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Report: Delta considering trading 717s to Boeing for 737MAX jets

Report: Delta considering trading 717s to Boeing for 737MAX jets

Old Apr 23, 2020, 4:42 pm
  #76  
 
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Originally Posted by StayingHomeIsBetter
If there are DL 737MAXs at some point in the future, I won't be flying them.
In that case, your username may double as the right strategy here, given that every major airline in the US will be flying the MAX if Delta buys them.
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Old Apr 23, 2020, 4:49 pm
  #77  
 
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Originally Posted by sleuth
If the MAX were perfectly stable, it would have been launched without a system that no other 737 variant has ever needed.
I believe the argument has progressed to semantics.

"Stability" has a specific meaning when used regarding aircraft aerodynamics. The stability of the MAX is within applicable certification requirements without considering the effects of MCAS.

(The MAX is actually MORE stable than the NG is the Flaps-40 landing configuration due to the application of fly-by-wire spoilers which is new to the MAX. This allows the Flaps-40 setting to be the normal landing configuration on the MAX instead of Flaps-30 as in the NG. The result is a landing speed, for most landings, around 8 knots slower than it would be in an NG)

The issue that required MCAS has to do with a certification requirement for the elevator pitch forces to increase proportionally as the aircraft's angle-of-attack (AoA) increases. In short, this means that as you increase the AoA, the input force (pull) on the yoke required to continue to increase the AoA increases in a linear fashion. The larger engine nacelles, which are farther forward of the aircraft's center-of-gravity (CG) than on the NG, produce a nose-up pitching moment at higher AoAs. This nose-up pitching moment from the nacelles counters the naturally increasing nose-down force that occurs as AoA increases in such a way that the required increase in pilot input force isn't achieved. i.e. the nose does not become 'heavy' enough during very high AoA conditions. MCAS was designed to restore the required control feel through the introduction of additional nose-down moment through the application of nose-down stabilizer trim. The very high AoAs that would require MCAS input are not encountered in normal operations.

Since this required proportion increase in control force wasn't sufficient, the aircraft was not certifiable without MCAS, even as a non-common type to the NG.
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Old Apr 23, 2020, 6:06 pm
  #78  
 
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Originally Posted by sleuth
If the MAX were perfectly stable, it would have been launched without a system that no other 737 variant has ever needed.
That's...that's not what MCAS does. It compensates for increased lift from the nacelles at high AoA which made the stick input non-linear and makes it linear. That does NOT mean that the aircraft was inherently aerodynamically unstable.

I'm not even sure what "perfectly stable" means. It's certainly not a term I've ever seen in years of studying or working in aerospace.
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Old Apr 23, 2020, 11:54 pm
  #79  
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Originally Posted by SJC ORD LDR
Do they even need something as big as a 321 anymore? Maybe they could order the 320NEO or more 220s, but I think a 321 will be too much plane for a long time.
Yes, if they order A321XLR or A223. They could be replace MD88 or 757 aircraft. Yes, as long if they order A321XLR. Only for TATL flight or Hawaii flight.
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Old Apr 23, 2020, 11:59 pm
  #80  
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Originally Posted by BenA
The Airbus orders were already slotted in to replace previously planned retirements. Because of COVID-19, Delta has rapidly retired many more aircraft than they were planning on, and that trend is likely to continue. When the market recovers, they'll need lots more narrowbody capacity unless they plan to bring back airplanes from the desert.

Don't forget Delta also has a lot of 20-year old 737-800s that are getting on up there in years; a smaller 737MAX8 sized replacement could be perfect for those.
Originally Posted by GW McLintock
United operates (operated? will operate?) the MAX 9 and recently put in an order for the A321XLR. Where that stands since the downturn, I don't know, but it was an example of a mixed fleet. Each plane serves a (slightly) different purpose. I'm sure DL could make it work as well.

-J.
You guys all make very good points. I'm just taking my opinions from Ed coming out publicly and internally saying that the MAX is not an option at this point, although this of course was before this whole COVID-19 mess. I totally forgot to about some of the 738's (and A320's of course) getting up there in age. I know the older A319's and A320's have become hangar queens.

I'm more curious to see why they turned on the 717 so fast. They had plans to keep them in the fleet at least until the end of the decade and were even planning on throwing PTV's in them, so I really am wondering if this is just speculation or if Boeing can give them a fantastic deal that they would be stupid not to take. I enjoy the 717 because some of the routes they serve would normally be served by us (regional) on Delta Connection CRJ's or E175's. The 717 has allowed them to throw more mainline service at airports that can't handle an A319 or 737. I'm not even sure they know at this point but I'm definitely interested to see Delta's fleet strategy at the end of this.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 2:38 am
  #81  
 
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Originally Posted by ethernal
If there is a trade happening, it's the opposite of what you think.. terminating the lease obligations (which is a real ongoing cashflow expense Delta has to pay every month/quarter) in return for commitment for purchases in the future would be the deal that is happening here - Delta is basically paying Boeing to terminate the lease, not the other way around. I love the 717s but they are a dead-end airframe not worth more than scrap to Boeing when repossessed.

That said, Boeing is barely in a better cashflow position than Delta so I'm somewhat skeptical of this deal. Then again, perhaps Boeing believes the large confidence boost from a big 737MAX order from Delta would outweigh the small cashflow value of the 717 leases.
Speculation on my part, but it is entirely possible that Boeing is worried about mass cancellations from lease companies (who might be in deep trouble before too long) and this is an attempt to turn some of those orders into a transfer (at a deep discount) rather than a cancellation. Another possibility is that this is part of some game of musical chairs to get "vaporware" sales that Boeing is having to pay customers for transferred around (they wouldn't have to pay Delta, in all likelihood). I don't know about payment schedules and whatnot on large airplane orders, but have other airlines put down advance deposits on their orders? An airline that's in trouble getting too "bail out" on an order they're desperately trying not to have to pay for finding a new home for the order, forfeiting part or all of a deposit, and Delta picking up the wreckage seems plausible.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 6:07 am
  #82  
 
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Please no. The less 737's the better. The 737 is truly a "narrowbody"
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 6:13 am
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Originally Posted by FlyEndeavorAir
You guys all make very good points. I'm just taking my opinions from Ed coming out publicly and internally saying that the MAX is not an option at this point, although this of course was before this whole COVID-19 mess. I totally forgot to about some of the 738's (and A320's of course) getting up there in age. I know the older A319's and A320's have become hangar queens.

I'm more curious to see why they turned on the 717 so fast. They had plans to keep them in the fleet at least until the end of the decade and were even planning on throwing PTV's in them, so I really am wondering if this is just speculation or if Boeing can give them a fantastic deal that they would be stupid not to take. I enjoy the 717 because some of the routes they serve would normally be served by us (regional) on Delta Connection CRJ's or E175's. The 717 has allowed them to throw more mainline service at airports that can't handle an A319 or 737. I'm not even sure they know at this point but I'm definitely interested to see Delta's fleet strategy at the end of this.
I would be sad to lose the 717's for exactly the reason you stated. There are many places were the alternative will be a CRJ or E175.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 6:32 am
  #84  
 
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Originally Posted by mattp1987
I'm not even sure what "perfectly stable" means. It's certainly not a term I've ever seen in years of studying or working in aerospace.
I think it is something like a big balloon filled with air. You know, like the Hindenberg
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 7:59 am
  #85  
 
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Originally Posted by GrayAnderson
Speculation on my part, but it is entirely possible that Boeing is worried about mass cancellations from lease companies (who might be in deep trouble before too long) and this is an attempt to turn some of those orders into a transfer (at a deep discount) rather than a cancellation. Another possibility is that this is part of some game of musical chairs to get "vaporware" sales that Boeing is having to pay customers for transferred around (they wouldn't have to pay Delta, in all likelihood). I don't know about payment schedules and whatnot on large airplane orders, but have other airlines put down advance deposits on their orders? An airline that's in trouble getting too "bail out" on an order they're desperately trying not to have to pay for finding a new home for the order, forfeiting part or all of a deposit, and Delta picking up the wreckage seems plausible.
I don't disagree as cancellations are incredibly likely. On the flip side, Boeing is way behind on their order book since they had to shut down production and it will take a long time to ramp it back up - they're hundreds of planes behind where they "should" be. So the question is really whether or not the cancellations will be greater than their big backlog. The answer is probably yes but it is not obvious given the number of airframes Boeing is behind on.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 9:26 am
  #86  
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Originally Posted by BenA
The system was there to save airlines money in pilot training costs by simulating the behavior of a different airframe. This was probably a bad idea, in retrospect, but it doesn't mean the system was necessary for the aircraft to fly - just that it was necessary to get a single type rating with the 737NG.
NG production only stopped in January; why not stop the MAX, resume 738 production until a clean-sheet new airplane is ready?
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 10:19 am
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Originally Posted by DenverBrian
NG production only stopped in January; why not stop the MAX, resume 738 production until a clean-sheet new airplane is ready?

Because it wouldnt sell and theres no reason to.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 12:59 pm
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Originally Posted by Newman55
Because it wouldnt sell and theres no reason to.
Also, the amount of effort needed to restart NG production would far exceed the amount of effort needed to fix the certification issues with the MAX.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 1:29 pm
  #89  
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Originally Posted by BenA
Also, the amount of effort needed to restart NG production would far exceed the amount of effort needed to fix the certification issues with the MAX.
Except they keep finding certification issues beyond MCAS. Like wiring.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 1:33 pm
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Originally Posted by mattp1987
I'm not sure who you're referring to specifically, but there are quite a few of us on here with (often multiple) aerospace/aeronautical engineering degrees and years of experience in industry/academia/military applications.
and also don't forget quite a few on here also slept at a Holiday Inn Express recently too... especially the IHG Forum frequenters...
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