NMA/797 Delay and Delta's Future Fleet
#17
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With today’s aircraft I would agree with you. But older well-built aircraft generally aged much more slowly. DL has consistently kept older aircraft around longer than many other airlines because of their superior maintenance and rehab of old frames. DL is replacing some 757s but has continually stated they are more interested in a proper 757 and 767 replacement aircraft.
#18
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This was at a time when no one was really buying airplanes as well. But, they couldn't afford to keep the tooling around if they weren't making any airplanes. This might become a very short sighted move by Boeing. To make a version of the 757 with a LEAP engine would take very little modification. As we all know now, the changes to the 737 to accommodate these engines has proven to be very problematic and could potentially be fatal to Boeing going forward.
#19
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This was at a time when no one was really buying airplanes as well. But, they couldn't afford to keep the tooling around if they weren't making any airplanes. This might become a very short sighted move by Boeing. To make a version of the 757 with a LEAP engine would take very little modification. As we all know now, the changes to the 737 to accommodate these engines has proven to be very problematic and could potentially be fatal to Boeing going forward.
#20
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Look at a regional map of Stuttgart and the automobile manufacturers located in the area. Now look at a regional map of Atlanta and the automobile manufacturing plants, suppliers, distribution facilities, and North American headquarters located in the area. I think that it is highly unlikely that ATL-STR goes away in the foreseeable future.
I wondered 8-9 years ago why Boeing didn't re-spool up the 757 line with some modern updates. It was a plane before it's time, but as soon as it's time really arrived they stopped making it!
A 757neo wouldn't have taken all that long to get going, and they would have been able to slowly and methodically build a full 797 replacement instead of rushing things like stretching the 737 again after 739's had a well known tail strike issue from being stretched so far!
So even if the MAX issues still happened, Boeing would be right about now be able to roll off the new 797's. And at that point they could probably shrink it to replace the MAX's and have a far less of a PR nightmare.
A 757neo wouldn't have taken all that long to get going, and they would have been able to slowly and methodically build a full 797 replacement instead of rushing things like stretching the 737 again after 739's had a well known tail strike issue from being stretched so far!
So even if the MAX issues still happened, Boeing would be right about now be able to roll off the new 797's. And at that point they could probably shrink it to replace the MAX's and have a far less of a PR nightmare.
At the time Boeing shut down the 757 line (2005 IIRC) most of Delta's 757s weren't even close to 20 years old.
This was at a time when no one was really buying airplanes as well. But, they couldn't afford to keep the tooling around if they weren't making any airplanes. This might become a very short sighted move by Boeing. To make a version of the 757 with a LEAP engine would take very little modification. As we all know now, the changes to the 737 to accommodate these engines has proven to be very problematic and could potentially be fatal to Boeing going forward.
and a 40-42K engine is outside of the GE/Sanfran Joint venture, so they can't just "make a 757 with a LEAP"
#21
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And yet my past predictions have been correct. There is no reason Airbus can't replace the remainder of the fleet. Delta simply uses Boeing as a bargaining chip. The only way I could see them ever ordering another Boeing is if Airbus gets too cocky or Boeing sells them at or below production cost. I don't think either are likely.
#22
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I don't think I've seen you predict anything right. Care to clarify?
The only thing you might have gotten right is the A321NEO order, which has been explained to you 100 times that the order was won due to Pratt not Airbus and yet you still run with the "Delta HATES Boeing" rhetoric. I do remember the fact you couldn't understand why billions of dollars in MRO revenue would matter when buying airplanes.
Other than math and making a complete turn around from what the airline has been doing.
With growth you are talking about ~85-100 frames a year. I'm not even sure Airbus has the slots or the slower produced aircraft (220/330/350) could even do that. Not to mention it goes completely against capital expenditure plans. Even with a pretty aggressive schedule to replace the MD88 and MD90 that kind of money or delivery rate hasn't been hit by a single OEM at Delta.
The only thing you might have gotten right is the A321NEO order, which has been explained to you 100 times that the order was won due to Pratt not Airbus and yet you still run with the "Delta HATES Boeing" rhetoric. I do remember the fact you couldn't understand why billions of dollars in MRO revenue would matter when buying airplanes.
There is no reason Airbus can't replace the remainder of the fleet. Delta simply uses Boeing as a bargaining chip. The only way I could see them ever ordering another Boeing is if Airbus gets too cocky or Boeing sells them at or below production cost. I don't think either are likely.
With growth you are talking about ~85-100 frames a year. I'm not even sure Airbus has the slots or the slower produced aircraft (220/330/350) could even do that. Not to mention it goes completely against capital expenditure plans. Even with a pretty aggressive schedule to replace the MD88 and MD90 that kind of money or delivery rate hasn't been hit by a single OEM at Delta.
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#25
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That's a lot different than saying there would be a compelling case for buying a new version of it.
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If Boeing had produced a 757NG then United would have ordered it instead of the A321XLR. But Boeing had nothing to offer in that size category. The only consolation was that they were finally able to use the deposits for their 4x deferred A350 order. It's silly to think airlines would reject a 757NG if it was available and wait in line for 5+ years for an A321 production slot. Both A and B would have a normal production timeline.
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If Boeing had produced a 757NG then United would have ordered it instead of the A321XLR. But Boeing had nothing to offer in that size category. The only consolation was that they were finally able to use the deposits for their 4x deferred A350 order. It's silly to think airlines would reject a 757NG if it was available and wait in line for 5+ years for an A321 production slot. Both A and B would have a normal production timeline.
#29
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The A300 was replaced with what? There is no aircraft currently in that market segment.
#30
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If Boeing had produced a 757NG then United would have ordered it instead of the A321XLR. But Boeing had nothing to offer in that size category. The only consolation was that they were finally able to use the deposits for their 4x deferred A350 order. It's silly to think airlines would reject a 757NG if it was available and wait in line for 5+ years for an A321 production slot. Both A and B would have a normal production timeline.
I'd also love to know how you know for a fact United (or any other operator) would have ordered a 757NG?
What extra weight? It’s a larger aircraft sure but it also carries more passengers a longer distance than any comparable Boeing replacement. An NG version could easily shed some weight.
The A300 was replaced with what? There is no aircraft currently in that market segment.
The A300 was replaced with what? There is no aircraft currently in that market segment.
the ~30,000lbs OEW over the 739ER would be my guess.
The A300 was replaced by the 739/321 on the bottom end and 767/330 on the top end. The market doesn't need or want every single seat class covered. Sure there might be a few airlines who want something A300 like but its a pretty big assumption there is enough demand for something that size that would be profitable.