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Has DL Cut too many flights? Analysis and discussion of schedule cuts.

Has DL Cut too many flights? Analysis and discussion of schedule cuts.

Old May 28, 20, 8:51 am
  #46  
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I find this writers monthly review quite good. Here is their take on July's added routes:
https://crankyflier.com/2020/05/28/d...ub-overflying/
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Old May 28, 20, 9:14 am
  #47  
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Some good analysis on that and nice to see some of the adds. Still doesn't help when a route is added though if you can't make a connection because they're all full or the ones that are available are a negative or very long/overnight connection.
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Old May 28, 20, 11:58 am
  #48  
 
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I'd rather DL cut too many and slow the bleed so they can come back stronger than other airlines than have too many flights right now and not be able to sustain success when normalcy returns. But maybe I'm in the minority, my company isn't flying anyone until at least October.
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Old May 28, 20, 12:15 pm
  #49  
 
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Originally Posted by sydneyracquelle View Post
It is virtually impossible to properly predict demand when there are zero penalties for no-shows. A flight with 100 sold seats might only have 20 passengers show at the airport and the other 80 still get a full-value voucher. Meanwhile, DL could have sold 25+ seats to passengers who would have taken the flight. This is clearly unsustainable.
Success of WN fully refundable model (voucher=funds) tells me otherwise ...

DL and other majors took taxpayers money and cut service to bare minimums anyways
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Old May 28, 20, 12:25 pm
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Originally Posted by azepine00 View Post
Success of WN fully refundable model (voucher=funds) tells me otherwise ...

DL and other majors took taxpayers money and cut service to bare minimums anyways
The point was about current travel period when many are not able to fly due to lockdown's, event cancellations, etc. It's absurd to compare it to normal travel periods when no-show rate is far more predictable.
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Old May 28, 20, 12:41 pm
  #51  
 
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Just to add to the anecdotes. Looking at some routes to the Midwest for late June (CLE, CMH, PIT), while Delta shows 1 or two viable "options" its looking like $800 r/t. Even PHX-DTW/ATL there are nonstop options on some days but the prices are pretty astronomical compared to usual.

I realize PHX probably isn't a core market that Delta wants to focus on, but it is a major metro area that is another example of very limited options on Delta. Due to this myself, and several I know that prefer Delta are choosing WN or AA who both have significantly more options available most at normal or slightly below normal pricing.

Lastly, it seems Delta is running a 10-15% of their flights scheduled at 60% capacity... If TSA numbers are tracking around 10-15% and climbing then it is safe to assume that Delta is probably slightly under-capacity. It't not hard to imagine 500k passenger days around the 4th of July IMO, and with Delta's schedule(and United for that matter) I see them leaving some up for grabs market share for AA/WN/B6 etc...
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Old May 28, 20, 12:43 pm
  #52  
 
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Originally Posted by azepine00 View Post
Success of WN fully refundable model (voucher=funds) tells me otherwise ...

DL and other majors took taxpayers money and cut service to bare minimums anyways
WN policy is passenger must notify WN prior to the flight or lose the funds. DL does not require this.
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Old May 28, 20, 12:50 pm
  #53  
 
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Originally Posted by mills1090 View Post
Just to add to the anecdotes. Looking at some routes to the Midwest for late June (CLE, CMH, PIT), while Delta shows 1 or two viable "options" its looking like $800 r/t. Even PHX-DTW/ATL there are nonstop options on some days but the prices are pretty astronomical compared to usual.

I realize PHX probably isn't a core market that Delta wants to focus on, but it is a major metro area that is another example of very limited options on Delta. Due to this myself, and several I know that prefer Delta are choosing WN or AA who both have significantly more options available most at normal or slightly below normal pricing.

Lastly, it seems Delta is running a 10-15% of their flights scheduled at 60% capacity... If TSA numbers are tracking around 10-15% and climbing then it is safe to assume that Delta is probably slightly under-capacity. It't not hard to imagine 500k passenger days around the 4th of July IMO, and with Delta's schedule(and United for that matter) I see them leaving some up for grabs market share for AA/WN/B6 etc...
If you read Cranky Flier's analysis above, you will see DL is adding back significant capacity for July. A Google Flights search shows significantly better availability in July.
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Old May 28, 20, 9:15 pm
  #54  
 
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Wow reading the Delta pilot forum, it sounds like they also believe DL cut way too much and management up until this point has been nothing but gloom and doom.

https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/d...-schedule.html

https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/d...ggressive.html
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Old May 28, 20, 10:14 pm
  #55  
 
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Originally Posted by sydneyracquelle View Post
It is virtually impossible to properly predict demand when there are zero penalties for no-shows. A flight with 100 sold seats might only have 20 passengers show at the airport and the other 80 still get a full-value voucher. Meanwhile, DL could have sold 25+ seats to passengers who would have taken the flight. This is clearly unsustainable.
It takes forever to reach them on the phone.

And their change/cancel tool online doesn’t work. This is all because of all the IT spend they just did, taking functionality away from the website, holding back upgrade info, etc.

DL dug their own grave. DL offered the cancel auto voucher deal knowing that anything else would cost them too much in employee resources with all the additional contact volumes they’d have.
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Old May 28, 20, 10:44 pm
  #56  
 
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At the risk of getting flamed by folks that do not believe anecdotal evidence is directional data, I'll offer my own personal observations. I have needed to travel throughout the pandemic for work (essential employee) and have slowly restarted client travel as my clients and I deem safe and appropriate.

Since the pandemic began and DL scaled their operations back, I have been unable to successful book any DL on the days that I need to travel. Examples:

JAX-MIA - DL no connecting options to MIA. It was FLL or nothing. I drove
FLL-MDT - No flights offered. DL had dropped MDT to 1 flight to DTW daily. I booked on AA via PHL onw way and CLT the other
IAD-JAX - No flights available. I booked on UA

I'm sure someone on here will find days where options are offered, but they were not available when I needed them, hence I could not rely on DL for travel. I am finding I am not have the same issues when trying to book travel on AA or UA so I've just started looking at their options first unless I am expressly heading to a DL hub. I'm sure that DL has run the number and determined that their approach is what's best for them. The thing is that if DL does cut too far and they drive business to their competitors they may not get that business back.
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Old May 29, 20, 2:46 am
  #57  
 
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Very nice article posted above outlining the route additions/resumptions for July.

While I am very happy to see some service returning to ANC, I admit I am a bit skeptical it sticks around... especially if the current 14 day quarantine is not lifted in June.

Looks like ANC-ATL will be starting 3x weekly (Thurs, Fri, Sat) in July. Hasn't run at all this summer and I honestly didn't think it would.

ANC-MSP returning 2x daily in July (usually 1x daily year round and 3x daily in summer). Surprised they are going with 2x daily... but I'll take it!

So many of the pre-existing bookings from the cancelled ATL/MSP/SLC service, as well as the reduced SEA service, was pushed over to our now 3x daily SEA flights (up from 1-2x daily when the virus peak hit, but usually 6-8x daily in the summer) that it has created severe inventory options to fly into ANC. And based on my recent flights in/out of ANC, they are "full" based on current cabin capacity limits.
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Old May 29, 20, 7:54 am
  #58  
 
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When will DL update skeds? Has this already happened?
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Old May 29, 20, 8:04 am
  #59  
 
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Originally Posted by TPAtoAnywhere View Post
When will DL update skeds? Has this already happened?
DL usually updates schedules on Saturdays.
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Old May 29, 20, 3:09 pm
  #60  
 
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Here's another interesting article that shows Delta has cancelled too many flights with many routes already sold out through June.

https://pointsmilesandmartinis.board...dding-flights/
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