DM Observation: less complimentary first class upgrades in 2019
#47
Join Date: May 2011
Location: NYC (LGA, JFK), CT
Programs: Delta Platinum, American Gold, JetBlue Mosaic 4, Marriott Platinum, Hyatt Explorist, Hilton Diamond,
Posts: 4,861
I'm NYC based. I book all of my travel very far in the future since my leisure and work travel schedule is set way in advance. I'm at 100% C+ at booking. I have only missed one upgrade this year on PHX-JFK redeye. Otherwise, my companion and I have both been upgraded to F, including on various Delta One transcons.
#48
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 1,864
Everything is schedule based, and in NYC more so. I've started to become a student of which specific times and routes have the lowest elite usage, on both AA and Delta. Thankfully I can usually choose when I leave for business trips, so I'm trying to maximize upgrades that way.
#49
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: NY
Programs: DL DM, Ex-AA EXP, HZ Pres, MRT AMB/LTP
Posts: 130
I have the opposite experience as well- maybe 90%. Several have been RUCs that got me to #1 for 0 seats, then cleared for a no show, but hey, I'll take them. Just got 7 for 8 with a companion on the last trip, including 4 for 4 TCON.
#52
#53
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Santo Domingo, Dom. Rep. / Washington, DC
Programs: AA PPro/DL PLT, PPass, Marriott / Hilton Gold, JetBlue Mosaic, Hertz Presidents Circle, Amex Plat
Posts: 4,628
Today's DL901 flight was looking good for those who were on the upgrade list, as of this morning there were 3 in the list for 5 seats. But the early morning flight had an issue after take-off and had to return, so they rebooked many passengers and the seat vanished. Big mess at the gate area btw.
#54
Join Date: Feb 2017
Programs: DL DM, UA Gold, Alaska MVP, Bonvoy (lol) Ambassador
Posts: 2,991
To expand on this, at larger hubs or during heavier business travel hours (commute direction matters - e.g. ex-ATL on a Monday morning is harder than to-ATL on a Monday morning), fare classes purchased will make a big difference. I am 0 for 8 on flights I booked more than two weeks in advance (generally a Q fare class) but am probably 30% (some of this is from RUCs) when booking B or Y fares. There will be at least 15-20 Diamonds on high demand long routes normally, so fare class makes a big difference in where you land in the stack.
The "Upgrade Success" thread is where you probably want to go if you want more detail.
#55
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Santo Domingo, Dom. Rep. / Washington, DC
Programs: AA PPro/DL PLT, PPass, Marriott / Hilton Gold, JetBlue Mosaic, Hertz Presidents Circle, Amex Plat
Posts: 4,628
It's pretty intuitive.. anything to/ex-ATL over 2 hours will be a tough upgrade except during very odd hours.
To expand on this, at larger hubs or during heavier business travel hours (commute direction matters - e.g. ex-ATL on a Monday morning is harder than to-ATL on a Monday morning), fare classes purchased will make a big difference. I am 0 for 8 on flights I booked more than two weeks in advance (generally a Q fare class) but am probably 30% (some of this is from RUCs) when booking B or Y fares. There will be at least 15-20 Diamonds on high demand long routes normally, so fare class makes a big difference in where you land in the stack.
The "Upgrade Success" thread is where you probably want to go if you want more detail.
To expand on this, at larger hubs or during heavier business travel hours (commute direction matters - e.g. ex-ATL on a Monday morning is harder than to-ATL on a Monday morning), fare classes purchased will make a big difference. I am 0 for 8 on flights I booked more than two weeks in advance (generally a Q fare class) but am probably 30% (some of this is from RUCs) when booking B or Y fares. There will be at least 15-20 Diamonds on high demand long routes normally, so fare class makes a big difference in where you land in the stack.
The "Upgrade Success" thread is where you probably want to go if you want more detail.
JFK, surprisingly, is not bad for many routes.
#56
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: NY
Programs: DL DM, Ex-AA EXP, HZ Pres, MRT AMB/LTP
Posts: 130
It's pretty intuitive.. anything to/ex-ATL over 2 hours will be a tough upgrade except during very odd hours.
To expand on this, at larger hubs or during heavier business travel hours (commute direction matters - e.g. ex-ATL on a Monday morning is harder than to-ATL on a Monday morning), fare classes purchased will make a big difference. I am 0 for 8 on flights I booked more than two weeks in advance (generally a Q fare class) but am probably 30% (some of this is from RUCs) when booking B or Y fares. There will be at least 15-20 Diamonds on high demand long routes normally, so fare class makes a big difference in where you land in the stack.
The "Upgrade Success" thread is where you probably want to go if you want more detail.
To expand on this, at larger hubs or during heavier business travel hours (commute direction matters - e.g. ex-ATL on a Monday morning is harder than to-ATL on a Monday morning), fare classes purchased will make a big difference. I am 0 for 8 on flights I booked more than two weeks in advance (generally a Q fare class) but am probably 30% (some of this is from RUCs) when booking B or Y fares. There will be at least 15-20 Diamonds on high demand long routes normally, so fare class makes a big difference in where you land in the stack.
The "Upgrade Success" thread is where you probably want to go if you want more detail.
#57
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: RDU
Programs: DL DM+(segs)/MM, UA Ag, Hilton DM, Marriott Ti (life Pt), TSA Opt-out Platinum
Posts: 3,218
My upg rate is way down YoY. I'm at about 40% this year, was about 65% last year. I'm even having issues finding C+ seats. I'm sure where/when peeps fly makes a difference. I book typically 3-4 days out, usually on a Monday-Thursday itin. This year already I've seen more middle seats than the last 9yrs combined.
I suspect that over the last few years, DL's seen a big influx of FF's from other carriers (for many reasons). I think that's leading to issues where we see 80+ peeps on an upgrade list for an MD-88 flight. I've considered a switch to UA, since they are maybe the only U.S. carrier adding F/C+ capacity. Right now, it would be a pain as they only serve hubs from RDU (and don't have a club).
I suspect that over the last few years, DL's seen a big influx of FF's from other carriers (for many reasons). I think that's leading to issues where we see 80+ peeps on an upgrade list for an MD-88 flight. I've considered a switch to UA, since they are maybe the only U.S. carrier adding F/C+ capacity. Right now, it would be a pain as they only serve hubs from RDU (and don't have a club).
#58
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Somewhere
Programs: Delta Plat
Posts: 3,349
Today's DL901 flight was looking good for those who were on the upgrade list, as of this morning there were 3 in the list for 5 seats. But the early morning flight had an issue after take-off and had to return, so they rebooked many passengers and the seat vanished. Big mess at the gate area btw.
#59
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: CHS
Programs: UA GS, Delta PM/2MM, Marriott Ambassador Elite/Lifetime Plat, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 142
Hard to imagine there aren't any PP or EP travelers going out last minute (I assume AA clears long-booked PP and EP travelers ahead of DoD). Interesting.
#60
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: Delta DM, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, HHonrs Diamond
Posts: 1,336
This depends more on your route and time of day rather than any kind of trends unless you are comparing the same flight city pair, day of week, and time of day to a previous year, and few people really have that kind of data.
I could easily say that DM is not worth it because even last year I was 7th on the UG once as a PM for the 5:55pm 777 ATL-LAX on a Friday night. Oh, and that was with an RUC (properly applied... I called and checked) to the flight. Or that I have never had a complimentary upgrade as a DM on a U or V fare on that same flight on a Friday in over 5 years. So that one flight is not an appropriate data point for the entire system. Not too many individual flights are.
Or I could use an example like today. 920am MCO to ATL was 6th on the UG list for 3 seats as a DM on a paid U fare. I did SDC to the 620am flight and was #1 for 9 seats. 3 hour difference in flight times give a completely opposite opinion on upgrade likelihood for the anecdotal observer.
I could easily say that DM is not worth it because even last year I was 7th on the UG once as a PM for the 5:55pm 777 ATL-LAX on a Friday night. Oh, and that was with an RUC (properly applied... I called and checked) to the flight. Or that I have never had a complimentary upgrade as a DM on a U or V fare on that same flight on a Friday in over 5 years. So that one flight is not an appropriate data point for the entire system. Not too many individual flights are.
Or I could use an example like today. 920am MCO to ATL was 6th on the UG list for 3 seats as a DM on a paid U fare. I did SDC to the 620am flight and was #1 for 9 seats. 3 hour difference in flight times give a completely opposite opinion on upgrade likelihood for the anecdotal observer.