Tedgrrrr

Trying to decide whether to use GUC tomorrow.

Phone rep let it slip that C+ is oversold by "more than 10" on my international flight tomorrow. It looks as though there are at least 9 D1 seats available based on that many being available for purchase on the app. What happens to those who are oversold in C+. Do they get op-ups to D1? Or do they get downgraded to main cabin? Main cabin looks pretty empty from seat map (yes yes, I know that is not accurate) - but let's assume there is room in main cabin.

I don't want to burn GUC if there is a chance of op-up

MSPeconomist

How many tickets in what fare classes is DL willing to sell in coach? (Try to check EF.) Coach can be full despite the seat map looking empty.

What's the route? Thursday is often a pretty heavy travel day, but people might be booking away from France due to the strike and seeking other routings on DL/KLM if it's TATL.

Tedgrrrr

JNB - vaguely recall there being PS on the flight when I booked, so I think it's an equipment swap since that is gone.

MSPeconomist

If C+ is overbooked because of people downgraded from PS, I would expect them to be near the top of the list for OPUPs, if necessary, especially if they have high status and/or expensive tickets.

Tedgrrrr

Agreed, but what if they are C+ like me? I think the 777 with PS has wayyyyyyyy more C+ seats than the pre-modification one.

TTT

FWIW - here are the loads for 5 December ATL-JNB:
J9 C9 D9 I9 Z9 W0 S0 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 K9 L9 U9 T9 X9 V9 E9

The seat map shows 2 C+ seats available for selection.

Tedgrrrr

Thanks - I wonder if i was misinformed? Though your data doesn't show oversells right? And it does show 0 in W and 0 in S. So at a minimum C+ is sold out.

TTT

Doesn't show oversells. Simply shows what Delta is willing to sell.

They aren't willing to sell any more C+ seats as it's either full or oversold. Probably doesn't apply here but they could close C+ buckets if they hoped to oversell coach too even if there were available C+ seats.

Looking at the numbers and what you were told it's possible they oversold C+ by 10 thinking that they won't sell J completely.

Tedgrrrr

Thanks - I don't know that I agree with you though about overselling C+ by 10, because it seems to me as though those spots would automatically go to Diamonds and Plats at time of booking? I don't think they can oversell C+ without clearing us into C+?

But so what is your guess? That the C+ people will end up in D1? (let's assume Premium Select people don't exist or have already been re-accomodated)

bubbashow

I'd personally burn the GUC. Don't take a risk with a flight that long

TTT

There are now separate upgrade buckets for C+ (SU) which don't necessarily correspond to inventory for sale. In other words, like First Class Delta may sell a C+ seat even if there is a PM/DM waiting to select it.

I don't really have a guess in this situation. JNB is notoriously hard to upgrade on so if you have a GUC to use this is a good route to use it on and it looks like you have good odds tomorrow. If it were me I would list the GUC vs. holding out for an OP-UP that may or may not happen.

Tedgrrrr

I can guarantee though that I will be able to use the GUC on a 12 or 13 hour flight though before it expires. I have at least 3 roundtrips planned which will be in C+ , and so I'm not worried about losing the GUCs. There is no way that i will be 0 for 6 lol

So if y'all were to say that there is even a 30% chance (hell maybe even 15 or 20%) of an op-up in light of what is known, i'd rather roll the dice and save it.

Zorak

Indeed, FR24 is showing DL200 on the 5th as being operated by N709DN which is not one of the refurb 777s with D1 suites.

PV_Premier

There is almost always a chance of an op-up, theoretically. No one can accurately say what that chance is until quite close to the flight time. Even then, presumably, people who PAID for a C+ seat will be first listed for an op-up to PS, then to J. Paid PS passengers or those upgraded into PS with a cert/miles, will op-up to J first. Then, C+ upgrades based on status will come next for op-ups to PS first, then J. This all assumes that the letter of the law is followed, which is not always a guarantee. It's easier for a gate agent to relieve the oversell by just grabbing X number of people from C+ and moving them to J versus completely reshuffling PS and J, but you never know.

If you list with a GUC, you're quite likely, if not almost certain, to get the upgrade in the present inventory scenario. If you play chicken with the system, the odds are not likely in your favor, but it could happen.

Tedgrrrr

I didn't pay for C+. And, remember there is no PS on this flight. I'm thinking no diamond or plat in their right mind would pay C+ on international - and I would be pretty upset if a non-status person (or even a gold or silver) who paid $200 more got an OpUp to D1 before a Diamond (with almost 200k) and 6 paid D1 trips in 2019.

Currently the app is showing $3078 to upgrade to D1 from C+