FSUnole03

ethernal

FSUnole03

njf1003

Because if they didn't RON it then there would be no aircraft to operate the return flight in the morning. And they're not going to want to fly it back and fly another empty one out. Much easier just to wait a few minutes. And much less costly.

ATOBTTR

This relies on the assumption that even if a 757 is available, there is a crew available to operate it and that a fresh 757 crew is currently on ready reserve at SLC waiting around at this late hour and themselves haven't timed-out or there is a 757 crew arriving at SLC who has enough hours to be able to fly a 757 to JAC and back.

SamOF

Since we're talking a planned upgauging, the answer in the particular situation you're responding to is that they would operate DCA-SLC with a fresh crew that can operate the following flights without any problem.

SamOF

I don't know any of the numbers for sure, but given DL's successful crusade against cancellations, there's no way they have any weekend operating with no spares.

kop84

I don't think anyone is arguing that DL doesn't have spares. But in this situation it's a much better idea for DL to delay 1 flight for 1 hour, than trying to scramble to upgauge a flight the next day to accommodate the 25 missed connections. Especially when it was the last flight of the day and that plane/crew was going to RON.
And aircraft swaps are much more complicated than just switching it out day of departure.

jebr

Not to mention that having 25 people delayed 8-12 hours (or more, depending on the flight schedule) is much more of an overall inconvenience than delaying, at most, ~100 passengers 50 minutes so they can make their flight. A 50-minute delay is relatively common, especially at that time of day, and I'd certainly at least understand that as a possibility when choosing that flight.

ethernal

SamOF

Well...the post both you and I responded to said that on holiday weekends DL schedules every plane they have available. And that just seems very, very unlikely.

To be clear, I'm not arguing that aircraft swaps are easy. But it's a response to the posters who say that the 25 missed connections would be necessarily stuck for days—I think it's worth pointing out that an swap is a possible solution (even if it comes with the logistical challenges that others have raised).

ethernal

SLC definitely has spares, but spares are complicated. Is it the right type of spare? Going to JAC, the only no-brainer larger size swap is a 757 due to the short runway at altitude. I doubt that SLC has a spare 757 (at least in the traditional sense - there is slack in the schedule as a poster above pointed out). There are likely spare 737s, A320s, or both - and probably a spare 717, especially given the low capital costs for those planes.

The only Delta hub that I have routinely seen aggressive plane swapping is ATL. It's the only airport in Delta's network that I don't even bother to track the inbound plane because if it is late there is a high probability of a swap (usually to the same gauge). I've seen (not frequent but at least once every few months) upgauges the morning of - often at the back of an IRROPS-filled night that likely meant a lot of extra people needing to get somewhere. I don't think I've ever seen a downgauge but I'm sure they happen too.

But a large part of that is an artifact of Atlanta's scale - which is truly unique - not just within Delta but in the US as a whole. ATL is twice as large as the next largest US hub (DFW), and ATL is about four times larger than the next largest Delta hub. That type of operational scale provides a lot of flexibility that is harder to achieve at a smaller hub (LAX, SLC, SEA, and so on).

To put this into perspective, Delta flew more people on MD-88s alone last year into and out of Atlanta than they flew into / out of SLC period. Atlanta likely has spares available of every aircraft type because they operate so many of each. The math is harder when you are a smaller hub and smaller with smaller and smaller subfleets.

kop84

I had pointed out that it wouldn't take days to rebook the 25, but only because some people would take a re-route, rented a car, booked on another carrier, or just flat turn around and go home. It would likely be 2 days for all 25 to be accommodated SLC to JAC if they all just waited in SLC for the next available seat. But that is more do to limited off-season flights to JAC from everywhere.

I think a swap would only have been a practical solution if the crew of the original flight would have timed out waiting for the 25 late connections.

Just throwing this out there too...a last minute swap to a bigger plane is going to toss everyone's seat assignments, possibly screw up and upgrades and several other possible issues for existing passengers on the plane that gets up-gauged.

ATOBTTR

That's still an assumption and the impacts of crews elsewhere would have to be factored in. That possibly means a crew that operates SLC-DCA is now "stuck" in DCA and having to dead-head back to SLC or some other station at some point. And as I do not believe DCA is a 757 base or a crew base at all for DL so a crew would possibly have to be dead-headed into DCA from their crew base (which counts against their duty day) to then fly DCA-SLC-JAC-SLC which may still imapct their ability to fly DCA-SLC-JAC-SLC all within a duty day, and also brings in the risk of any delays on their end while being dead-headed in.

I also think it's a safe bet to say that DL makes these decisions with more information available to them at the time and far more historic data than anyone on FT has access or insight too. I guess it's possible, but I highly doubt DL Ops Personnel are reading FT in situations like this and going "Eureka! Look at this genius suggestion from FlyerTalk! Why didn't we think of that!?!?"

SJC ORD LDR

I recently had the opposite happen to me when I get to the gate 8 minutes prior to departure due to a delay, but they already closed the flight and had it leave 5 minutes early. Let's just say that there were at least a half dozen angry people.