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DM Observation: less complimentary first class upgrades in 2019

DM Observation: less complimentary first class upgrades in 2019

Old Apr 12, 2019, 8:26 am
  #46  
 
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I am 8 for 9 on non BE booked flights

0 for 2 on BE booked flights.

I'm a Silver
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Old Apr 12, 2019, 8:26 am
  #47  
 
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Originally Posted by AANYC1981
I think DL is reaching critical mass in NYC....the UPG lists are insanse and they have swayed too many corporate and high end leisure travelers.

AA has literally EMPTY UPG lists hub to hub out of here plus 777s to Florida.
Originally Posted by iflyalexair
I'm NYC based. I book all of my travel very far in the future since my leisure and work travel schedule is set way in advance. I'm at 100% C+ at booking. I have only missed one upgrade this year on PHX-JFK redeye. Otherwise, my companion and I have both been upgraded to F, including on various Delta One transcons.
Everything is schedule based, and in NYC more so. I've started to become a student of which specific times and routes have the lowest elite usage, on both AA and Delta. Thankfully I can usually choose when I leave for business trips, so I'm trying to maximize upgrades that way.
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Old Apr 12, 2019, 12:35 pm
  #48  
 
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Originally Posted by Adelphos
Everything is schedule based, and in NYC more so. I've started to become a student of which specific times and routes have the lowest elite usage, on both AA and Delta. Thankfully I can usually choose when I leave for business trips, so I'm trying to maximize upgrades that way.
Exactly, timing and a million other factors impact anecdotal observations. I am 4/4 to F as a GM on upgrade eligible flights so far this year. 2 were at the window, 1 was at the gate (#1 for 2 seats), and 1 was YBYL (full flight, #2 on the upgrade list and there was a no-show in F, agent was trying to get the flight out on time and I was on a late arriving connection - it was either going to me or a basic economy non-status going into F as they didn't have time to pull someone up, so I got bumped).
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Old Apr 12, 2019, 12:40 pm
  #49  
 
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Originally Posted by Ordhater
My upgrade percentage is actually up this year, 80% compared to 54% in the same period last year, but I have seen some very tempting FCM offers, so Delta must be trying even harder to sell those seats. I'm expecting my % to decline going forward.
Originally Posted by orca15
I have the opposite experience as well- maybe 90%. Several have been RUCs that got me to #1 for 0 seats, then cleared for a no show, but hey, I'll take them. Just got 7 for 8 with a companion on the last trip, including 4 for 4 TCON.
Can we please add some routes to these upgrades? It would be good to know if certain routes have less or more upgrade potential.
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Old Apr 12, 2019, 12:44 pm
  #50  
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
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Originally Posted by HWGeeks
I am 8 for 9 on non BE booked flights

0 for 2 on BE booked flights.

I'm a Silver
You're 8 for 9 for F upgrades? As a silver??? Wow!
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Old Apr 12, 2019, 12:51 pm
  #51  
 
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Originally Posted by WillBarrett_68
You're 8 for 9 for F upgrades? As a silver??? Wow!
JFK > SDQ only missed 1 upgrade and it was because of equipment swap, lost 4 FC Seats.
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Old Apr 12, 2019, 12:59 pm
  #52  
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Originally Posted by WillBarrett_68
You're 8 for 9 for F upgrades? As a silver??? Wow!
I always always upgraded 100% of the time as a FO on this route. As a GM missed a few on friday evenings or monday mornings, as a PM 100%.
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Old Apr 12, 2019, 1:02 pm
  #53  
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Originally Posted by HWGeeks
JFK > SDQ only missed 1 upgrade and it was because of equipment swap, lost 4 FC Seats.
Today's DL901 flight was looking good for those who were on the upgrade list, as of this morning there were 3 in the list for 5 seats. But the early morning flight had an issue after take-off and had to return, so they rebooked many passengers and the seat vanished. Big mess at the gate area btw.
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Old Apr 12, 2019, 1:04 pm
  #54  
 
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Originally Posted by krakendown
Can we please add some routes to these upgrades? It would be good to know if certain routes have less or more upgrade potential.
It's pretty intuitive.. anything to/ex-ATL over 2 hours will be a tough upgrade except during very odd hours.

To expand on this, at larger hubs or during heavier business travel hours (commute direction matters - e.g. ex-ATL on a Monday morning is harder than to-ATL on a Monday morning), fare classes purchased will make a big difference. I am 0 for 8 on flights I booked more than two weeks in advance (generally a Q fare class) but am probably 30% (some of this is from RUCs) when booking B or Y fares. There will be at least 15-20 Diamonds on high demand long routes normally, so fare class makes a big difference in where you land in the stack.

The "Upgrade Success" thread is where you probably want to go if you want more detail.
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Old Apr 12, 2019, 1:14 pm
  #55  
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Originally Posted by ethernal
It's pretty intuitive.. anything to/ex-ATL over 2 hours will be a tough upgrade except during very odd hours.

To expand on this, at larger hubs or during heavier business travel hours (commute direction matters - e.g. ex-ATL on a Monday morning is harder than to-ATL on a Monday morning), fare classes purchased will make a big difference. I am 0 for 8 on flights I booked more than two weeks in advance (generally a Q fare class) but am probably 30% (some of this is from RUCs) when booking B or Y fares. There will be at least 15-20 Diamonds on high demand long routes normally, so fare class makes a big difference in where you land in the stack.

The "Upgrade Success" thread is where you probably want to go if you want more detail.
I've never looked at it this way (anything to/ex-ATL over 2 hours), but it makes a lot of sense. Even on < 2 hours last year I saw very long upgrade lists on routes like ATL-RDU, ATL-DCA, among others.

JFK, surprisingly, is not bad for many routes.
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Old Apr 12, 2019, 1:27 pm
  #56  
 
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Originally Posted by ethernal
It's pretty intuitive.. anything to/ex-ATL over 2 hours will be a tough upgrade except during very odd hours.

To expand on this, at larger hubs or during heavier business travel hours (commute direction matters - e.g. ex-ATL on a Monday morning is harder than to-ATL on a Monday morning), fare classes purchased will make a big difference. I am 0 for 8 on flights I booked more than two weeks in advance (generally a Q fare class) but am probably 30% (some of this is from RUCs) when booking B or Y fares. There will be at least 15-20 Diamonds on high demand long routes normally, so fare class makes a big difference in where you land in the stack.

The "Upgrade Success" thread is where you probably want to go if you want more detail.
I will definitely check out the Success thread. Thank you for that. I understand the peak times for business travel as I myself travel the same peak times. What I was trying to gather was the routes people had posted successes/failures in this thread. As an example, if I posted I was upgraded 4/5 times, this doesn't really help inform others unless you know where the routes.
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Old Apr 12, 2019, 2:09 pm
  #57  
 
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My upg rate is way down YoY. I'm at about 40% this year, was about 65% last year. I'm even having issues finding C+ seats. I'm sure where/when peeps fly makes a difference. I book typically 3-4 days out, usually on a Monday-Thursday itin. This year already I've seen more middle seats than the last 9yrs combined.

I suspect that over the last few years, DL's seen a big influx of FF's from other carriers (for many reasons). I think that's leading to issues where we see 80+ peeps on an upgrade list for an MD-88 flight. I've considered a switch to UA, since they are maybe the only U.S. carrier adding F/C+ capacity. Right now, it would be a pain as they only serve hubs from RDU (and don't have a club).
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Old Apr 12, 2019, 2:23 pm
  #58  
 
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Originally Posted by SDQBound
Today's DL901 flight was looking good for those who were on the upgrade list, as of this morning there were 3 in the list for 5 seats. But the early morning flight had an issue after take-off and had to return, so they rebooked many passengers and the seat vanished. Big mess at the gate area btw.
Just saw the news on that, apparently a weight and balance sensor issue or something with the wings.
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Old Apr 14, 2019, 7:44 am
  #59  
 
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Originally Posted by AANYC1981
I think DL is reaching critical mass in NYC....the UPG lists are insanse and they have swayed too many corporate and high end leisure travelers.

AA has literally EMPTY UPG lists hub to hub out of here plus 777s to Florida.
Hard to imagine there aren't any PP or EP travelers going out last minute (I assume AA clears long-booked PP and EP travelers ahead of DoD). Interesting.
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Old Apr 14, 2019, 8:08 am
  #60  
 
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This depends more on your route and time of day rather than any kind of trends unless you are comparing the same flight city pair, day of week, and time of day to a previous year, and few people really have that kind of data.

I could easily say that DM is not worth it because even last year I was 7th on the UG once as a PM for the 5:55pm 777 ATL-LAX on a Friday night. Oh, and that was with an RUC (properly applied... I called and checked) to the flight. Or that I have never had a complimentary upgrade as a DM on a U or V fare on that same flight on a Friday in over 5 years. So that one flight is not an appropriate data point for the entire system. Not too many individual flights are.

Or I could use an example like today. 920am MCO to ATL was 6th on the UG list for 3 seats as a DM on a paid U fare. I did SDC to the 620am flight and was #1 for 9 seats. 3 hour difference in flight times give a completely opposite opinion on upgrade likelihood for the anecdotal observer.
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