Thanksgiving travel Fare Games?

Old Mar 4, 20, 12:56 pm
  #1  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Programs: Hilton honors Diamond
Posts: 16
Thanksgiving travel Fare Games?

Looking for some help from the experts here, I am trying to book JFK to SXM or JFK to SKB 11/21-11/28 and all classes are only on sale as Refundable ticket types ($2231 for economy).

I noticed that delta has the same pricing in place for Xmas travel to the Caribbean as well.

can someone advise when you think other fare codes will be placed on sale?
edr1971 is offline  
Old Mar 4, 20, 1:50 pm
  #2  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,708
Seeing DL2103/DL551 for 11/21 - 11/28 with U bucket available outbound, H return (UNNC0NMX/HNNA0WMV fares) for $1075 total. These are non-refundable fares. These are high demand dates and the U bucket on the outbound is already a lower fare class (only 1 seat left in that bucket and if buying more than 1 tix you will be bumped up to slightly higher K fare). They might release some inventory in buckets lower than H for return, but I wouldn't get my hopes up. The cheapest main cabin fares on this route (XNNJ0NMX) would be $715 roundtrip if you get those in both directions. But due to demand, I'd be pretty confident they will not be releasing X inventory for those dates. You can currently get it for 11/14 - 11/21, but the demand for those dates will be much lower than over Thanksgiving break.

Last edited by xliioper; Mar 4, 20 at 2:00 pm
xliioper is online now  
Old Mar 4, 20, 2:14 pm
  #3  
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: SEA
Programs: DL DM, Marriott Amb./LTP
Posts: 279
Using the Coronavirus waiver, is there anything preventing you (or anyone) from finding the cheapest 7-day trip between now and Feb. 25, 2021, and then do a change to the dates in November that you want?
13thandseven is offline  
Old Mar 4, 20, 2:33 pm
  #4  
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: San Francisco
Programs: DL DM
Posts: 104
Originally Posted by 13thandseven View Post
Using the Coronavirus waiver, is there anything preventing you (or anyone) from finding the cheapest 7-day trip between now and Feb. 25, 2021, and then do a change to the dates in November that you want?
I think there has to be a seat in the same fare class on the rescheduled flight as for the original flight, or the customer pays the difference in fare. This is how the Delta agent described how it works to me on the phone yesterday.
ethernal likes this.
GeminisTwin is offline  
Old Mar 4, 20, 3:04 pm
  #5  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Programs: AA
Posts: 11,049
I really think you are just looking way too early for Thanksgiving and Christmas travel.
wrp96 is offline  
Old Mar 4, 20, 4:59 pm
  #6  
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: ANC
Programs: DL PM
Posts: 954
This is just a fact when traveling over the holidays. While there is a chance inventory in a lower fare bucket may be released closer to travel, there is also a chance it will not. Last year my spouse booked a trip over Christmas about 6 months out. It was in high fare classes (H, B, or M). I checked weekly up until departure and never saw anything cheaper. So, once you see a price you are willing to pay... book it. Sure, it may come down, but it might go up.
GagaPilot is offline  
Old Mar 4, 20, 5:24 pm
  #7  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Programs: Hilton honors Diamond
Posts: 16
Thanks for info on SKB flights. If you look at SXM flights Y refundable comes up as cheapest. The entire plane is empty yes it might be early but does that mean that they won’t sell any discounted fares at all?

edr1971 is offline  
Old Mar 4, 20, 5:54 pm
  #8  
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Programs: DL DM, MM; Marriott Plat
Posts: 395
I started looking at Thanksgiving week fares in May last year and booked in August. Same high fare classes and prices both months. Periodic checks until departure did not show any drops, and yes the plane was totally empty in May and had less than a dozen seats sold in August. As GagaPilot said, DL knows they will sell out the planes at these prices or higher since that is when people feel they have travel. Do not expect lower fares for the holidays as time goes by.
Paplover is offline  
Old Mar 4, 20, 6:25 pm
  #9  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,708
There's H bucket available on 11/21 JFK-SXM flight and M on 11/28 SXM-JFK, but there are no BMH fare filings, so all that's available to book are full Y. They might open some inventory in lower fare buckets at some point, but no one can tell you when and the airlines obviously do not want to make these things predictable as eventually someone would start figuring out the patterns. It's possible, but I doubt you will see JFK-SXM get down to the price point of the $1075 JFK-SKB fares. FYI, there is V bucket available (the lowest fare class) for the SXM-JFK flight on 12/25. 12/25, not surprisingly, is a very slow travel demand day and the airlines tend to open up inventory on those flights compared to other dates around the holidays.

Last edited by xliioper; Mar 4, 20 at 6:31 pm
xliioper is online now  
Old Mar 4, 20, 6:53 pm
  #10  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: UA US CO AA DL FL
Posts: 50,005
Nobody, including the head of DL's RM/IM could tell you whether lower fare buckets will be released. If DL can sell those flights at the higher fares, it will do so. If it can't, it will open lower fare buckets.

Whether that happens is unknown, particularly in light of the COVID-19 situation. But, as a general matter, lower fares won't open until roughly 90 days out. But, on the other hand, maybe the flights will be sold out and there won't be any availability.

One of the things to consider this year is that unlike during the financial crisis when DL chopped its fares to sell seats, DL (and other carriers) will use smaller aircraft and chop frequencies to reduce supply if it comes to that.
Often1 is offline  
Old Mar 4, 20, 6:53 pm
  #11  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Programs: Hilton honors Diamond
Posts: 16
Thanks all, United is 50% cheaper and waiting on JetBlue fares so we will see what occurs. They all fly the sxm route direct from NYC
edr1971 is offline  
Old Mar 5, 20, 7:37 am
  #12  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 11,344
Originally Posted by xliioper View Post
There's H bucket available on 11/21 JFK-SXM flight and M on 11/28 SXM-JFK, but there are no BMH fare filings, so all that's available to book are full Y. They might open some inventory in lower fare buckets at some point, but no one can tell you when and the airlines obviously do not want to make these things predictable as eventually someone would start figuring out the patterns. It's possible, but I doubt you will see JFK-SXM get down to the price point of the $1075 JFK-SKB fares. FYI, there is V bucket available (the lowest fare class) for the SXM-JFK flight on 12/25. 12/25, not surprisingly, is a very slow travel demand day and the airlines tend to open up inventory on those flights compared to other dates around the holidays.
This is standard for routes like JFK-SXM which have a good number of absurdly wealthy New Yorkers traveling on a set schedule who might just buy in advance anyway. If they don't sell the seats they'll drop the price eventually, but not this far out.
findark is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Search Engine: