Delta buying 20% stake in LATAM

Old Sep 27, 19, 2:58 pm
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Think about JFK-SCL-AKL!
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Old Sep 27, 19, 2:58 pm
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Originally Posted by GrayAnderson View Post
I mentioned this over in the AA forum, but I really do wonder what this means for the future of Miami. Historically that has been an AA hub.

The other big thing is that, alongside a statement on HFB that VS will be joining SkyTeam...it seems like SkyTeam morphing into a "Delta equity partner alliance" is bordering on inevitable.
I guess we've always known that some (alliance) members are more equal than others.
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Old Sep 27, 19, 3:57 pm
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Originally Posted by GrayAnderson View Post
I mentioned this over in the AA forum, but I really do wonder what this means for the future of Miami. Historically that has been an AA hub.

The other big thing is that, alongside a statement on HFB that VS will be joining SkyTeam...it seems like SkyTeam morphing into a "Delta equity partner alliance" is bordering on inevitable.
I doubt MIA is going anywhere for AA. MIA has a slightly higher population than ATL. Its obviously not as well suited for domestic connections, but it's still the best strategic hub for much of Latin America. They may face some more pressure from DL/LA but if they decide to de-hub MIA because they lost a partner carrier, then DP should be fired before the ink dries on that memo.
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Old Sep 27, 19, 4:05 pm
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Originally Posted by kop84 View Post
I doubt MIA is going anywhere for AA. MIA has a slightly higher population than ATL. Its obviously not as well suited for domestic connections, but it's still the best strategic hub for much of Latin America. They may face some more pressure from DL/LA but if they decide to de-hub MIA because they lost a partner carrier, then DP should be fired before the ink dries on that memo.
I agree that MIA ainít going anywhere and is the premier South American hub (I donít think it as comparatively well-positioned for Mexico), both by geography as well as economic and cultural ties. But, I do think the poor positioning as a domestic hub hurts. Also, Atlanta is a slightly smaller market by population but is a fair bit wealthier.
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Old Sep 27, 19, 4:36 pm
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Originally Posted by pbarnette View Post
I agree that MIA ainít going anywhere and is the premier South American hub (I donít think it as comparatively well-positioned for Mexico), both by geography as well as economic and cultural ties. But, I do think the poor positioning as a domestic hub hurts. Also, Atlanta is a slightly smaller market by population but is a fair bit wealthier.
However, there's a lot of $ from Latin America parked in and around MIA, from second homes, to bank accounts, and what not, not to mention that for whatever reason, it is a big vacation and shopping destination for those from South America.
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Old Sep 27, 19, 5:30 pm
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Originally Posted by Eastbay1K View Post
However, there's a lot of $ from Latin America parked in and around MIA, from second homes, to bank accounts, and what not, not to mention that for whatever reason, it is a big vacation and shopping destination for those from South America.
Shopping-wise, there are a lot of things that are cheap and easy to find in the USA that are extremely expensive or impossible to find back home, and it's not just luxury goods either- seems common for the folks I know with South American relatives to end up making big shopping stops at places like Walmart and Target when their extended family is in town.

And in terms of real estate, South Florida has long been a 'safe haven' for affluent folks from somewhat unstable places in the region who wanted a good place to land if conditions at home got weird. It's the same human movement later seen with Hong Kong residents moving to Vancouver when they were concerned about the changeover or affluent Russians who decided it would be good to have a nice little flat in London.
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Old Sep 27, 19, 6:02 pm
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Originally Posted by GrayAnderson View Post
I mentioned this over in the AA forum, but I really do wonder what this means for the future of Miami. Historically that has been an AA hub.
I actually think AAís Miami presence is going to suffer a bit from this. Ever since the US merger it has been clear that the USAir management team was not very qualified in managing the Miami operation. Domestic services have suffered as those passengers are now forced to connect at the cheaper CLT or PHL hubs. AA makes it very difficult for Florida customers to continue to want to use MIA as a domestic transfer hub. Premium transcon routes to LAX and SFO have seen their services and equipment rolled back significantly. Both routes are now dominated by standard domestic equipment where in the past they saw multiple 777 and 767 lie flats. I think at this point there is only one 3-class 77W service on MIA-LAX left and even this is sometimes intermittent. AA seems to be losing a lot of its premium customers which isnít overly surprising as the product and operation continuously seem to fall short of the competition these days.

This however is a massive blow to AA not only in Miami but as a whole. At one point AA basically owned Latin America and the Caribbean. Those days are long gone and this further proves that the current management team is not only completely reactive and unqualified to manage such a large airline but that theyíre now losing major players to competitors because of a lack of oversight in their own operation.

This is a great addition for DL and while LATAM isnít up to the level of quality that LAN was before it merged with TAM, itís still by most metrics the best overall product offered in South America.
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Old Sep 27, 19, 6:44 pm
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Originally Posted by beachmouse View Post
Shopping-wise, there are a lot of things that are cheap and easy to find in the USA that are extremely expensive or impossible to find back home, and it's not just luxury goods either- seems common for the folks I know with South American relatives to end up making big shopping stops at places like Walmart and Target when their extended family is in town.

And in terms of real estate, South Florida has long been a 'safe haven' for affluent folks from somewhat unstable places in the region who wanted a good place to land if conditions at home got weird. It's the same human movement later seen with Hong Kong residents moving to Vancouver when they were concerned about the changeover or affluent Russians who decided it would be good to have a nice little flat in London.
The London thing is more than a safe haven. London is actually a tax haven for foreign residents.
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Old Sep 27, 19, 9:35 pm
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Thought of the day: TAM was originally in Star Alliance, then joined OneWorld with the LAN merger. Now, there's a reasonable chance that LATAM could join SkyTeam eventually, even if at first they merely align with Delta.

I believe this would make LATAM the first airline that's been part of all three major alliances. There are certainly plenty of moves (FM to *A>ST, CO ST>*A, US *A>OW), but changing alliance twice is entirely unprecedented...
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Old Sep 27, 19, 9:43 pm
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Originally Posted by ProfRB View Post
Think about JFK-SCL-AKL!
yeah, at least 950k miles one way in D1 ...
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Old Sep 28, 19, 6:50 am
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Originally Posted by moondog View Post
It's pretty easy to get between RDU and HKG with CX if you use AA for the domestic legs. There is also the option of flying AA all the way via DFW or LAX.
Yes, I know, but I don't have status with AA (or any OW airline). I'd rather use DL/ST.
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Old Sep 28, 19, 9:20 am
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Originally Posted by rylan View Post
Well if LATAM leaves OneWorld by end of next year (or Oct 1 2020 if it is indeed a 12mo notice period), does that mean we have to wait until then for benefits? Or can DL set up an agreement so we can start earning miles/mqm prior to that?

I think they would basically have to join ST, for the codeshare and flight booking arrangements. Otherwise it'll be a mess trying to book DL domestic connecting to LATAM, or LATAM for intra-south america with DL flights intl.
It seems they will quit WO before October 2020
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Old Sep 28, 19, 9:22 am
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Originally Posted by BenA View Post
Thought of the day: TAM was originally in Star Alliance, then joined OneWorld with the LAN merger. Now, there's a reasonable chance that LATAM could join SkyTeam eventually, even if at first they merely align with Delta.

I believe this would make LATAM the first airline that's been part of all three major alliances. There are certainly plenty of moves (FM to *A>ST, CO ST>*A, US *A>OW), but changing alliance twice is entirely unprecedented...
HI BenA, they already said they won't join sky team or any other alliance.
Probably they will make specific agreements with some carriers.
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Old Sep 28, 19, 9:53 am
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Originally Posted by Sonny84 View Post
HI BenA, they already said they won't join sky team or any other alliance.
Probably they will make specific agreements with some carriers.
They could just be posturing until they see whether SkyTeam will admit them and on what terms.
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Old Sep 28, 19, 12:30 pm
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I won't complain if DL decides to connect all hubs and focus cities to MIA as part of this deal. They're already the #2 airline in MIA...and United has a significantly smaller share...so by adding some flights in they could, combined with LATAM, probably bump their traffic share to 20%, at the expense of AA.

That said, the only route I care about (AUS-MIA) isn't exactly high-yield already (BE goes for $250 RT) so the more likely scenario I see is LATAM moving frequencies from MIA to ATL based on connecting traffic, leaving just enough service to satisfy O&D needs. Given that AA only serves ~55 US destinations nonstop from MIA, connecting folks over ATL would be a win for everyone except folks in Miami.
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