Which DL Hub is Taking the Worst Hit From COVID-19?
 

I'm flying through ATL this Sunday and it got me to thinking about which DL hub is taking worst hit from volume declines associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Does anyone know of have you seen any numbers that speak to the impact on the various hubs?

As a percentage of passengers (and possibly flights)? f I had to guess - JFK given its heavy international focus. With the international flights gone, a lot of smaller feeder flights no longer make sense at all. O&D inside of LGA perimeter rule can be served by LGA with only O&D outside of the perimeter likely subsisting.

This assumes that the slot restrictions have been waived which I am sure they have.

In terms of absolute flights/passengers, I am sure ATL is taking the heaviest blow but that is just an artifact of its incredible scale being more than twice as large as Delta's next largest hub.

NY or SEA most likely.

I was at ATL yesterday at 3pm. No one there. Felt like 3am or right after 9/11.

Probably hard to tell from the inside but does it look like they've shuttered any concourses?

MSP isn't a designated airport for International arrivals and health checks, so we're losing ICN, LHR, CDG, and AMS routes. Only HND remains and its frequency has been reduced.

Most of our wide body aircraft have flown away to be parked in the sun.

Remarkably Delta appears to still be running the full schedule at CVG, sans CVG-CDG and YYZ.

I'm rather shocked that they didn't go down to just hubs during the last schedule load.

Never mind - misread

They are keeping most of the destinations, but are clearly reducing many schedules. They are phasing in the actual schedule cuts and are zero'ing out flights which they plan to cut. Here's a comparison of daily flights available for purchase on March 23rd vs. April 6th (both Mondays). CVG-DCA, CVG-JFK, CVG-RDU, CVG-SEA and some of the Florida routes are about the only ones that have been spared from reductions. This also doesn't reflect some additional reductions on weekends.

CVG-BOS 4x 2x
CVG-LGA 6x 4x
CVG-EWR 3x 2x
CVG-BWI 3x 2x
CVG-CLT 3x 2x
CVG-DTW 5x 4x
CVG-MSP 5x 4x
CVG-ATL 8x 7x
CVG-MCO 3x 2x
CVG-STL 2x 1x
CVG-MCI 2x (Sunday only)
CVG-ORD 4x 3x
CVG-DEN 1x 5x weekly
CVG-SLC 2x 1x
CVG-LAS 1x 5x weekly
CVG-SFO 1x 4x weekly
CVG-LAX 2x 6x weekly

I was there at 2 pm Sunday. And totally agree it was reminiscent of the first day of flights at ATL after 9/11 (minus the machine gun toting National Guard patrolling the terminal). I did a terminal walk (A-E) for exercise. All escalators operational...and people using them. Also, people continuing on the plane train to F. So I presume it was also operational.

The B Sky Club was very quiet. Bartenders as surly and disinterested as is the norm. Still serving food via buffet :eek:. Flight home to LAS, according to the FA had 144 open seats. 51 on my flight out of BNA to ATL.

I think some of the smaller international flights between MSP and Mexico, the Caribbean, and Canada are still running. But it’s a huge reduction to lose those wide body flights to and from Asia and Europe. The Icelandair flights will also have been suspended since Iceland is part of the Schengen area.

MSP is going to start loosing domestic flights starting next week

SEA is picking up the slack from Asia since MSP can no longer take most international flights. I would say NY and MSP are the hardest hit right now, MSP not getting designated international airport status has to hurt them.

Domestically, SEA is seeing some cuts for April

SEA-MCO is pretty much cut for most of April, was scheduled for daily
SEA-PSP/TUS also look cancelled for April (was 1-2x daily)
SEA-LAS getting trimmed from 6x -> 4-5x daily
SEA-DEN 4x -> 3x daily
SEA-SAN 5x -> 4x daily
SEA-SFO 6x -> 5x daily
SEA-SJC 6x -> 4x daily
SEA-LAX 9x -> 7x daily
SEA-BOI 7x -> 6x daily

They'll probably cancel more flights close in to avoid giving people refunds.

I noted this in a separate thread, but DL seems to be beginning to adjust faring a bit, probably in line with this.

I'm guessing that Delta is reticent to reduce flights too far, if only to avoid either having to re-establish schedules later or start losing connectivity.