a blizzard shut down our city or the city of one of the major airline hubs, it wouldn't know what to do.

I'm speculating, but I imagine all of the airline revenue management software products have been in a constant state of "confusion" since last March. That confusion is probably the reason why you see major fluctuations in pricing for dates way in the future.

happydad100

No hard evidence, but when we (I'm a small business owner) book a ticket on a route, it seems to trigger the software there is demand on those dates for that route and subsequent tickets (not right then, but the next day) are higher. If no one books that route (and we are still within advance purchase rules) for a few days, prices go back down.