MSPeconomist

I've been watching some December nonstops on the MSP-HND and vv route, currently scheduled for a 777 (but A350 on the HND lounge announcement by DL, where the return times are listed differently too), checking roughly weekly but not on any set schedule.

Today suddenly lots of inventory is zeroed out (but I didn't notice any flights that were entirely zeroes, so I don't think there's a schedule change). For example, one flight went from something like J9 C9 D9 I9 Z8 to J9 C9 D0 I0 Z0 with no apparent change in the seat map (six D1 seats occupied) while the flights are either not selling PS at all or are P9 A0 G0 according to EF. (Again, the seat maps look empty, but I realize that this doesn't indicate true availability, especially for TPAC flights.) I checked a whole week of flights in each direction and the change is consistent.

I'm wondering whether this means an aircraft change to one without a PS cabin, although DL is still labeling the D1 product as suites.

I care because I have a G ticket, with a confirmed upgrade to D1 in one direction and waitlisted in the other direction. My FCM offer for the direction that's currently booked in PS had been showing the same price (a bit under $1500, which seems like it might be the fare difference) disappeared over the weekend. In the past, this has meant that my upgrade was in the process of being confirmed, but no luck on that so far for me.

Explanations? I just can't believe that DL suddenly sold so many premium cabin seats on these flights so far in advance and yet none of the new passengers have apparently selected their seats.

ajggiant

Revenue Management? Reminds me of situations which are most apparent around the super bowl or big Las Vegas conferences where lower fare buckets are zeroed out well in advance despite all indications that few, if any seats, have actually been sold.

MSPeconomist

This is way before the Olympics and I'm not aware of any big events.

In fact, if I look at NRT itineraries for the same dates with one connection, I see mostly Z9 and G9 as expected.

mnbp

I see a similar pattern starting in October. Perhaps the flight is going less than daily this fall. Like - maybe operate a week, skip a week, maybe?

flyerCO

DL would risk losing the route authority if they did this on HND route. AA would pounce on it.

mnbp

Google Flights draws a pretty clear picture of DL's intentions in the MSP-HND market. Try a request for one way, premium economy, non-stop, and view the price graph. The days that premium economy doesn't show up correlate to MSP's observation.

Looks to me this is the precursor to a seasonal drawdown of service in the MSP-HND market - based on the observation of the price that DL is willing to sell tickets for these flights. Looks like the plan is to go to between 2-6 flights per week this fall (depending on the week) instead of the currently scheduled daily service.

flyerCO

Again I highly doubt DL would be that dumb. AA has been waiting for DL to do just that. If I remember correctly DL isceven obliged to use a 777 for the service by DOT or risk losing the route authority.

MSPeconomist

The HND lounge announcement lists the MSP route as being operated with an A350 year round.

Would DL have any old 777s sitting around without a PS cabin that could be sent to this route?

mnbp

You could be right.

I cannot however think of another explanation for DL's pricing signals other than the one I offered. The dates this fall when coach tickets are 2-3x the rest of the dates (which correlate with dates where premium economy is no longer offered for sale) seem likely to me to be dates that DL no longer intends to operate the flight.

I hope I'm wrong.

DeltaFan4Now

This would explain why I couldn't book a PS seat next July right before the Olympics - the J and Y cabins were purchasable but, as reported, at strange premiums. Booked through LAX instead, but even the supervisors and CSRs at DL were at a loss...

ajggiant

With some time passed, I do think this is looking to be a revenue management issue even though there's no obvious event driving demand (automated perhaps?). Using matrix flexible month schedule, non-stop MSP-HND with F bc=p, all dates are now selling premium economy (whereas previously some days in December were P=0). Switching to business class, Z fares are available all of December as well. However some are not cheap, the published ZQX8WPDD with a OW fare of $2156 expires 12/6, and between 12/7-12/21, cheapest published Z fare is ZHXGWNDD with a fare of $4550, with a $500 premium FRI-SUN.

Unrelated, but another extreme RM example I was just looking at was first/business on JFK-LAS on 5/17 (and pattern extends to 14-17 on outbound, 17-21 on return). Only J0D fares available on all flights, all priced at $3220 OW. 5 non-stops that day (4x739 and 1xD1 757) for a total of 96 seats, with EF showing only 3 seats out of the 96 as occupied. These are dates of ICSC conference, similar patterns applies to many other Las Vegas conference/events. At $644 per passenger hour for a 739, Delta Private Jets looks like a reasonable 35-50% premium for a group.

xliioper

ZQX8WPDD is heavily seasonally restricted (only good around Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays) when there is very limited business travel demand. There's a few other discounted Z fares for other days of the week (besides Monday through Thursday) with same seasonal restrictions. ZHXGWNDD is the norm for rest of Fall and Winter.


DAY/TIME
PERMITTED MON THROUGH THU ON EACH TRANSPACIFIC SECTOR.

SEASONALITY
OUTBOUND - PERMITTED 24NOV 19 THROUGH 06DEC 19 OR 22DEC 19 THROUGH 25DEC 19 OR 27DEC 19 THROUGH 03JAN 20 FOR EACH TRANSPACIFIC SECTOR. INBOUND - PERMITTED 15DEC 19 THROUGH 31DEC 19 FOR EACH TRANSPACIFIC SECTOR.

MSPeconomist

I'm still seeing a lot of A0 G0 combined with P9, although for D1 it's Z9 for almost every flight I checked. Coach fare class availability is generally 9 (including W9 and S9 for C+) except for the very cheap buckets.

ADDED: I'm happy to report that my upgrade just cleared (and the flight is still showing Z9, but PS is P9, A8, G0, which still seems weird unless DL has sold a lot of tickets to folks who haven't picked seats).