Gig103

So at first I was stoked thinking of having flexibility with DL that has helped me with WN. But then I read the posts about BE vs MC fares and I'm swearing as it seems inevitable now and I don't buy BE.

n7371f

Before everyone continues to rave about the same Scott Kirby that has never once his is career provided a clean, crisp enhancement to the customer without a major give back -- consider this:

We do not know what this no-change-fee policy does to the gap between "regular" economy fares and "basic" economy fares. Does United now start pricing these fares $100 or more apart? That's where my money is.

And it's what Delta's continued to try and do, even during the pandemic, with an ever growing gap in the fare difference between basic and regular. What used to be $20-$40 on Delta can now easily be $60-$75 or more in difference.

Somehow Kirby will find a way to make this neutral and driving a much larger fare premium for a "no change fee" fare is likely. And should Delta copy, you can be darn sure that's how Glen & Co will go about it.

sethb

I've been able to SDC in a fare class that was available but not for sale. I don't see why that can't continue.

But the rules for SDC aren't smart: they won't let me SDC from an oversold flight to a not-quite-sold-out flight because my low fare class isn't available on the latter, even when that decreases their chances of having to pay for denied boarding. (And yes, I've shown up at the airport for the earlier flight I didn't want to have to wake up for, only to have them pay me to take the flight I'd gladly have switched to for free.)

NOLAnwGOLD

Yeah I don't see that the huge change fees can stay given the current environment and if airlines what people not to fly if they are sick, then you need for people to be able to be flexible. For United, it only seems fair since they want to cancel flights at the last minute, so fliers should be able to as well.

I wonder how all these changes will have AMEX and all the fee reimbursement benefits change....

GrayAnderson

I'm inclined to agree with the folks expecting that this will revert in a couple of years (though probably at a more sane level...there have definitely been at least a few cases where customers didn't to cancel out tickets over the years because the residual value wouldn't be worth bothering). I wouldn't be surprised to see some stratification in cancellation timeline if/when fees come back (e.g. assessing a fee at $50 or $100 for cancellation within 3-7 days of a flight) since a "full flexibility" change policy like this...well, the airlines might recoup on closer-in changes being adjusted with buckets.*

Short-term I think this is a lump that the airlines are going to be taking to compete with one another (especially given the risks people have in terms of a trip being rendered unworkable due to a virus outbreak or a change in quarantine rules). This will likely change once load factors balance back out...but the need to discourage people from "speculative bookings" to avoid a "false sellout" (or overbooking and having to reaccommodate) is really not there at the time (and that was part of the underlying "excuse" for those fees).

So let's see...we've got crappy schedules, limited food in the airports, lousy on-board food, and now change fees are probably going away but (non-BE) fares will plausibly rise. It really is turning into the late 70s!

*If I had to guess, what will happen is they might leave some nominal lower-fare-class inventory laying around to accommodate SDCs [i.e. the top half-dozen buckets] but having them at higher fares. Remember that they can assign multiple fare levels to a given fare class.

Keyser

its permanent for now....but nothing stops them from reverting back to change fees in a couple of years....delta has no choice but to follow....both airlines will however think of new ways to make up for lost revenue during this 'permanent' stage....

HDQDD

Airlines have already been doing this for at least 20 years (since I worked in RM). The difference now is that they won’t have the additional “gravy” of the change fee. The industry took in 2.8bil in change fees last year.

ATOBTTR

Not disagreeing completely, but a key point with WN is that WN also *always* collects a fare difference. So if your plans change day of, WN won't charge you a change fee, but you will get hit with a fare difference if you want to change flights, whereas the UA change will allow free standby. DL allows SDC (assuming same fare availability which is hit or miss) and SDS for $50 which is probably far less than the fare difference would be if you confirmed a change outside of the SDC/SDS window. So there are tradeoffs and WN still has ways of collecting money, even with business travelers.

nerdbirdsjc

If the absence of change fees encourages more changes overall (and IMHO, it will), airlines could well collect more revenue overall with a shift to zero change fees. Never forget, institutional inertia is especially severe within airline management offices, so don't assume the pre-COVID status quo was necessarily an optimal setup for Delta (or anyone else).

MCO Flyer

This IMO isn’t really surprising. Even Ed Bastian said before the pandemic hit that change fees could be overhauled within the industry so I assume DL and AA will probably follow. Since business travel is going to be slow for the next few years, this might help to get more leisure pax to pay up from BE to Main Cabin as these fares will now have more ticket flexibility. I assume that DL could make their policy like WNs where you must cancel/change your ticket at least 10 mins prior to your scheduled departure time or risk forfeiting your tickets values to prevent mass no-shows.

Gig103

I agree with you. Pre-covid, the last time I checked flights, I found last minute flights with legacy carriers, departing within a week is usually absurdly high. a day or two change could easily cost $300 more, but at least now it won't be $500 with a change fee.

Often1

Correct.

It will just be a $500 fare difference.

MSPeconomist

This largely happens when the fares in your fare class have an advanced purchase requirement. However, for a no change fee regime, DL still would have an incentive not to offer the lower fare class because there would be people changing their (return) flights where DL would want them to be forced to pay a fare difference for the privilege.

flyerCO

UA already announced BE can pay to upgrade (at least to C+)

UA is allowing standby for all. Per the details I saw, confirmed required having elite status.

flyerCO

Not for their higher fares. Only the lower ones result in fare difference for SDS.